1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: Kiyota. 2 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the. 4 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: New Zealand Herald. 5 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 2: New Zealand's summer is shaping up to be hotter and 6 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 2: drier than usual. The country's forecast is shrugged off the 7 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: rainy start of summer, with temperatures soaring into the thirties 8 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: in some parts in the coming weeks, but moving through 9 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: January and February, the weather patterns are predicted to become 10 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 2: more Lanina like, bringing chances of more rain events. 11 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 1: So as the country gears up for the summer break. 12 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: Today on the Front Page. 13 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: We're looking at what is on the cards weatherwise for 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: the weeks and months ahead with Met Service Meteorologist John Law. 15 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 2: First off, John, November still felt quite cold at night 16 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 2: here in Auckland. But in the last week you can 17 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: feel summer has arrived. What's changed or is it just me? 18 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 3: Not you at all? Chelsea. We had definitely some really 19 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 3: cool nights coming through at the end of November. The 20 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 3: winds swung around towards the south and it brought with 21 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 3: it that cold air up and across New Zealand. Now 22 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 3: we started off December back in northwesterly winds now meter. 23 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 3: I just like said as are obsessed with the wind. 24 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,959 Speaker 3: It really helps tell the story of where the air 25 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 3: is coming from. And that's what we've been really seeing, 26 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 3: is that influx of warm air that spread across New 27 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 3: Zealand and the last few days, it has to be said, 28 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 3: we had some really warm days and as you say, 29 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 3: really warm nights as well. In fact, coming up over 30 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: the next couple nights, particularly across the eastern side of 31 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: the country, we're going to find those nighttime temperatures a 32 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 3: real talking point. It's going to be pretty truly tricky 33 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 3: sleeping conditions. I think people in Hawk's Bay and givesbon. 34 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 3: Over the next ste few nights anyway. 35 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 2: We're still seeing rain in the South Island and a 36 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: lot of cloud up in north. Is this usual for 37 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 2: this time of year, Well, yeah, it's not unheard of. 38 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 3: And again same idea. Those northwesterly wings bring the warmth, 39 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,359 Speaker 3: but they also bring the moisture, particularly in those areas 40 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 3: exposed to the west. So you can imagine that running 41 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 3: down from north to south across the South Island is 42 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,359 Speaker 3: the Southern Alps and that acts as a really good 43 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 3: barrier and block but it also forces the moisture up, 44 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 3: generating the cloud and the rainfall. 45 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 2: Looking ahead, what sort of summer are we expecting? Are 46 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: we expecting hot and dry, muggy, a bit of both. 47 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 3: That's the real million dollar question. It is that when 48 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 3: we were one of those ones to be really keeping 49 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 3: a close eye. Obviously as we head through towards someone, 50 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 3: we're expecting the temperature to pick up. That's not unheard of. 51 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 3: I think as we go through in towards say at 52 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 3: the end of December start of next year, could start 53 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 3: finding higher pressure building across the southern parts of the country, 54 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 3: perhaps bringing some dry weather through there, but it still 55 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 3: leaves us open to more of that warmth and moisture 56 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 3: coming in from the north. So perhaps those more northern 57 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 3: parts of New Zealand and around towards perhaps that eastern 58 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 3: coast in a touch win way of cloud at warm 59 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 3: and moisture coming through there. So perhaps warm but not 60 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 3: necessarily dry, particularly across those northern areas. But I think 61 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: perhaps the dryer weather down towards those more southern parts 62 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 3: of New Zealand, that has to be said, though that's 63 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 3: not the story for the whole of the summer. I 64 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 3: think as we go through the rest of December, we 65 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 3: might find there's still a fair bit more rain to 66 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 3: come for those western and southern coasts of the South Island. 67 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 2: Well, it often feels like New Zealand gets hotter later 68 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 2: on in summer, around February, after everyone's had their holiday 69 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: and his back at work. 70 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 1: Could that be the case this summer as well? Yeah, 71 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: I think so. 72 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 3: If you think about how the temperture builds, it is 73 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 3: definitely one of those stories that you know you get 74 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 3: your warmer tempertures towards the end of the summer, So 75 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 3: that's definitely not out of the question. So I think 76 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 3: we could find as we go through in towards January 77 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 3: and right into forwards February, we'll find those tempatures continue 78 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 3: to pick up, so we will find some wants to 79 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 3: come through there. If we see anything in those systems 80 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 3: developing up towards the north, they'll bring with them that 81 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 3: warmt in from the subtropics, also that moisture as well. 82 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 3: But it is definitely saying for keeping a close on 83 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 3: here in the forecast room. We're keeping a very closer 84 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 3: check on the weather up to the Pacific neighbors. That 85 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 3: has a rule bearing on our weather down here in 86 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 3: New Zealand as we head through the summertime, very what 87 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 3: high temperatures actually the time of year, places like Hawk's 88 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 3: Bay up to around about twenty nine even thirty degrees 89 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 3: celsius as we head through the daytime. It's worth saying 90 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 3: that with those warm nights as well, there's not much 91 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 3: time to lose the heat of the day, so we'll 92 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 3: find it stays very warm even through the nighttime, and 93 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 3: with the daytime temperatures on Thursday still pretty high as well, 94 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 3: well worth keeping an eye on the temperaures. There is 95 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 3: going to be at a very hot story on at these 96 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 3: eastern areas because of those warm nights coming through. 97 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 2: Met Services forecasting maximum temperatures of up to eight degrees 98 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 2: celsius above average for this time of year for Gisbon 99 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 2: and Hawk's Bay and the eastern South Island midweek. How 100 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 2: unusual is this because eight degrees does seem like quite 101 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 2: a jump. 102 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 4: Yeah it is. 103 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 3: I mean we have to say, looking at the areas 104 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 3: like Napier, it's not unheard or for this time of 105 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 3: year that subjucts. So we are now very much in December, 106 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 3: the warmest December templture we've got for Napier is thirty 107 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 3: seven point five, so that's really very high. So we're 108 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 3: looking at temperatures around about thirty one. So to get 109 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 3: temperatures into the thirties in December, it's not unheard of, 110 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 3: but it is unusual. So we're looking at temperatures definitely 111 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 3: being warm to start December. Most of those higher temperatures 112 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 3: things like that thirty seven back in nineteen ninety four 113 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 3: right at the end of the season, back towards the 114 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 3: Christmas New Year holiday period there. But I think it's 115 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 3: definitely a warm start to December, let's say a hot 116 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 3: start December. 117 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 2: Met Services heat alerts have also begun for the summer season, 118 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 2: with the first likely to be issued this week. 119 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: First off, what. 120 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 2: Is a heat alert and why should people take notice 121 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 2: of them? 122 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 3: That's a really good question. So these alets we normally 123 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 3: do from the first of December, so literally just rolled in. 124 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 3: And what we're looking at is two main factors that 125 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 3: can stark those heat alerts. The first is your daytime 126 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: backsim temperature being in the top one percent of the 127 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 3: higher temperatures that we see in that location. So we 128 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 3: use these heat alerts around about forty four different locations 129 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 3: around each of the we've got different thresholds. For example, 130 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,839 Speaker 3: places like Hastens to generally tend to see warmer temperatures 131 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 3: Hastings in christ Church, then you'd find in perhaps somewhere 132 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 3: like ok Tiget. So there's no point having the same 133 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 3: temperature at each of those threshold points. So we have 134 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: higher thresholds those areas which tend to find higher temperatures, 135 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 3: so for places like the eastern side of New Zealand 136 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 3: compared to the western side. So that's one method is 137 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:34,040 Speaker 3: the daytime temperature is going to be in that top 138 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 3: one percent of record temperatures. And the other way is 139 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:39,359 Speaker 3: by what we're looking at in the next couple of 140 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 3: days is if we have a run of two days 141 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 3: and an incredibly warm night, which can also truckle over 142 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,919 Speaker 3: that threshold temperature as well. So it's the combination of 143 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 3: warm days. It's not necessarily as hot as those single 144 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 3: threshold temperatures, but that combination of hot days and warm 145 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,919 Speaker 3: nights which mean there's no respite to come through. And 146 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 3: it's really a case that these aren't temperatures that for 147 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 3: many of us shouldn't cause a problem. But if you're 148 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 3: already vulnerable to those temperatures, the very old or the 149 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 3: very young, or if you're planning lots of outdirectivities, it's 150 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 3: also really important to make sure you're aware that these 151 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 3: temperatures are happening and that you can take precautions and 152 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 3: be safe in the heat. 153 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 2: And I suppose the fire services around the country will 154 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 2: be taking a good notice of those as well. 155 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 3: That's right. It's also the time we start to look 156 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 3: at fire danger as well. The team over at FENDS 157 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 3: Firements and Museum take a really key i on the 158 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 3: weather as we head through towards summer. Dry conditions, hot 159 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 3: conditions and also windy conditions, three things you don't want 160 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 3: when you're trying to battle the fire. So it's really 161 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 3: important to keep up to date with the fire danger again, 162 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 3: you can find it on the mets AS website and 163 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 3: keep up to date with the information from your local 164 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 3: FENDS team as well, because it's really important before you 165 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 3: head out and do your outdirectivities to be aware that 166 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 3: if it's going to be dry, hot and windy, those 167 00:07:53,040 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 3: are not days that you want to be thinking about fires. 168 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research or Niewer 169 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: said that there was just over a fifty percent chance 170 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: of Larninia developing by the end of the year. But 171 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 2: the year's almost done and there's still no Larnania. 172 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: Where is she. 173 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 3: It's a very good question. Well, these things are very 174 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 3: very we're looking at different temperatures to run through more 175 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 3: than anything else. It's still very possible the Larninia pattern 176 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 3: could fall through. So Larnina is one of the three 177 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 3: conditions of the end, so the El Nino sudden oscillation pattern, 178 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 3: there's El Nino, there's Larannina, and there's also a neutral, 179 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,079 Speaker 3: which is where you're not quite in the conditions for 180 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 3: either of the other two. So it's still a possibility 181 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:49,679 Speaker 3: that as we head towards the end of the year, 182 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 3: or perhaps in towards the style next year, we could 183 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 3: find a short lived, weak lar Ninia pattern, although we 184 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 3: may not find it eventuates in terms of the sea 185 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 3: surface temperatures, which is what we look at for places 186 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 3: like the Pacific to to get those characteristics. We may 187 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 3: well find a somewhat of an influence from other climactic 188 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:09,559 Speaker 3: variations and controls on other parts of the globe. 189 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 1: And with lar Ninia that comes with rain doesn't. 190 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 3: It it does. It has different impacts on different parts 191 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 3: of New Zealand. Generally, when we think about alan Nia, 192 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 3: particular in the summertime, we tend to think of higher 193 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 3: pressure out towards the eastern side of us in New Zealand, 194 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:25,479 Speaker 3: which tends to give a bit more of a northwesterly 195 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 3: flow over the top. So you can imagine that those 196 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 3: areas exposed to the north and to the east their 197 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 3: places a bit like say the Bear of Plenty. Perhaps 198 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 3: that eastern coast of the North ise seeing a touch 199 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 3: more cloud a bit more on the way of moisture 200 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 3: and rainfall through there, whereas other parts of the country, 201 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 3: places like the western side of the South isd And and 202 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 3: towards the south then have drier conditions. So it depends 203 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 3: where you are on how the impacts will be. But 204 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 3: of course it is only takes one system to bring 205 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 3: a fair bit of rainfall from the north to change 206 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 3: your entire feel for how that season's gone. 207 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 2: I read somewhere that New Zealand's location on Earth makes 208 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 2: it especially hard to lock in monthly or seasonal forecasts 209 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 2: due to the extremely chaotic nature of the weather. 210 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 3: Here is this true, and New Zealer is a fantastic 211 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 3: place to be a weather forecast. I get so much variation. 212 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 3: To the north of US, we have the tropics and 213 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 3: their influence on us is really important. What happens in 214 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 3: the tropics, has it feed down towards us, the remains 215 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 3: of these systems run through through there. But also to 216 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 3: the south of US we have this giant mass of ice, 217 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 3: the Antarctic continent, which is another great the controller of 218 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 3: climate as well, and it's the interplay between those. We're 219 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 3: surrounded by water as well. All these factors come into 220 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 3: bringing their own special challenges that to write in those 221 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 3: longer term forecasts, and it's wor're saying that the longer 222 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 3: term forecasts are much more of a guide to see 223 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 3: how things compare to normal war and air thing ass 224 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,719 Speaker 3: above or below or around what you'd expect. So there's 225 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 3: a lot more variability into in those places, particularly if 226 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 3: you head further away. So it's definitely one to keep 227 00:10:57,720 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 3: an eye on, but it is very hard to pin 228 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 3: down the finer details. 229 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 4: For me, it was quite interesting looking at London, for instance, 230 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 4: at twenty five degrees in June, which was more what 231 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 4: you'd see in the Barcelona at the time of the 232 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 4: year for us. I think this summer we're going to 233 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 4: see some sort of similar effects in the fact that 234 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 4: we have the background woman, but also we're likely going 235 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 4: to see marine heat waves kicking off again around the country, 236 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 4: and that was a big driving factor behind, you know, 237 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,199 Speaker 4: some of those scorching temperatures we've seen in the North 238 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 4: over the summer. 239 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 2: My colleague Jamie Morton last month reported on research. 240 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: Showing that combined land and. 241 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 2: Sea heat waves could become a lot more common over 242 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 2: the coming decades. 243 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: Are we seeing any. 244 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:50,959 Speaker 2: Signs of concern around potential heat waves this summer. 245 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 3: One of the reasons we have for the heat alerts 246 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 3: is because of that importance of heat in how it 247 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 3: impacts us as humans and how it plays through prolonged 248 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 3: periods of warmth and heat are definitely things we keep 249 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 3: in a close eye on, particularly those days when we 250 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 3: start to find the temperatures towards the record end of 251 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 3: the tempertures more than anything else, So it is an 252 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 3: area we're concerned out here in met Service, which is 253 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 3: the reasons we've started these trials are the heat alerts 254 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 3: to try and see how we can help highlight those 255 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 3: dangers through there. 256 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 2: In terms of heat waves, is what is a heat wave? 257 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 2: Does it have to have, you know, be above thirty 258 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 2: forty degrees for a prolonged period of time to be 259 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 2: called that. 260 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 3: That's a really good question. I don't know if we 261 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 3: actually have a definition here in New Zealand for a 262 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 3: heat wave. What we tend to look at for our 263 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,959 Speaker 3: heat alerts is if the temperature is in that top 264 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 3: one percent of the temperatures recorded in that station, and 265 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 3: so that location is based on location and on various thresholds. 266 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 3: Through there, we. 267 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 2: Haven't seemed to have had as many extreme weather events 268 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 2: this year compared to say, summer twenty twenty three. Has 269 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,680 Speaker 2: New Zealand's climate behald pretty much as expected this year. 270 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 3: We've definitely had some interest in weather. We've had some 271 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 3: heavy rainfall in that western coast of southbound. We've had 272 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 3: that prolonged period of heavy rain down three places like 273 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 3: Dunedin and Clusa through there as well. We haven't seen 274 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 3: much more from that, But compared to the last few seasons, 275 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 3: we've had some incredibly wet times and some very warm times, 276 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 3: it hasn't been quite as extreme in that sense, but 277 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 3: we've definitely had some interesting weather over the last years 278 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 3: so far. 279 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,959 Speaker 2: And finally, I guess the question that everybody always wants 280 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 2: to know and one that you probably get sick of 281 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 2: hearing around this time of year. Have we any idea 282 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 2: of what Christmas Day is going to be like? 283 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 3: Ah, it's a question that as soon as the canda 284 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 3: ticks over to December, people open their Advent Canada and 285 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 3: they started to think, what is the forecasting for Christmas Day? 286 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 3: It's still a fair way away, but I think it's 287 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 3: one of those ones that we're keeping a real close eye. 288 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 3: It's way too far in advance to give you any 289 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 3: really good guidance in the forecast. Once we start to 290 00:13:57,840 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 3: get to round about ten days out will give you 291 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 3: a bit more of a better The best advice as 292 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 3: ever is to keep update of the forecast even through 293 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 3: the Christmas period. The team here will be working right 294 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 3: their way through, so although you know most we'll be 295 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 3: having a bit of a time off, there'll be forecasts 296 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 3: on chef keeping you updated with all the forecasts, so 297 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 3: you can find those and how we plan which beats 298 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 3: you go to for your barbie. But I think it's 299 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 3: gonna be a bit later until we get a firm 300 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 3: forecast for Christmas Day. 301 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, John. 302 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 3: Thanks Chelsea. 303 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You 304 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 305 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 2: at enzedherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is 306 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 2: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also 307 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 2: our sound engineer. 308 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: I'm Chelsea Daniels. 309 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you 310 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look 311 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 2: behind the headlines.