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Speaker 1: So as the idea goes, the bombing over the next

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Speaker 1: day or so, we'll see the end of the Iranian regime.

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Speaker 1: Those not dead will surrender and the people will take

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Speaker 1: control of their country. Iran meantime has promised a response

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Speaker 1: for the ages. So where are we actually at. Greg

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Speaker 1: Carlstrom is the Middle East correspondent at the Economists Political

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Speaker 1: author enders with us. Good morning, Greg, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: What's your timeline to see whether this from the United

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Speaker 1: States point of view is working or not.

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Speaker 2: It's honestly hard to say at this point because it

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Speaker 2: is hard to say what the Americans would consider working.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we've heard wildly different stories from Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: about what he's trying to achieve here. His video message

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Speaker 2: announcing the war on Saturday morning suggested that the aim

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Speaker 2: was regime change, that he wanted Iranians to come out

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Speaker 2: into the streets and overthrow the government and take control

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Speaker 2: in Iran. But then in an interview with The Atlantic

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Speaker 2: magazine that was published just about an hour ago, he

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Speaker 2: said that the Iranians want to talk, and so he's

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Speaker 2: going to talk to them. Maybe there's a diplomatic deal

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Speaker 2: that he can make with this regime that just a

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Speaker 2: day ago he was suggesting to overthrow. So I think

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Speaker 2: it's hard to assess whether this is successful or not

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Speaker 2: from the American perspective because it's not entirely clear what

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Speaker 2: the Americans want.

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Speaker 1: What's the ability of Iran to fight back? They're saying,

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Speaker 1: I know the President was on television suggesting he was

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Speaker 1: crushing us bises. I'm assuming that's not true. What's their ability.

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Speaker 3: That is not true?

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Speaker 2: We've seen Iran du for the most part is two things. First,

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Speaker 2: they have launched ballistic missile of volleys at Israel, similar

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Speaker 2: to what we saw during the war last summer, but

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Speaker 2: I would say notably, these volleys have been much smaller.

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Speaker 2: Whereas in June they were firing scores of missiles at

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Speaker 2: a time, hundreds a day, these have been some times

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Speaker 2: barrages of only a few missiles, and the damage has

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Speaker 2: been much more limited inside of Israel.

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Speaker 1: As far as the fight back, we were talking about

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Speaker 1: a moment ago with a that's limited. The Dubai situation though,

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Speaker 1: and some of the other UAA areas, does that worry

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Speaker 1: the world if it's outside of Israel, it does?

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Speaker 3: I think for a couple of reasons. One is the

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Speaker 3: economic impact in the Gulf. I mean, these are countries

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Speaker 3: that have built a reputation on being oases of stability

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Speaker 3: in a very turbulent region, and so missiles and drones

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Speaker 3: booming overhead. It's bad for business, it's bad for travel,

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Speaker 3: for tourism, for all of the things that are integral

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Speaker 3: to these countries' economies. And then the other fear is

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Speaker 3: what it might mean for oil prices. We've seen some

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Speaker 3: indications of tankers being reluctant to travel through the Strait

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Speaker 3: of Hormuz, which is the narrow waterway that passes near

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Speaker 3: Iran meeting out of the Persian Gulf. And there's a

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Speaker 3: fear that when oil markets open in a few hours,

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Speaker 3: we're going to see a spike in prices because of

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Speaker 3: concerns that supply might not be able to get the

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Speaker 3: global markets.

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Speaker 1: Could it be? And I as interest in your comments

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Speaker 1: a couple of moments ago, and when we talk about negotiation,

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Speaker 1: the bloke from Amman was in Washington meeting with JD.

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Speaker 1: Vance on Friday. He seemed optimistic the talks were going someplace.

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Speaker 1: Could it be like Greenland, suddenly We're going to invade

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Speaker 1: until suddenly Trump wakes up tomorrow morning and decides we're

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Speaker 1: not going to end this is over.

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Speaker 3: Difference here is the Americans have already invaded, and they

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Speaker 3: have set maximalist aims for this invasion. So where a

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Speaker 3: few days ago they were speaking in Geneva about a

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Speaker 3: nuclear deal, something to restrain around the nuclear program, perhaps

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Speaker 3: shut down its uranium enrichment capabilities. I'm just not sure

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Speaker 3: that's enough anymore for the Trump administration. You know, the

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Speaker 3: President came out and said, we're going to annihilate their navy,

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Speaker 3: We're going to raise their ballistic missile program. If that's

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Speaker 3: what he wants to do. If the idea here is

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Speaker 3: in Iran that is so weakened that it can no

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Speaker 3: longer be a regional power, then it's hard to see

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Speaker 3: how they're going to fly in a deal that's what

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Speaker 3: Trump wants. But it's almost impossible to imagine any Iranian

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Speaker 3: government negotiating away those parts of what it sees as

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Speaker 3: its national security doctrine.

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Speaker 1: Appreciate your insight. We'll stay and touch Greg Carstrom, who's

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Speaker 1: in Saudi Arabia at the moment, but Middle East correspondent

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Speaker 1: at the Economist. So essentially it goes three ways. Regime continuity.

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Speaker 1: In other words, nothing happens military takeover or regime collapse,

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Speaker 1: and so the next presumably, they say a couple of

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Speaker 1: days will tell us. For more from the mic Asking Breakfast,

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Speaker 1: listen live to news talks it'd be from six am weekdays,

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