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Speaker 1: Either due to see a more uncertainty obviously around Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's tariffs. What a repeating headline A federal trade court

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Speaker 1: in the US is today blocked his tariff's on nearly

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Speaker 1: every country in the world. Sam Dickey from Fisher Funds

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Speaker 1: has actually just come back from a few weeks in

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Speaker 1: the US and is with us.

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Speaker 2: A Sam got any here?

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Speaker 1: So what do you know? I mean, are the tariffs

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Speaker 1: off completely now? I will back down to zero?

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Speaker 3: What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Definitely a stick in the spokes of Trump's tariff plan,

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Speaker 2: and the market liked it a little bit, so stop

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Speaker 2: market was up about one percent. But remember there was

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Speaker 2: a strong and video result after market as well. So

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Speaker 2: in the US dollar raleted a little bit. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the White House appealed. If it goes all the way

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Speaker 2: to the Supreme Court, who knows there is a conservative majority.

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Speaker 2: I just think it's another headline whipsaw.

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Speaker 3: So at the moment, do we assume do we do

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Speaker 3: we proceed as if, like from New Zealand's perspective, do

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Speaker 3: you think we proceed as if we're still got the

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Speaker 3: ten percent on us?

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Speaker 2: I think so. I think that's what I mean, that's

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Speaker 2: the feedback from that, A lot of companies we got

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Speaker 2: over there is they're proceeding as though there's going to

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Speaker 2: be this uncertainty will last for months and there will

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Speaker 2: be tariffs at least at the headline rate.

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Speaker 3: Okay, what are the people on the ground thinking about this?

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Speaker 2: There was a huge narrative shift while I was there.

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Speaker 2: So if you remember when I first went over there,

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Speaker 2: it was back in April, and you know, it was

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Speaker 2: as simple as these policies are unhinged. It's doing irreparable

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Speaker 2: damage to USA INC. It's going to permanently impact our

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Speaker 2: ability to be a trusted partner of Asia in Europe,

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Speaker 2: and it's the end of US been an exceptional place

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Speaker 2: to invest. Now by the end of the trip, similar people,

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Speaker 2: So it's companies, industry experts, politicians were saying, he's a

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Speaker 2: pretty smart negotiator, strong opening gambit, and he can expertly

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Speaker 2: walk back from the brink. So it's another reminder the

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Speaker 2: market is irrational from time to time, and sentiment swings

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Speaker 2: with a breeze.

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Speaker 1: So are you telling me that people have started to

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Speaker 1: come around to the idea that maybe he's actually not

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Speaker 1: doing something stupid.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, I think most people agree that Most of

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Speaker 2: the things he's trying to do make sense. So it

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Speaker 2: makes sense to cut the fat out of the federal

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Speaker 2: government healthcare spinning, for example, twenty percent of GDP OECD

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Speaker 2: average nine percent is a horrific amount of waste in there,

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Speaker 2: you know. Stopping people pouring across the border unchecked, that

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Speaker 2: probably makes sense. Trying to slow down the deficits and

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Speaker 2: get the out of controlled debt under control. All these

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Speaker 2: things make sense, but most people think his methods are

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Speaker 2: a non politician like and a bit of ratic.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, that's the thing that's definitely freaking people out,

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Speaker 1: isn't it. Now Do we have any handle just yet

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Speaker 1: on what the actual impact is going to be on

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Speaker 1: global growth, on what the actual impact is going to

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Speaker 1: be on inflation? Are we seeing this happen yet?

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Speaker 2: So just rewinding to mid April, so economists thought the

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Speaker 2: US economy would flirt with recession the second half, so

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Speaker 2: growth would fall to around zero point five percent. Is

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Speaker 2: consumers like you and I owned businesses set on their

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Speaker 2: hands amidst the sort of extraordinary uncertainty. But being in

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Speaker 2: the US, the best real time indicators of growth are

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Speaker 2: credit card companies and rail companies so we met MasterCard,

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Speaker 2: for example, and they've got a brilliant bird's eye view

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Speaker 2: of the US consumer, and they were telling us that

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Speaker 2: the consumer was still solid as at early May. And

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Speaker 2: then Warren Buffett said if he disappeared to a desert

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Speaker 2: island for five years, the key indicator he'd take to

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Speaker 2: tell him the health of the US economy would be

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Speaker 2: weekly rail data. And the rail companies we were meeting

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Speaker 2: were saying that things were still strong as at early May.

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Speaker 2: And on the inflation side, none of the companies are

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Speaker 2: seen inflation show up yet. So we don't know why

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Speaker 2: that is. Is it just because it's early days. Is

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Speaker 2: it because importers have power over Asian suppliers and they're

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Speaker 2: forcing suppliers to eat some of the tariffs by lowering

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Speaker 2: their prices. We don't know. It could be the calm

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Speaker 2: before the storm. But so far, so good.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So what does this mean for investors?

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Speaker 2: The water's definitely slotted from the bearish end of the

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Speaker 2: bathtub at the bullish end. So remember April eighth, the

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Speaker 2: fear gauge as we track whereas bears as they've been

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Speaker 2: in sort of quarter of a century, and there was

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Speaker 2: just that indiscriminate selling. We talked about a great buy

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Speaker 2: an opportunity for long term patient investors now the US market,

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Speaker 2: and this is where the narrative shift came. It was

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Speaker 2: up twenty five percent in six weeks, so the risks

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Speaker 2: are more balanced. And I do think regardless of this

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Speaker 2: court ruling, there's still a lot of water to go

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Speaker 2: unto the bridge. So I think while companies are not

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Speaker 2: feeling the pinch yet, we should keep watching the space closely.

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Speaker 3: Good stuff, Sam, It's always good to talk to you.

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Speaker 3: Talk to you again soon. Look after yourself, Sam Dicky

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Speaker 3: Fisher Funds for more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.

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