1 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: Yoda. 2 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. It may 4 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 2: not have felt like we had much of a summer 5 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 2: this year, but a cold snap in Auckland has signaled 6 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 2: that the seasons are changing. Temperatures dropped in our biggest 7 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 2: city as a cold front passed over much of the 8 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 2: country last week. It comes as cyclone season continues in 9 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: the Pacific, with Cyclone Alfred last week on Australia's East coast. 10 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: With those hot summer nights fading into memory, today on 11 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: the Front Page, we're looking ahead to what autumn and 12 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: the rest of the year could bring us with NIWA 13 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: meteorologist Chris Brandolino. 14 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: Chris, if we're just cling. 15 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 2: On to summer for just a few more minutes. Back 16 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 2: in December, we were told to expect hotter, drier nights 17 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: over the summer. So did the weather perform as expected? 18 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: I would say mixed results certainly, I think areas in 19 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: the North Island. So if I look back at our 20 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: summer outlook, well we call for equal chances for normal 21 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: or above normal rain for the North Island full stop. 22 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 1: So there's three regions at the east, the north and 23 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 1: the west of the North Island, and that didn't happen. 24 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 1: So we had dryness for the Upper North Island, dryness 25 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: from the western part of the North Island, so that 26 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 1: didn't work out great there. We had certainly some cooler 27 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 1: temperatures in January, but when you look at it as 28 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 1: a whole, I think February made up for that, and 29 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 1: in some ways December was exceptionally warm. I think it 30 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: was the fifth warmest December on record, or top five 31 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: warmest December on record from a national perspective, so I 32 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 1: would yeah, I would describe it as mixed. Look, the 33 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: airflows didn't go as expected. So when we sit down 34 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: and we assembled these long range outlooks for three months, 35 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: we're trying to identify basically themes. You know, what is 36 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: the theme going to be. Just like if you go 37 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: to someone's house for dinner and I don't know, it's 38 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: a dinner party and the theme is Italian, Well, you 39 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: don't know exactly what's on the mail, but you have 40 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: an idea. I'd probably be some pasta, there'd be some sauce, 41 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,359 Speaker 1: maybe some pizza, this, that and the other thing. So 42 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: that's what we're We're not giving you the menu. We're 43 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: giving you these themes. And sometimes those themes look they 44 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: just don't they don't eventuate as expected. We look at guidance, 45 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: and that guidance helps us give insight as to what 46 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: the themes may be. But look, if you go to 47 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: the doctor and you tell the doctor, hey, doc, my 48 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: right arm is killing me. You know, it's just it 49 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: hurts like heck, And okay, let's run some tests through 50 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 1: some exercises or exams, i should say, and tests and scans, 51 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: and they come back and oh, your right arms fine, 52 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: Oh I'm sorry. Actually is my left leg that's bothering me. 53 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 1: So if you get bad intel, you're probably gonna have 54 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 1: bad results or undesirable results. So we had winds coming 55 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: from the east and southeast. We were expecting more east 56 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: to northeast, and the change in airflow had a consequence 57 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: not only on rainfall patterns, but also temperature pattern So, yeah, 58 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 1: I would in summery, I would describe the summer outlook 59 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: as mixed in terms of how it panned out. Yeah. 60 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:20,239 Speaker 2: I saw one story last month about Hamilton experiencing an 61 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 2: unprecedented eleven day streak of hot days. 62 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, how unusual is that it is pretty unusual what 63 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: happens oftentimes, particularly later in the season. When I say season, 64 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: I'm talking summer season, when when the soils become unusually dry, 65 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: and especially the second half of summer. Let's say that 66 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: does tend to favor hotter temperatures because the sun is 67 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: still obviously strong. But that energy, if the soil is 68 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: unusually dry, the energy is not really going to say 69 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: dry the soil or make it dryer. You know, it's 70 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 1: going to heat the ground. So there's energy coming from 71 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: the sun. And if there's moist during the ground, particularly 72 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 1: of any sensible amount of moisture, a meaningful amount, the 73 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: energy or the heat from the sun is going to 74 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: go toward drying the soils. But the soils are already dry, 75 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: you're gonna do a much better job in actually heating 76 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: the soils. So as a consequence, I think that probably 77 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: was a factor. So, yeah, it is unusual, but I think, 78 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: you know, given the dryness that they have experienced in 79 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 1: the Waikato, particularly in parts of well the western and 80 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,919 Speaker 1: central portion of the North Island, it does kind of 81 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,359 Speaker 1: add up in terms of, you know, expectations of temperature 82 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: when you have really dry conditions, you tend to elevate 83 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: the odds for really warm temperatures, and that's what we 84 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: had in February. Certainly in the Waikata was unusually warm. 85 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:47,039 Speaker 1: Many days. There were many days where temperatures were in 86 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: the upper twenties, even lower thirties in places like Hamilton. 87 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 1: So yeah, that was certainly a standout for sure. 88 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 3: Uh. You know, it's interesting timing to go to be 89 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 3: damned though, on a day where the temperatures are rocketing 90 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 3: up and a heat wave is actually five days in 91 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 3: a row above five degrees above the normal temperatures. So 92 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 3: this is not a heat wave, it's just a burst 93 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 3: of heat and above normal temperatures. And so whether that 94 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 3: breaks records or not, you know, we've sometimes gone up 95 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 3: to thirty degrees in September in this country, So we 96 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 3: can get a hot northwest thro out of Australia heat off. 97 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 3: That hot continent comes straight on and goes over the 98 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 3: mountains and as it does that, as it drops down 99 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 3: the mountains, that lowering of air pressure means that it 100 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 3: starts to heat up. 101 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 2: Well, let's get into autumn. I think a lot of 102 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 2: the country can say that they have experienced some chilly days, 103 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:45,799 Speaker 2: especially last week. 104 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: What's behind that'll buy airflow? Basically, you know weather and 105 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: weather forecast and in climate forecast and climbate outlooks. It's 106 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: a challenging business. You've got to have thick skin because, look, 107 00:05:56,080 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: your predictions aren't always going to come as expected or 108 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: as predicted. But in a lot of ways, these things 109 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 1: can be simple. And that is airflow. Where is the 110 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: air coming from, And over the past couple of days 111 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: and probably for the next several days, we're going to 112 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: see a propensity for airflows to come from the south. 113 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: That is a cool wind direction. So that is driving 114 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: not only the cool lean where we have experienced the 115 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: past few days and are going to experience until about 116 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: the middle part of the month, but it's also going 117 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: to drive the dry condition autumn. The days are getting shorter, 118 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: so naturally we're going to get cooler with time. But 119 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: certainly early mid March is closer to summer than it 120 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: is winter. I mean, technically it is still as summer 121 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 1: from an astronomical perspective until I think the twenty eighth 122 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: or twenty first of March when we have the equinox. 123 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: So some people would still say it's summer, but we 124 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 1: are still expected to have summer like weather, I would think, 125 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,479 Speaker 1: especially in March. So and answer to your question, it's 126 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: southerly airflows we've had and that is likely to be 127 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: a theme probably for the next I would say weakish. 128 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: But as who work away into say the middle part 129 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: of the month, as we get toward the fifteenth, the fourteenth, 130 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: the sixteenth, somewhere in there, we're probably going to see 131 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: more northerly quarter winds, so that could be northeast to 132 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: northwest somewhere in between, and that is a warmer wind direction. 133 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: So I think we'll see a decidedly turn where a 134 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: decided turn to warmer than usual temperature. So if you're 135 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: a fan of summer, you want summer like weather, you 136 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: like going to the beach, you don't want to give 137 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: up summer yet. Hand in there, I think as we 138 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: get to the middle part of the month, into the 139 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: second half of March, quite frankly, that is when we'll 140 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: find those really much warmer temperatures than what we're experiencing now. 141 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 2: I read in Niewa's weather outlook that overall a mix 142 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 2: of anti cyclonic flows and easterly quarter flows are expected 143 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 2: over New Zealand over the autumn season. First off, what 144 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 2: is an anti cyclonic flow. That's the first time I've 145 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 2: ever read that in a sentence. So can you break 146 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 2: that down to us in Layman's steams. 147 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: So, look, when there's cyclonic flows, so cyclonic, think of 148 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: a cyclone. Look, oftentimes when they hear the word cyclone 149 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 1: in this part of the world, people think of like 150 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: tropical cyclone, like Gabrielle or so the thing tropical cyclone, Well, 151 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: tropical cyclone is just a type of cyclone. There's actually 152 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: various types of cyclone. It just means low pressure. So 153 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 1: think of cyclone low pressure and low pressure that brings, 154 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: generally speaking, unsettled weather, so cloud cover, rain, snow, that 155 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: sort of thing. The opposite of low pressure is high pressure. 156 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: And so instead of calling that a cyclone, we call 157 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: it an anti cyclone. So basically the opposite, so high 158 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: pressure usually brings settled weather. And when I speak to 159 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 1: younger people, the kind of the trick I give people 160 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: to remember these things is low pressure means lousy weather. 161 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: High pressure means happy weather. They both began with a 162 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: respective letters, So a nice weather. Remember that high pressure 163 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: is an anti cyclone, anti cyclone, it's just its formal name. 164 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: It's kind of technical name. So when we say anti 165 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:59,439 Speaker 1: cyclonic flows, those are flows that would be associated with 166 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: high pressure or happy weather. Airflow around low pressure is 167 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 1: like a clock in the southern Hemisphere, it goes clockwise. Okay, 168 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: So think of a clock, so that airflows around that 169 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: low pressure or cyclone like a clockwise Around high pressure 170 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:21,599 Speaker 1: or an anti cyclone, it flows counterclockwise or anti clockwise, 171 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: so the other way. So when we say anti cyclonic flows, 172 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: that's basically saying, look, high pressure is going to be 173 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: around New Zealand, and the flows that we're expecting are 174 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: going to be flows around or associated with an anti 175 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 1: cyclone or what's that once again, high pressure happy weather. 176 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 2: Speaking of tropical cyclones, we're also in that peak zone, 177 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 2: aren't We Look at Brisbane with Cyclone Alfred, it's the 178 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 2: first cyclone to make land for there since nineteen seventy four. 179 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 2: What are some of the factors that have contributed to 180 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 2: that event? 181 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: Well, obviously, so the reason this is the peak time 182 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,599 Speaker 1: of year. So when you look at weather history, basically 183 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: late summer through about mid autumn, so think about February 184 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: till about Easter, you know, early mid April somewhere in there. 185 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: That is generally the peak tropical cyclone season, and there's 186 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: a reason for that. The ocean temperatures in the tropics 187 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 1: are typically after peak. Likewise here in New Zealand late February, 188 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 1: generally speaking, other weather factors in the atmosphere are more 189 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: favorable for tropical cyclones. So all these things come together 190 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: so that allows for tropical cyclones to form, and this 191 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: is the peak of the tropical cyclone season, so that's 192 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 1: kind of the background. So this is really not unusual. 193 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: We're in early March, we're kind of smack dab in 194 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: the heart of the kind of the apex of the 195 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: tropical cyclone season when we expect them the form. What's 196 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: happening in this particular case is that we've had a 197 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: tropical cyclone. It's been in the Coral Sea. It's been 198 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: kind of losing intensity gain an intensity based on its environment. 199 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: Tropical cyclones like certain things. They don't like dry air, 200 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: they don't like ocean temperatures below about twenty six twenty 201 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: seven degrees. They actually want warmer ocean temperatures, and they 202 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: like the atmosphere to have a wind profile where there's 203 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: not much change in wind, we call that shear. So 204 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: sheer basically describes the wind changing direction as you travel up, 205 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 1: say like in a hot air balloon, or if you 206 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: go up in a plane as you're taking off. Now 207 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,959 Speaker 1: it's approaching the coast and it's slowing down, and because 208 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 1: it is slowing down, that could really enhance the rainfall 209 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,079 Speaker 1: in that area. I've been looking at some of the 210 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: latest computer models and look parts of Brisbane, maybe not 211 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: Brisbane proper, like downtown Brisbane, but say the northern suburbs 212 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 1: or you know, say the Brisbane metropolitan area, particularly northern suburbs. 213 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: We're talking maybe a half meter to a meter of 214 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: rain over a two or three day period. 215 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 4: We would wish to outline to Queenslanders the latest on 216 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 4: the four key challenges of this weather event, waves, wind, 217 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:17,679 Speaker 4: rainfall and flooding. What's critical for people to understand across 218 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 4: the large scale that. 219 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 1: We're dealing with. 220 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 4: It's a large area and a large population and it's 221 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 4: important that we update people on what is occurring. You 222 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 4: will experience at least one of those key four challenges waves, wind, 223 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 4: rainfall and or flooding, and it's important that Queenslanders prepare 224 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 4: for that. 225 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 2: What's the risk of a cyclone or an X cyclone 226 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 2: as it normally is for us passing near New Zealand 227 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 2: this year? 228 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 1: So this year we've pegged it our normal to elevated. 229 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 1: So when you look at again weather history, we average 230 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: about er point eight of a tropical cyclone. Now obviously 231 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 1: either it's kind of binary, you get it or you don't, 232 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 1: but the average, the long term average is right around 233 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: one because at that point we just rounded to one. 234 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: So that tells us that in any given year we 235 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 1: would expect at least one X tropical cyclone to come 236 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: about five hundred and fifty k's of the North Island 237 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: of New Zealand. So this year we're describing that risk 238 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: as normal to elevate it. And that's largely because of 239 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 1: things like La Nina, which is what we call a 240 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: climate driver. So people may be wondering what is a 241 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 1: climate driver, Well, who's at the steering wheel Mother Nature's car? 242 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 1: Who's actually driving Mother Nature's car? And if you understand 243 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,439 Speaker 1: who's driving the car, you have a much better idea 244 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 1: in which direction you're going to go. It's not a guarantee, 245 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: but it certainly helps to paint a picture and help 246 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: identify those themes we talked about when we're looking at 247 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 1: a long range outlook the next couple of months, the 248 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 1: next three months, et cetera. And so Linina we identified 249 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: as a climate driver. And this goes back to your 250 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 1: opening question about summer and how it panned out. We 251 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 1: did have Linina, but it was a kind of an 252 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 1: odd ball la nina. La nina generally describes the trade 253 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: winds and the tropical oceans of the Pacific Ocean up 254 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,679 Speaker 1: near the dateline and the equator, or those two meet 255 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: going all the way to the Galopicus Islands in South America. 256 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: If you can imagine that the trade ones actually blow 257 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,439 Speaker 1: much stronger, and that's what happens with Lininia. But when 258 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: the trade winds blow really strong, it really affects where 259 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: there's unusually warm ocean temperatures near the equator and unusually 260 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 1: cool ocean temperatures. And this year we had unusually cool 261 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: ocean temperatures in areas that we typically don't find your 262 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: quintessential classic Lininia, and as a consequence, that meant we 263 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 1: had different airflows in New Zealand. What happens in the 264 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: tropics actually has flowing effects here in New Zealand, and 265 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 1: we call that a teleconnection. It's something that happens far 266 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: away but can still influence our local weather. And that 267 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 1: happens with Linina and it happens with El Nino, and 268 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 1: those are two opposite phases of what we call enso 269 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: e Nso it just means El Nino Southern oscillation, and 270 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: that's what it is. It's an oscillation between a warm 271 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: face Elmino in a coal phase La Nina. Right. 272 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 2: So, finally, Chris, if we get out your crystal bowl, 273 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 2: what about the rest of the year. Do we know 274 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: anything yet about what twenty twenty five may hold for us. 275 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: Here's what I'll say. Let's start with autumn and we'll 276 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: kind of encapsul ate autumn. You have to think of 277 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: weather as Mother Nature's mood, and you think of climate 278 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: as Mother Nature's personality. When we give you these long 279 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: range outlooks, we're attempting to describe Mother Nature's personality over 280 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 1: the next three months. And there will be days when 281 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: Mother Nature's mood is incongruent with her personality. That is expected, 282 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: But generally speaking, we think you know the flavor will 283 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: be they generally will be aligned. So that said, for 284 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: those that need the rain, and that is areas like Tetanaki, 285 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: areas like the Manawatu, areas like the Waikato, Unfortunately, it's 286 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: going to be very dry for the next few weeks. 287 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: I do think for areas like Tetanaki and Manawatu it 288 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: may be a dry through the autumn season. So if 289 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: there's going to be dryness for the next three months, 290 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: it's likely to be in the western part of both island. 291 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 1: If there's going to be any wetness this autumn season, 292 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: again as a whole, it'll be likely the eastern part 293 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: of Both island. Now, in terms of temperature, we think 294 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 1: there's going to be a warm, lean pretty much everywhere. 295 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: We feel most confident in areas not named the Eastern 296 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: North Island and not named the Eastern South Island, So 297 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: those two parts of the country, Eastern North and Eastern 298 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: South Island, because the area is likely to come off 299 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 1: the ocean more times than not. That's an easterly wind. 300 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: We think about normal, average or above average, so somewhere 301 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 1: in that kind of spectrum of average to above average. 302 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: So what does this mean for you? You're listening to 303 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 1: this and like, that's great, Chris, you just talked a lot. 304 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: I don't know what the hell you're talking about. Well, 305 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 1: here's what it means. It means that there are days 306 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: where we're likely to be more summer like than usual, 307 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: especially in March, so perhaps days, more days at the beach. 308 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: Who can maybe extend summer a bit longer. It means 309 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: if you're on tank water those dry areas that we 310 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: talked about, or the risk for dry areas, you could 311 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: be calling someone to fill up your tank because mother 312 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: nature is not doing it. If you're farmer, if you 313 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: just or have a large garden, that may be a 314 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: big impact for you for getting irregular or unreliable rainfall. 315 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 1: So it basically means we could have a little bit 316 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 1: of an extension of summer as you progress through March 317 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 1: and April. I think as we get toward April and May, 318 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: we are looking at increasing the odds for getting more rain, 319 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 1: especially Western South Island. Right now, it's been very dry 320 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 1: in the Western South Island. That's bad news because their 321 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,640 Speaker 1: hydro catchments are down there. Those hydro catchments, keep in mind, 322 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 1: they generate a lot of our electricity, so when they 323 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: get really low that can affect electricity prices and the 324 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: overall electricity market. It does look like it's going to 325 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: be quite dry for the next week to ten days, 326 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,719 Speaker 1: but we shouldn't get some meaningful rain in that area 327 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: over the next, say, middle part of the month. But 328 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 1: as we get toward winter, going even the route, I'll 329 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 1: say this not a colder than usual winter. The odds 330 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: would probably favor warmer than usual conditions. We're getting quite early. 331 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 1: This is not our official outlook quite yet, but it 332 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,919 Speaker 1: looks like those airflows, remember I talked about its all 333 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: about airflows. It looks like those airflows may favor the 334 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: east and northeast for the winter season. And if if 335 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 1: that happens, well, look at east and northeast wind. That 336 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: doesn't get you to Antarctica, does it. You need a 337 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 1: southerly So if you don't have a lot of southerly winds, 338 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 1: you just ain't gonna get that cold. Of course, it 339 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 1: gets cooler because our days get shorter. But in terms 340 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,239 Speaker 1: of what is usual, it looks like it may be 341 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 1: a warmer than usual winter. We'll see if that happens, 342 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 1: and it looks like we may start to get better 343 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 1: chances of raying for the Upper North Island as we 344 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: work away to the end of autumn May and into 345 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: winter June, July, and August. We'll hope so because it's 346 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: been very dry for the Upper North Island. And then 347 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: after that, boy, you want to talk about spring and 348 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: maybe next summer. We're watching for a potential second Linina. 349 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 1: So Lininia right now is waning, and which is typical. 350 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 1: We expect Lonina to come to lose it giddy up 351 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: as you work away into the autumn season down in 352 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: the Southern Hemisphere. No La Nina or for that matter, 353 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: El Nino's average. They all have their own personality and 354 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: their own footprint. 355 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Chris. That's it for this episode 356 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 2: of The Front Page. You can read more about today's 357 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 2: stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot co dot nz. 358 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 2: The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, 359 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 2: who is also a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe 360 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 2: to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get 361 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 2: your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind 362 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 2: the headlines.