1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: Now rare earth minerals a bit of a talking point 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:04,920 Speaker 1: at the moment across the globe because Donald Trump is 3 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: rushing deals with Japan and Australia and so on, and 4 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:09,879 Speaker 1: these are the elements that make up our modern tech, 5 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:12,799 Speaker 1: from evs to smartphones to military drones. And as a 6 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: result of this, Australian mining stocks are soaring some over 7 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: four hundred percent, leaving economists asking is this a boom 8 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: or a bubble now? Doctor Allen Trench is a mineral 9 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: economist and a professor at the University of Western Australia 10 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: and with US Alan Halo. Hello, do we know any 11 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: of the details of these deals? 12 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 2: Not too much, it's just a framework at this stage. 13 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:38,239 Speaker 2: I think the hard dollars are I think a billion 14 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 2: US from Australia and from the US in the next 15 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 2: six months. That's the sort of locked in component. And 16 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 2: beyond that there's promises of I've heard numbers up to 17 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 2: eight billion US, but we'll see a time we'll tell 18 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 2: on that. 19 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: But the point of these deals, presumably is to get 20 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: the minerals out of the ground fast. Yeah, it is. 21 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 2: Yes, there's a lot of these projects have been around 22 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: for decades. I was just looking at the share price 23 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 2: history over twenty years of one of the rare earth developers, 24 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 2: and the last time rare Earth peaked back in twenty eleven, 25 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: they were hoping to get into production then, and fifteen 26 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 2: years later, here we go again. 27 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: And so do you think I mean the point also 28 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 1: is to get the stuff out of the ground quickly 29 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 1: in order to cut China out. I would imagine. So 30 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: does the sale of the rare earth minerals then have 31 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 1: to be exclusive to exclusive to the US? 32 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 2: To be honest, I don't know in the framework I 33 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 2: would anticipate so from what we hear from Donald Trump, 34 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 2: of course, But my comment would be that there's plenty 35 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 2: of rare earth. I'm sure you've heard the phrase before 36 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 2: at rare earths are not actually that rare. So there 37 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 2: are lots and lots of deposits around the world, plenty 38 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 2: of them in Australia. My personal perspective is there's plenty 39 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 2: to go around. 40 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: Okay. Is there a chance that digging all the stuff 41 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: out of the ground in a rush could actually up 42 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: the value of you know, could basically burst the bubble? 43 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting, actually, rare earth prices are actually pretty 44 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 2: low at the moment, and the West as it were, 45 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: would make the argument that China are purposely keeping the 46 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 2: prices low to stop these new projects from getting into production. 47 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 2: So quite what we're hearing is that the sort of 48 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 2: the Trump and other allies are willing to set things 49 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 2: like floor prices above the current prevailing prices out of 50 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 2: China to get these projects into production. 51 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, how much what have you guys got on the 52 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: ground in Australia. 53 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 2: Lots and lots of projects I think, and of course 54 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 2: with the interest in rare earth, they're almost being discovered 55 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: by the month quite frankly, so the sort of leaders. 56 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 2: We've got one producer, Linus Corporation, that's been producing for 57 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: around a decade or so now. A couple of larger projects, 58 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: Arafura have just raised I think the number was seven 59 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 2: hundred million dollars in equity on the back of the 60 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 2: extra interest the Luka Resources about three billion dollar company, 61 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 2: and Linus themselves have again raised around about that seven hundred. 62 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 2: My apologies at Rafa was five hundred new raising, Lionus 63 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 2: just raised about seven hundred. So the interest in the 64 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 2: market is unlocking new equity into these projects. 65 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: What do you Reckon's the big strategic reason why Donald 66 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: Trumps so interested in it. 67 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 2: I would say it pretty much as you said in 68 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 2: your introduction, really from a defense perspective. You need this 69 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 2: for planes, you need it for ships, you need it 70 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,559 Speaker 2: for submarines, and all the guidance systems and all of 71 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: the things that all of those three types of defense 72 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 2: capabilities actually shoot out of themselves. So it's very much 73 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: a defense player. I would say, is it is it. 74 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: For defense or is it preparing for war? Do you think. 75 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 2: That one's about my pay grade? I'm afraid so I've 76 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 2: given that. He's renamed the Department of Defense the Department 77 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: of War and you know, let's hope it's just posturing. 78 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: Well, let's hope so. And it's fascinating to talk to you. 79 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: Thank you very much for that, Doctor Allen Trench, mineral 80 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 1: economist and a professor at the University of Western Australia. 81 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: I suppose the difference between defense and wars sometimes is 82 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: just semantics, isn't it. 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