1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,280 Speaker 1: So new insight into the damaged social welfare is doing 2 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 1: lives around the country. The Ministry of Social Development has 3 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: got these new numbers this morning. Those under twenty five 4 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: on a main benefit, we'll spend an average of twenty 5 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 1: more years on a benefit over their lifetime. Under twenty 6 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 1: fives on job seeker will spend an average of eighteen years. 7 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: Those under twenty who are receiving a youth benefit will 8 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,599 Speaker 1: spend an average of about twenty three years on a benefit. 9 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: Now the Minister of Social Development and Employment louis upstince 10 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: and chargeable of this since she's with us. Very good 11 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:26,159 Speaker 1: morning to you. 12 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 2: Good morning mine. 13 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: I remember talking to you about this. I can't remember 14 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: whether you were justin government or in opposition and we 15 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: had these numbers. Had those numbers changed up or down 16 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: in any material way since we last. 17 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: Talked, They haven't really changed. And this data is based 18 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: on a report using data from September twenty three that 19 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 2: is pretty dire and it actually shows why we have 20 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,959 Speaker 2: to do far more to the welfare certem to make 21 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: it more active and not tolerate this sort of forecast. 22 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: I feel I'm in a parallel universe. The these numbers 23 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: can't be real. Are they real? 24 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 2: They are real, and they are based on what has 25 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 2: actually happened with people who've been in the job seeker system. 26 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 2: So the model is very accurate. It is a forecast. 27 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 2: And so now it's our job in government to take 28 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 2: more steps to ensure this doesn't happen. And that's what 29 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 2: our job is ahead of. 30 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: Us, do we? So I read the numbers to mean 31 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: that if you're young, if you're twenty in this twenty 32 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: three years, you'll go in and out off of benefit, 33 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 1: on and off of benefit over that twenty three year period. 34 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: You might get a job, then you'll lose a job, 35 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: get a job, lose a job. Is that right? Or 36 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:37,279 Speaker 1: are these people just on a benefit forever? 37 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 2: No, it is on and off, as you quite rightly say. 38 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 2: But the reality is if you think about twenty three 39 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 2: years out of your working age, that's fifty percent, so 40 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 2: your income, earnings, your opportunities are far less than someone 41 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: who's been an employment and that's just something I'm not 42 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 2: willing to tolerate. That's why we've put so much work 43 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: into welfare that works, supporting young people with phone case management, 44 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 2: making that it clear to them. With the traffic light system, 45 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,679 Speaker 2: what their obligations are. We're just not willing to sit 46 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 2: back and watch that happen because those are young Kiwis 47 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 2: who deserve the same opportunities that every other key we does. 48 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 1: It's a gargantuan task then of what I say is correct, 49 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: because what you're doing is seeing people on the fringes 50 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: of the economy, aren't you. So when things are good, 51 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: they'll pick up a job for a year whatever, then 52 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: they're back unemployed again. They're probably in the wrong part 53 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: of the country. They've got those skills. Those are big 54 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: things you've got to turn around. 55 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, and absolutely, when the labor market is tight, young 56 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,839 Speaker 2: people are disproportionately affected. But the good news is when 57 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 2: the economy burns, they also pick up employment more quickly. 58 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 2: That we need to ensure they spend less time on welfare, 59 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 2: that they don't get stuck there, and that we get 60 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 2: them on track with some training, with some education, and 61 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 2: definitely with some work opportunities. That's why we've set the 62 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 2: target to reduce the number on jobs see benefit by 63 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: fifty thousand in six years, because we know work makes 64 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 2: such a difference to people's lives. 65 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,640 Speaker 1: That's the truth. Do you still as a government see 66 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: unemployment still rising. We're going to get out of this 67 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: year and into next year and it's going to be 68 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 1: the last lag figure before things turn. 69 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 2: Yeah, Unfortunately that is the reality when you come out 70 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 2: of a recession. Unemployment is the last to kind of 71 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: feel the effects. Treasury Head forecast that the peak would 72 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 2: be January, so that's likely still to be the case, 73 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 2: but it might lag a bit further than that. Look 74 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 2: at the end of the day, we're not waiting. We're 75 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 2: not waiting for it to get as bad as it 76 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: might get. We're taking active steps now to support more 77 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 2: kebs into work or to get them as ready as possible. 78 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 2: So when the economy does turn, businesses have got more confident. 79 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 2: We've got people on our books and MSD is working 80 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 2: incredibly hard so that employers can pick those kiwis up, 81 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 2: those killies live can go forward. 82 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: Well, it's hopes. So I appreciate time. Louis Upston, Minister 83 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: of Social Development and Employment, I means soberingism. For more 84 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to News Talks it' 85 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: B from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.