Speaker 1: Kiyota.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the.
Speaker 1: New Zealand Herald.
Speaker 2: New Zealand's summer is shaping up to be hotter and
Speaker 2: drier than usual. The country's forecast is shrugged off the
Speaker 2: rainy start of summer, with temperatures soaring into the thirties
Speaker 2: in some parts in the coming weeks, but moving through
Speaker 2: January and February, the weather patterns are predicted to become
Speaker 2: more Lanina like, bringing chances of more rain events.
Speaker 1: So as the country gears up for the summer break.
Speaker 1: Today on the Front Page.
Speaker 2: We're looking at what is on the cards weatherwise for
Speaker 2: the weeks and months ahead with Met Service Meteorologist John Law.
Speaker 2: First off, John, November still felt quite cold at night
Speaker 2: here in Auckland. But in the last week you can
Speaker 2: feel summer has arrived. What's changed or is it just me?
Speaker 3: Not you at all? Chelsea. We had definitely some really
Speaker 3: cool nights coming through at the end of November. The
Speaker 3: winds swung around towards the south and it brought with
Speaker 3: it that cold air up and across New Zealand. Now
Speaker 3: we started off December back in northwesterly winds now meter.
Speaker 3: I just like said as are obsessed with the wind.
Speaker 3: It really helps tell the story of where the air
Speaker 3: is coming from. And that's what we've been really seeing,
Speaker 3: is that influx of warm air that spread across New
Speaker 3: Zealand and the last few days, it has to be said,
Speaker 3: we had some really warm days and as you say,
Speaker 3: really warm nights as well. In fact, coming up over
Speaker 3: the next couple nights, particularly across the eastern side of
Speaker 3: the country, we're going to find those nighttime temperatures a
Speaker 3: real talking point. It's going to be pretty truly tricky
Speaker 3: sleeping conditions. I think people in Hawk's Bay and givesbon.
Speaker 3: Over the next ste few nights anyway.
Speaker 2: We're still seeing rain in the South Island and a
Speaker 2: lot of cloud up in north. Is this usual for
Speaker 2: this time of year, Well, yeah, it's not unheard of.
Speaker 3: And again same idea. Those northwesterly wings bring the warmth,
Speaker 3: but they also bring the moisture, particularly in those areas
Speaker 3: exposed to the west. So you can imagine that running
Speaker 3: down from north to south across the South Island is
Speaker 3: the Southern Alps and that acts as a really good
Speaker 3: barrier and block but it also forces the moisture up,
Speaker 3: generating the cloud and the rainfall.
Speaker 2: Looking ahead, what sort of summer are we expecting? Are
Speaker 2: we expecting hot and dry, muggy, a bit of both.
Speaker 3: That's the real million dollar question. It is that when
Speaker 3: we were one of those ones to be really keeping
Speaker 3: a close eye. Obviously as we head through towards someone,
Speaker 3: we're expecting the temperature to pick up. That's not unheard of.
Speaker 3: I think as we go through in towards say at
Speaker 3: the end of December start of next year, could start
Speaker 3: finding higher pressure building across the southern parts of the country,
Speaker 3: perhaps bringing some dry weather through there, but it still
Speaker 3: leaves us open to more of that warmth and moisture
Speaker 3: coming in from the north. So perhaps those more northern
Speaker 3: parts of New Zealand and around towards perhaps that eastern
Speaker 3: coast in a touch win way of cloud at warm
Speaker 3: and moisture coming through there. So perhaps warm but not
Speaker 3: necessarily dry, particularly across those northern areas. But I think
Speaker 3: perhaps the dryer weather down towards those more southern parts
Speaker 3: of New Zealand, that has to be said, though that's
Speaker 3: not the story for the whole of the summer. I
Speaker 3: think as we go through the rest of December, we
Speaker 3: might find there's still a fair bit more rain to
Speaker 3: come for those western and southern coasts of the South Island.
Speaker 2: Well, it often feels like New Zealand gets hotter later
Speaker 2: on in summer, around February, after everyone's had their holiday
Speaker 2: and his back at work.
Speaker 1: Could that be the case this summer as well? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think so.
Speaker 3: If you think about how the temperture builds, it is
Speaker 3: definitely one of those stories that you know you get
Speaker 3: your warmer tempertures towards the end of the summer, So
Speaker 3: that's definitely not out of the question. So I think
Speaker 3: we could find as we go through in towards January
Speaker 3: and right into forwards February, we'll find those tempatures continue
Speaker 3: to pick up, so we will find some wants to
Speaker 3: come through there. If we see anything in those systems
Speaker 3: developing up towards the north, they'll bring with them that
Speaker 3: warmt in from the subtropics, also that moisture as well.
Speaker 3: But it is definitely saying for keeping a close on
Speaker 3: here in the forecast room. We're keeping a very closer
Speaker 3: check on the weather up to the Pacific neighbors. That
Speaker 3: has a rule bearing on our weather down here in
Speaker 3: New Zealand as we head through the summertime, very what
Speaker 3: high temperatures actually the time of year, places like Hawk's
Speaker 3: Bay up to around about twenty nine even thirty degrees
Speaker 3: celsius as we head through the daytime. It's worth saying
Speaker 3: that with those warm nights as well, there's not much
Speaker 3: time to lose the heat of the day, so we'll
Speaker 3: find it stays very warm even through the nighttime, and
Speaker 3: with the daytime temperatures on Thursday still pretty high as well,
Speaker 3: well worth keeping an eye on the temperaures. There is
Speaker 3: going to be at a very hot story on at these
Speaker 3: eastern areas because of those warm nights coming through.
Speaker 2: Met Services forecasting maximum temperatures of up to eight degrees
Speaker 2: celsius above average for this time of year for Gisbon
Speaker 2: and Hawk's Bay and the eastern South Island midweek. How
Speaker 2: unusual is this because eight degrees does seem like quite
Speaker 2: a jump.
Speaker 4: Yeah it is.
Speaker 3: I mean we have to say, looking at the areas
Speaker 3: like Napier, it's not unheard or for this time of
Speaker 3: year that subjucts. So we are now very much in December,
Speaker 3: the warmest December templture we've got for Napier is thirty
Speaker 3: seven point five, so that's really very high. So we're
Speaker 3: looking at temperatures around about thirty one. So to get
Speaker 3: temperatures into the thirties in December, it's not unheard of,
Speaker 3: but it is unusual. So we're looking at temperatures definitely
Speaker 3: being warm to start December. Most of those higher temperatures
Speaker 3: things like that thirty seven back in nineteen ninety four
Speaker 3: right at the end of the season, back towards the
Speaker 3: Christmas New Year holiday period there. But I think it's
Speaker 3: definitely a warm start to December, let's say a hot
Speaker 3: start December.
Speaker 2: Met Services heat alerts have also begun for the summer season,
Speaker 2: with the first likely to be issued this week.
Speaker 1: First off, what.
Speaker 2: Is a heat alert and why should people take notice
Speaker 2: of them?
Speaker 3: That's a really good question. So these alets we normally
Speaker 3: do from the first of December, so literally just rolled in.
Speaker 3: And what we're looking at is two main factors that
Speaker 3: can stark those heat alerts. The first is your daytime
Speaker 3: backsim temperature being in the top one percent of the
Speaker 3: higher temperatures that we see in that location. So we
Speaker 3: use these heat alerts around about forty four different locations
Speaker 3: around each of the we've got different thresholds. For example,
Speaker 3: places like Hastens to generally tend to see warmer temperatures
Speaker 3: Hastings in christ Church, then you'd find in perhaps somewhere
Speaker 3: like ok Tiget. So there's no point having the same
Speaker 3: temperature at each of those threshold points. So we have
Speaker 3: higher thresholds those areas which tend to find higher temperatures,
Speaker 3: so for places like the eastern side of New Zealand
Speaker 3: compared to the western side. So that's one method is
Speaker 3: the daytime temperature is going to be in that top
Speaker 3: one percent of record temperatures. And the other way is
Speaker 3: by what we're looking at in the next couple of
Speaker 3: days is if we have a run of two days
Speaker 3: and an incredibly warm night, which can also truckle over
Speaker 3: that threshold temperature as well. So it's the combination of
Speaker 3: warm days. It's not necessarily as hot as those single
Speaker 3: threshold temperatures, but that combination of hot days and warm
Speaker 3: nights which mean there's no respite to come through. And
Speaker 3: it's really a case that these aren't temperatures that for
Speaker 3: many of us shouldn't cause a problem. But if you're
Speaker 3: already vulnerable to those temperatures, the very old or the
Speaker 3: very young, or if you're planning lots of outdirectivities, it's
Speaker 3: also really important to make sure you're aware that these
Speaker 3: temperatures are happening and that you can take precautions and
Speaker 3: be safe in the heat.
Speaker 2: And I suppose the fire services around the country will
Speaker 2: be taking a good notice of those as well.
Speaker 3: That's right. It's also the time we start to look
Speaker 3: at fire danger as well. The team over at FENDS
Speaker 3: Firements and Museum take a really key i on the
Speaker 3: weather as we head through towards summer. Dry conditions, hot
Speaker 3: conditions and also windy conditions, three things you don't want
Speaker 3: when you're trying to battle the fire. So it's really
Speaker 3: important to keep up to date with the fire danger again,
Speaker 3: you can find it on the mets AS website and
Speaker 3: keep up to date with the information from your local
Speaker 3: FENDS team as well, because it's really important before you
Speaker 3: head out and do your outdirectivities to be aware that
Speaker 3: if it's going to be dry, hot and windy, those
Speaker 3: are not days that you want to be thinking about fires.
Speaker 2: The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research or Niewer
Speaker 2: said that there was just over a fifty percent chance
Speaker 2: of Larninia developing by the end of the year. But
Speaker 2: the year's almost done and there's still no Larnania.
Speaker 1: Where is she.
Speaker 3: It's a very good question. Well, these things are very
Speaker 3: very we're looking at different temperatures to run through more
Speaker 3: than anything else. It's still very possible the Larninia pattern
Speaker 3: could fall through. So Larnina is one of the three
Speaker 3: conditions of the end, so the El Nino sudden oscillation pattern,
Speaker 3: there's El Nino, there's Larannina, and there's also a neutral,
Speaker 3: which is where you're not quite in the conditions for
Speaker 3: either of the other two. So it's still a possibility
Speaker 3: that as we head towards the end of the year,
Speaker 3: or perhaps in towards the style next year, we could
Speaker 3: find a short lived, weak lar Ninia pattern, although we
Speaker 3: may not find it eventuates in terms of the sea
Speaker 3: surface temperatures, which is what we look at for places
Speaker 3: like the Pacific to to get those characteristics. We may
Speaker 3: well find a somewhat of an influence from other climactic
Speaker 3: variations and controls on other parts of the globe.
Speaker 1: And with lar Ninia that comes with rain doesn't.
Speaker 3: It it does. It has different impacts on different parts
Speaker 3: of New Zealand. Generally, when we think about alan Nia,
Speaker 3: particular in the summertime, we tend to think of higher
Speaker 3: pressure out towards the eastern side of us in New Zealand,
Speaker 3: which tends to give a bit more of a northwesterly
Speaker 3: flow over the top. So you can imagine that those
Speaker 3: areas exposed to the north and to the east their
Speaker 3: places a bit like say the Bear of Plenty. Perhaps
Speaker 3: that eastern coast of the North ise seeing a touch
Speaker 3: more cloud a bit more on the way of moisture
Speaker 3: and rainfall through there, whereas other parts of the country,
Speaker 3: places like the western side of the South isd And and
Speaker 3: towards the south then have drier conditions. So it depends
Speaker 3: where you are on how the impacts will be. But
Speaker 3: of course it is only takes one system to bring
Speaker 3: a fair bit of rainfall from the north to change
Speaker 3: your entire feel for how that season's gone.
Speaker 2: I read somewhere that New Zealand's location on Earth makes
Speaker 2: it especially hard to lock in monthly or seasonal forecasts
Speaker 2: due to the extremely chaotic nature of the weather.
Speaker 3: Here is this true, and New Zealer is a fantastic
Speaker 3: place to be a weather forecast. I get so much variation.
Speaker 3: To the north of US, we have the tropics and
Speaker 3: their influence on us is really important. What happens in
Speaker 3: the tropics, has it feed down towards us, the remains
Speaker 3: of these systems run through through there. But also to
Speaker 3: the south of US we have this giant mass of ice,
Speaker 3: the Antarctic continent, which is another great the controller of
Speaker 3: climate as well, and it's the interplay between those. We're
Speaker 3: surrounded by water as well. All these factors come into
Speaker 3: bringing their own special challenges that to write in those
Speaker 3: longer term forecasts, and it's wor're saying that the longer
Speaker 3: term forecasts are much more of a guide to see
Speaker 3: how things compare to normal war and air thing ass
Speaker 3: above or below or around what you'd expect. So there's
Speaker 3: a lot more variability into in those places, particularly if
Speaker 3: you head further away. So it's definitely one to keep
Speaker 3: an eye on, but it is very hard to pin
Speaker 3: down the finer details.
Speaker 4: For me, it was quite interesting looking at London, for instance,
Speaker 4: at twenty five degrees in June, which was more what
Speaker 4: you'd see in the Barcelona at the time of the
Speaker 4: year for us. I think this summer we're going to
Speaker 4: see some sort of similar effects in the fact that
Speaker 4: we have the background woman, but also we're likely going
Speaker 4: to see marine heat waves kicking off again around the country,
Speaker 4: and that was a big driving factor behind, you know,
Speaker 4: some of those scorching temperatures we've seen in the North
Speaker 4: over the summer.
Speaker 2: My colleague Jamie Morton last month reported on research.
Speaker 1: Showing that combined land and.
Speaker 2: Sea heat waves could become a lot more common over
Speaker 2: the coming decades.
Speaker 1: Are we seeing any.
Speaker 2: Signs of concern around potential heat waves this summer.
Speaker 3: One of the reasons we have for the heat alerts
Speaker 3: is because of that importance of heat in how it
Speaker 3: impacts us as humans and how it plays through prolonged
Speaker 3: periods of warmth and heat are definitely things we keep
Speaker 3: in a close eye on, particularly those days when we
Speaker 3: start to find the temperatures towards the record end of
Speaker 3: the tempertures more than anything else, So it is an
Speaker 3: area we're concerned out here in met Service, which is
Speaker 3: the reasons we've started these trials are the heat alerts
Speaker 3: to try and see how we can help highlight those
Speaker 3: dangers through there.
Speaker 2: In terms of heat waves, is what is a heat wave?
Speaker 2: Does it have to have, you know, be above thirty
Speaker 2: forty degrees for a prolonged period of time to be
Speaker 2: called that.
Speaker 3: That's a really good question. I don't know if we
Speaker 3: actually have a definition here in New Zealand for a
Speaker 3: heat wave. What we tend to look at for our
Speaker 3: heat alerts is if the temperature is in that top
Speaker 3: one percent of the temperatures recorded in that station, and
Speaker 3: so that location is based on location and on various thresholds.
Speaker 3: Through there, we.
Speaker 2: Haven't seemed to have had as many extreme weather events
Speaker 2: this year compared to say, summer twenty twenty three. Has
Speaker 2: New Zealand's climate behald pretty much as expected this year.
Speaker 3: We've definitely had some interest in weather. We've had some
Speaker 3: heavy rainfall in that western coast of southbound. We've had
Speaker 3: that prolonged period of heavy rain down three places like
Speaker 3: Dunedin and Clusa through there as well. We haven't seen
Speaker 3: much more from that, But compared to the last few seasons,
Speaker 3: we've had some incredibly wet times and some very warm times,
Speaker 3: it hasn't been quite as extreme in that sense, but
Speaker 3: we've definitely had some interesting weather over the last years
Speaker 3: so far.
Speaker 2: And finally, I guess the question that everybody always wants
Speaker 2: to know and one that you probably get sick of
Speaker 2: hearing around this time of year. Have we any idea
Speaker 2: of what Christmas Day is going to be like?
Speaker 3: Ah, it's a question that as soon as the canda
Speaker 3: ticks over to December, people open their Advent Canada and
Speaker 3: they started to think, what is the forecasting for Christmas Day?
Speaker 3: It's still a fair way away, but I think it's
Speaker 3: one of those ones that we're keeping a real close eye.
Speaker 3: It's way too far in advance to give you any
Speaker 3: really good guidance in the forecast. Once we start to
Speaker 3: get to round about ten days out will give you
Speaker 3: a bit more of a better The best advice as
Speaker 3: ever is to keep update of the forecast even through
Speaker 3: the Christmas period. The team here will be working right
Speaker 3: their way through, so although you know most we'll be
Speaker 3: having a bit of a time off, there'll be forecasts
Speaker 3: on chef keeping you updated with all the forecasts, so
Speaker 3: you can find those and how we plan which beats
Speaker 3: you go to for your barbie. But I think it's
Speaker 3: gonna be a bit later until we get a firm
Speaker 3: forecast for Christmas Day.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, John.
Speaker 3: Thanks Chelsea.
Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
Speaker 2: at enzedherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is
Speaker 2: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also
Speaker 2: our sound engineer.
Speaker 1: I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look
Speaker 2: behind the headlines.