WEBVTT - Autumn weather preview: Why it's not time to farewell warmer days just yet 0:00:06.280 --> 0:00:06.680 Yoda. 0:00:06.720 --> 0:00:09.680 I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:16.079 daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. It may 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:18.200 not have felt like we had much of a summer 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:21.640 this year, but a cold snap in Auckland has signaled 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:25.960 that the seasons are changing. Temperatures dropped in our biggest 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.440 city as a cold front passed over much of the 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:32.920 country last week. It comes as cyclone season continues in 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:37.760 the Pacific, with Cyclone Alfred last week on Australia's East coast. 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:41.440 With those hot summer nights fading into memory, today on 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.440 the Front Page, we're looking ahead to what autumn and 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:46.960 the rest of the year could bring us with NIWA 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:48.960 meteorologist Chris Brandolino. 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:55.120 Chris, if we're just cling. 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.760 On to summer for just a few more minutes. Back 0:00:57.800 --> 0:01:01.840 in December, we were told to expect hotter, drier nights 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:05.000 over the summer. So did the weather perform as expected? 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:08.480 I would say mixed results certainly, I think areas in 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:11.360 the North Island. So if I look back at our 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:14.600 summer outlook, well we call for equal chances for normal 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:17.520 or above normal rain for the North Island full stop. 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:19.640 So there's three regions at the east, the north and 0:01:19.680 --> 0:01:22.839 the west of the North Island, and that didn't happen. 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:25.960 So we had dryness for the Upper North Island, dryness 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:29.880 from the western part of the North Island, so that 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:33.480 didn't work out great there. We had certainly some cooler 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:36.640 temperatures in January, but when you look at it as 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:40.040 a whole, I think February made up for that, and 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:43.320 in some ways December was exceptionally warm. I think it 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:46.640 was the fifth warmest December on record, or top five 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:50.640 warmest December on record from a national perspective, so I 0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:52.920 would yeah, I would describe it as mixed. Look, the 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:57.240 airflows didn't go as expected. So when we sit down 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:00.000 and we assembled these long range outlooks for three months, 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:02.960 we're trying to identify basically themes. You know, what is 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:04.240 the theme going to be. Just like if you go 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:07.120 to someone's house for dinner and I don't know, it's 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.160 a dinner party and the theme is Italian, Well, you 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:10.880 don't know exactly what's on the mail, but you have 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:13.480 an idea. I'd probably be some pasta, there'd be some sauce, 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:16.359 maybe some pizza, this, that and the other thing. So 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:18.880 that's what we're We're not giving you the menu. We're 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:22.200 giving you these themes. And sometimes those themes look they 0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:26.520 just don't they don't eventuate as expected. We look at guidance, 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:30.680 and that guidance helps us give insight as to what 0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:33.480 the themes may be. But look, if you go to 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:35.400 the doctor and you tell the doctor, hey, doc, my 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:38.240 right arm is killing me. You know, it's just it 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.040 hurts like heck, And okay, let's run some tests through 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:46.639 some exercises or exams, i should say, and tests and scans, 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:49.079 and they come back and oh, your right arms fine, 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:51.600 Oh I'm sorry. Actually is my left leg that's bothering me. 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:54.680 So if you get bad intel, you're probably gonna have 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:58.240 bad results or undesirable results. So we had winds coming 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.120 from the east and southeast. We were expecting more east 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:05.440 to northeast, and the change in airflow had a consequence 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:09.560 not only on rainfall patterns, but also temperature pattern So, yeah, 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:12.680 I would in summery, I would describe the summer outlook 0:03:12.680 --> 0:03:16.320 as mixed in terms of how it panned out. Yeah. 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:20.239 I saw one story last month about Hamilton experiencing an 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:24.040 unprecedented eleven day streak of hot days. 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:28.760 Yeah, how unusual is that it is pretty unusual what 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:32.760 happens oftentimes, particularly later in the season. When I say season, 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:37.120 I'm talking summer season, when when the soils become unusually dry, 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:40.600 and especially the second half of summer. Let's say that 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:45.760 does tend to favor hotter temperatures because the sun is 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:49.120 still obviously strong. But that energy, if the soil is 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:52.680 unusually dry, the energy is not really going to say 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:55.640 dry the soil or make it dryer. You know, it's 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:58.000 going to heat the ground. So there's energy coming from 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:01.160 the sun. And if there's moist during the ground, particularly 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:04.280 of any sensible amount of moisture, a meaningful amount, the 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:06.040 energy or the heat from the sun is going to 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:08.600 go toward drying the soils. But the soils are already dry, 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:11.160 you're gonna do a much better job in actually heating 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:14.560 the soils. So as a consequence, I think that probably 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:18.200 was a factor. So, yeah, it is unusual, but I think, 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.680 you know, given the dryness that they have experienced in 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:25.359 the Waikato, particularly in parts of well the western and 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:28.919 central portion of the North Island, it does kind of 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:32.359 add up in terms of, you know, expectations of temperature 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:36.800 when you have really dry conditions, you tend to elevate 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:39.960 the odds for really warm temperatures, and that's what we 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:43.800 had in February. Certainly in the Waikata was unusually warm. 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:47.039 Many days. There were many days where temperatures were in 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:50.360 the upper twenties, even lower thirties in places like Hamilton. 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.279 So yeah, that was certainly a standout for sure. 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:58.400 Uh. You know, it's interesting timing to go to be 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:01.000 damned though, on a day where the temperatures are rocketing 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:03.960 up and a heat wave is actually five days in 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:07.360 a row above five degrees above the normal temperatures. So 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:09.520 this is not a heat wave, it's just a burst 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:13.640 of heat and above normal temperatures. And so whether that 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:16.000 breaks records or not, you know, we've sometimes gone up 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:20.120 to thirty degrees in September in this country, So we 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:23.440 can get a hot northwest thro out of Australia heat off. 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:26.400 That hot continent comes straight on and goes over the 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:28.400 mountains and as it does that, as it drops down 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:31.560 the mountains, that lowering of air pressure means that it 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:32.760 starts to heat up. 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:40.279 Well, let's get into autumn. I think a lot of 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:44.480 the country can say that they have experienced some chilly days, 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:45.799 especially last week. 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.760 What's behind that'll buy airflow? Basically, you know weather and 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.200 weather forecast and in climate forecast and climbate outlooks. It's 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.040 a challenging business. You've got to have thick skin because, look, 0:05:56.080 --> 0:06:00.200 your predictions aren't always going to come as expected or 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:02.440 as predicted. But in a lot of ways, these things 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:04.839 can be simple. And that is airflow. Where is the 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:07.640 air coming from, And over the past couple of days 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:09.640 and probably for the next several days, we're going to 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:12.440 see a propensity for airflows to come from the south. 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.240 That is a cool wind direction. So that is driving 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:19.360 not only the cool lean where we have experienced the 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:22.400 past few days and are going to experience until about 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:24.200 the middle part of the month, but it's also going 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:27.880 to drive the dry condition autumn. The days are getting shorter, 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:31.200 so naturally we're going to get cooler with time. But 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:34.440 certainly early mid March is closer to summer than it 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:37.680 is winter. I mean, technically it is still as summer 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.960 from an astronomical perspective until I think the twenty eighth 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:43.520 or twenty first of March when we have the equinox. 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:46.200 So some people would still say it's summer, but we 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:49.320 are still expected to have summer like weather, I would think, 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.479 especially in March. So and answer to your question, it's 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:55.400 southerly airflows we've had and that is likely to be 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:59.240 a theme probably for the next I would say weakish. 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.520 But as who work away into say the middle part 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:06.640 of the month, as we get toward the fifteenth, the fourteenth, 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:09.520 the sixteenth, somewhere in there, we're probably going to see 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:12.520 more northerly quarter winds, so that could be northeast to 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:16.600 northwest somewhere in between, and that is a warmer wind direction. 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.160 So I think we'll see a decidedly turn where a 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:22.400 decided turn to warmer than usual temperature. So if you're 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:24.720 a fan of summer, you want summer like weather, you 0:07:24.840 --> 0:07:26.720 like going to the beach, you don't want to give 0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:28.800 up summer yet. Hand in there, I think as we 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:30.280 get to the middle part of the month, into the 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.280 second half of March, quite frankly, that is when we'll 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:36.800 find those really much warmer temperatures than what we're experiencing now. 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:40.720 I read in Niewa's weather outlook that overall a mix 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:45.360 of anti cyclonic flows and easterly quarter flows are expected 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:48.720 over New Zealand over the autumn season. First off, what 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.760 is an anti cyclonic flow. That's the first time I've 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.120 ever read that in a sentence. So can you break 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:55.640 that down to us in Layman's steams. 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:59.840 So, look, when there's cyclonic flows, so cyclonic, think of 0:07:59.880 --> 0:08:02.840 a cyclone. Look, oftentimes when they hear the word cyclone 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:04.240 in this part of the world, people think of like 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:08.400 tropical cyclone, like Gabrielle or so the thing tropical cyclone, Well, 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:11.480 tropical cyclone is just a type of cyclone. There's actually 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:14.720 various types of cyclone. It just means low pressure. So 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:18.560 think of cyclone low pressure and low pressure that brings, 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:22.440 generally speaking, unsettled weather, so cloud cover, rain, snow, that 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:25.560 sort of thing. The opposite of low pressure is high pressure. 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:28.280 And so instead of calling that a cyclone, we call 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.840 it an anti cyclone. So basically the opposite, so high 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.120 pressure usually brings settled weather. And when I speak to 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:38.440 younger people, the kind of the trick I give people 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:42.040 to remember these things is low pressure means lousy weather. 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:45.240 High pressure means happy weather. They both began with a 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:48.800 respective letters, So a nice weather. Remember that high pressure 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.480 is an anti cyclone, anti cyclone, it's just its formal name. 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:55.640 It's kind of technical name. So when we say anti 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:59.439 cyclonic flows, those are flows that would be associated with 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:04.120 high pressure or happy weather. Airflow around low pressure is 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:08.320 like a clock in the southern Hemisphere, it goes clockwise. Okay, 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:11.720 So think of a clock, so that airflows around that 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:17.120 low pressure or cyclone like a clockwise Around high pressure 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:21.599 or an anti cyclone, it flows counterclockwise or anti clockwise, 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:25.600 so the other way. So when we say anti cyclonic flows, 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:28.480 that's basically saying, look, high pressure is going to be 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:32.400 around New Zealand, and the flows that we're expecting are 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:35.520 going to be flows around or associated with an anti 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:39.280 cyclone or what's that once again, high pressure happy weather. 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:54.760 Speaking of tropical cyclones, we're also in that peak zone, 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:58.240 aren't We Look at Brisbane with Cyclone Alfred, it's the 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:02.480 first cyclone to make land for there since nineteen seventy four. 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:04.960 What are some of the factors that have contributed to 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:05.440 that event? 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:08.720 Well, obviously, so the reason this is the peak time 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:11.599 of year. So when you look at weather history, basically 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:15.640 late summer through about mid autumn, so think about February 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:18.680 till about Easter, you know, early mid April somewhere in there. 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:22.640 That is generally the peak tropical cyclone season, and there's 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.720 a reason for that. The ocean temperatures in the tropics 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:29.720 are typically after peak. Likewise here in New Zealand late February, 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:33.760 generally speaking, other weather factors in the atmosphere are more 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:37.240 favorable for tropical cyclones. So all these things come together 0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:41.000 so that allows for tropical cyclones to form, and this 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:43.800 is the peak of the tropical cyclone season, so that's 0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:46.960 kind of the background. So this is really not unusual. 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:50.080 We're in early March, we're kind of smack dab in 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:53.160 the heart of the kind of the apex of the 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:56.320 tropical cyclone season when we expect them the form. What's 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:59.000 happening in this particular case is that we've had a 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:03.600 tropical cyclone. It's been in the Coral Sea. It's been 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:08.040 kind of losing intensity gain an intensity based on its environment. 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:12.040 Tropical cyclones like certain things. They don't like dry air, 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:15.640 they don't like ocean temperatures below about twenty six twenty 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:19.600 seven degrees. They actually want warmer ocean temperatures, and they 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:24.160 like the atmosphere to have a wind profile where there's 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.560 not much change in wind, we call that shear. So 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:31.120 sheer basically describes the wind changing direction as you travel up, 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.160 say like in a hot air balloon, or if you 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:35.360 go up in a plane as you're taking off. Now 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:38.959 it's approaching the coast and it's slowing down, and because 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:42.439 it is slowing down, that could really enhance the rainfall 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:44.079 in that area. I've been looking at some of the 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:47.240 latest computer models and look parts of Brisbane, maybe not 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:50.760 Brisbane proper, like downtown Brisbane, but say the northern suburbs 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:55.320 or you know, say the Brisbane metropolitan area, particularly northern suburbs. 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:57.360 We're talking maybe a half meter to a meter of 0:11:57.440 --> 0:12:03.000 rain over a two or three day period. 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:08.360 We would wish to outline to Queenslanders the latest on 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.960 the four key challenges of this weather event, waves, wind, 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:17.679 rainfall and flooding. What's critical for people to understand across 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:19.600 the large scale that. 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:20.200 We're dealing with. 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:22.760 It's a large area and a large population and it's 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:25.880 important that we update people on what is occurring. You 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:30.640 will experience at least one of those key four challenges waves, wind, 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:35.440 rainfall and or flooding, and it's important that Queenslanders prepare 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:35.840 for that. 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:40.040 What's the risk of a cyclone or an X cyclone 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:43.000 as it normally is for us passing near New Zealand 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:43.600 this year? 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:47.280 So this year we've pegged it our normal to elevated. 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:51.160 So when you look at again weather history, we average 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:54.720 about er point eight of a tropical cyclone. Now obviously 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:57.080 either it's kind of binary, you get it or you don't, 0:12:57.160 --> 0:12:59.440 but the average, the long term average is right around 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:01.800 one because at that point we just rounded to one. 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:04.720 So that tells us that in any given year we 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:08.079 would expect at least one X tropical cyclone to come 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:11.760 about five hundred and fifty k's of the North Island 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:14.400 of New Zealand. So this year we're describing that risk 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.400 as normal to elevate it. And that's largely because of 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:19.680 things like La Nina, which is what we call a 0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:22.440 climate driver. So people may be wondering what is a 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:26.240 climate driver, Well, who's at the steering wheel Mother Nature's car? 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.720 Who's actually driving Mother Nature's car? And if you understand 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:32.439 who's driving the car, you have a much better idea 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.199 in which direction you're going to go. It's not a guarantee, 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:38.000 but it certainly helps to paint a picture and help 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.880 identify those themes we talked about when we're looking at 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.440 a long range outlook the next couple of months, the 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:47.199 next three months, et cetera. And so Linina we identified 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:49.520 as a climate driver. And this goes back to your 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.280 opening question about summer and how it panned out. We 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.439 did have Linina, but it was a kind of an 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:59.200 odd ball la nina. La nina generally describes the trade 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:02.880 winds and the tropical oceans of the Pacific Ocean up 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:05.679 near the dateline and the equator, or those two meet 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:08.880 going all the way to the Galopicus Islands in South America. 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.480 If you can imagine that the trade ones actually blow 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:14.439 much stronger, and that's what happens with Lininia. But when 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.360 the trade winds blow really strong, it really affects where 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:21.320 there's unusually warm ocean temperatures near the equator and unusually 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:24.960 cool ocean temperatures. And this year we had unusually cool 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.840 ocean temperatures in areas that we typically don't find your 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:33.440 quintessential classic Lininia, and as a consequence, that meant we 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:36.640 had different airflows in New Zealand. What happens in the 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:40.000 tropics actually has flowing effects here in New Zealand, and 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.000 we call that a teleconnection. It's something that happens far 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:46.960 away but can still influence our local weather. And that 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:50.080 happens with Linina and it happens with El Nino, and 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:53.320 those are two opposite phases of what we call enso 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:57.240 e Nso it just means El Nino Southern oscillation, and 0:14:57.280 --> 0:14:59.760 that's what it is. It's an oscillation between a warm 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:03.280 face Elmino in a coal phase La Nina. Right. 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:06.200 So, finally, Chris, if we get out your crystal bowl, 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.000 what about the rest of the year. Do we know 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:11.720 anything yet about what twenty twenty five may hold for us. 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.200 Here's what I'll say. Let's start with autumn and we'll 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.440 kind of encapsul ate autumn. You have to think of 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:21.880 weather as Mother Nature's mood, and you think of climate 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.760 as Mother Nature's personality. When we give you these long 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:30.200 range outlooks, we're attempting to describe Mother Nature's personality over 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:33.240 the next three months. And there will be days when 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:37.760 Mother Nature's mood is incongruent with her personality. That is expected, 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:41.000 But generally speaking, we think you know the flavor will 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.120 be they generally will be aligned. So that said, for 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:48.160 those that need the rain, and that is areas like Tetanaki, 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:52.480 areas like the Manawatu, areas like the Waikato, Unfortunately, it's 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:54.360 going to be very dry for the next few weeks. 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:59.080 I do think for areas like Tetanaki and Manawatu it 0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:01.720 may be a dry through the autumn season. So if 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:04.240 there's going to be dryness for the next three months, 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.160 it's likely to be in the western part of both island. 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:09.880 If there's going to be any wetness this autumn season, 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:13.120 again as a whole, it'll be likely the eastern part 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:17.160 of Both island. Now, in terms of temperature, we think 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.320 there's going to be a warm, lean pretty much everywhere. 0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:24.040 We feel most confident in areas not named the Eastern 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:27.240 North Island and not named the Eastern South Island, So 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.160 those two parts of the country, Eastern North and Eastern 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:32.880 South Island, because the area is likely to come off 0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:35.440 the ocean more times than not. That's an easterly wind. 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:39.120 We think about normal, average or above average, so somewhere 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:41.640 in that kind of spectrum of average to above average. 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:43.800 So what does this mean for you? You're listening to 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:45.400 this and like, that's great, Chris, you just talked a lot. 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:46.920 I don't know what the hell you're talking about. Well, 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:49.400 here's what it means. It means that there are days 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:51.520 where we're likely to be more summer like than usual, 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:54.880 especially in March, so perhaps days, more days at the beach. 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:58.120 Who can maybe extend summer a bit longer. It means 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:01.120 if you're on tank water those dry areas that we 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:03.840 talked about, or the risk for dry areas, you could 0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.800 be calling someone to fill up your tank because mother 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:09.320 nature is not doing it. If you're farmer, if you 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:11.600 just or have a large garden, that may be a 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:16.240 big impact for you for getting irregular or unreliable rainfall. 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.119 So it basically means we could have a little bit 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.160 of an extension of summer as you progress through March 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:26.320 and April. I think as we get toward April and May, 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:31.240 we are looking at increasing the odds for getting more rain, 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.800 especially Western South Island. Right now, it's been very dry 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.560 in the Western South Island. That's bad news because their 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:40.640 hydro catchments are down there. Those hydro catchments, keep in mind, 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:43.400 they generate a lot of our electricity, so when they 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:46.720 get really low that can affect electricity prices and the 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:50.240 overall electricity market. It does look like it's going to 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:52.359 be quite dry for the next week to ten days, 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:54.719 but we shouldn't get some meaningful rain in that area 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.000 over the next, say, middle part of the month. But 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.800 as we get toward winter, going even the route, I'll 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:04.120 say this not a colder than usual winter. The odds 0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:08.080 would probably favor warmer than usual conditions. We're getting quite early. 0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:10.560 This is not our official outlook quite yet, but it 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:12.919 looks like those airflows, remember I talked about its all 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:15.560 about airflows. It looks like those airflows may favor the 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:19.000 east and northeast for the winter season. And if if 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:21.919 that happens, well, look at east and northeast wind. That 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:23.960 doesn't get you to Antarctica, does it. You need a 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.720 southerly So if you don't have a lot of southerly winds, 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:28.320 you just ain't gonna get that cold. Of course, it 0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:30.800 gets cooler because our days get shorter. But in terms 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:33.239 of what is usual, it looks like it may be 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.919 a warmer than usual winter. We'll see if that happens, 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:38.240 and it looks like we may start to get better 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:40.879 chances of raying for the Upper North Island as we 0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:43.720 work away to the end of autumn May and into 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.520 winter June, July, and August. We'll hope so because it's 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.000 been very dry for the Upper North Island. And then 0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:51.800 after that, boy, you want to talk about spring and 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.600 maybe next summer. We're watching for a potential second Linina. 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:58.720 So Lininia right now is waning, and which is typical. 0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:01.240 We expect Lonina to come to lose it giddy up 0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:04.040 as you work away into the autumn season down in 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.840 the Southern Hemisphere. No La Nina or for that matter, 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:09.879 El Nino's average. They all have their own personality and 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:10.840 their own footprint. 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:16.680 Thanks for joining us, Chris. That's it for this episode 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:19.800 of The Front Page. You can read more about today's 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:24.720 stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot co dot nz. 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:29.240 The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:34.480 who is also a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.280 to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:41.360 your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:42.240 the headlines.