1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: Quite a tumultuous here in the markets. Fair number of 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: hits and missus Sam Dickey from Fisher Funds as well. 3 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: Then run through it, Sam, Good evening to you. 4 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:08,879 Speaker 2: Good evening, Ryan. 5 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:10,880 Speaker 1: We'll get to that in just a second. But first, 6 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: the Fed has decided to cut, and the markets have 7 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: reacted quite strongly. They don't like it, but not because 8 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: of the cut, but because of the slower cutting cycle 9 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 1: that's being forecasted. 10 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 2: Right, that's right. 11 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 3: It was a hawkish cut, if that makes sense to you, 12 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 3: So you know, fewer rate cuts projected, and in fact, 13 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:35,599 Speaker 3: the FED raised the forecast for twenty twenty five core inflation, 14 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 3: which is obviously their primary mandate. So the market took 15 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 3: it as quite hawkish and took a lot of rate 16 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 3: cuts out of the curve, and interest rates went up 17 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 3: and equity markets went down. 18 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 2: Yeah. 19 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting that one, because I mean, they're obviously a 20 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: bit a bit looser with their monetary policy when it 21 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: comes to inflation than we are. I mean, can you 22 00:00:55,800 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 1: imagine our Reserve Bank making that call if inflation were 23 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: so stubborn? Here anyway, we'll go through. We'll go through 24 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: the rest of your top six. So we've done Number one. 25 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: Number two the Trump bump. 26 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 2: Yes, and US exceptionalism. 27 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 3: So we are obviously Trump won and promised three things, 28 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 3: really tax cuts, He promised to get rid of wasteful 29 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 3: red tape, and to cut a lot of fat, lot 30 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 3: of fat out of the federal government, so pretty powerful words. 31 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 2: The market reacted strongly. 32 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 3: And let's not forget Rylan that before these fighting words, 33 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 3: the strength of the US economy had been the number 34 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 3: one positive surprise for stock markets for the past eighteen months. 35 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 3: So if we take a step back, the US was 36 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 3: supposed to be in recession by now, according to economists, 37 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 3: eighteen months ago. And then you compare that to the 38 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 3: other big blocks, so China, which continues to struggle under 39 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 3: huge debt burdens and are structurally challenged Europe, so all 40 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 3: of that's known as US exceptionalism, and then we get 41 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 3: the Trump bump. And so astonishingly before today, just to 42 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 3: define what the Trump bump is, since Trump was elected 43 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 3: a few weeks ago, the US stopped, it was up 44 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 3: about seven or eight percent, China was down five, and 45 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: Europe was flat. So that is very rare outperformance in 46 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 3: such a short space of time. 47 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: It certainly is, and the Trump bump on the cryptocurrency 48 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: has been pretty massive too, hasn't it. Number three. This is, 49 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: by the way, if you just joining us Sam Dickey 50 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 1: from Fisher Funds with basically the top six in terms 51 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: of market movements for the year. Number three. 52 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, well number three. 53 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 3: I mean it's not necessarily market movements, but sort of 54 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 3: big hits and misses that caught our eye in the 55 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 3: market's eye. So the umbrella reward I guess for down 56 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 3: up in a flash was the japan flash crash. So 57 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 3: it seemed like a very big deal at the time 58 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 3: we spoke about it in August. 59 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 2: And Japan has been trying to manufacture. 60 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 3: Inflation really since the Japanese bubble popped about thirty five 61 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,239 Speaker 3: years ago, so they kind of piggybacked on the once 62 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 3: in forty years spike and inflation that we're in the 63 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 3: rest of the globe experienced in twenty twenty two to 64 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 3: drive through higher wages. But they were just a little 65 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 3: bit too late, so they tried to raise interest rates 66 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 3: just as the rest of the world was cutting, and 67 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 3: that popped a huge speculative bubble in borrowing Japanese year 68 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 3: at zero percent interest rates and investing that money around 69 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 3: the world and hot assets, and because of that kind 70 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 3: of countertrend rate rise by the BOJ, the Japanese equity 71 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 3: market had has worst down day in thirty five years, 72 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 3: down twelve percent on the day, but it's recovered all 73 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 3: of that lost ground because the BOJ said it wouldn't 74 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 3: raise interest rates anymore until financial termol had calmed down. 75 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 1: Number four. You've got humanoids here? Are they going to 76 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: be a big deal? 77 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 2: Yes? 78 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 3: I meet George sitson a little bit of left field there, Ryan, 79 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 3: just to sort of keep us on our toes, But yeah, 80 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 3: I mean, so what is a humanoid. It's a robot 81 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 3: that looks like a human and is designed to copy 82 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 3: human actions, so like walking upright and using its fingers, 83 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 3: because the world is built for humans. Now, there are 84 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 3: only four million robots in operation today. But you've got 85 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 3: to remember, over the next twenty five years, the keen 86 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 3: age population is going to shrink by about three hundred 87 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 3: million people. 88 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 2: So it's a big deal. 89 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 3: And in theory, we need to replace those workers, so 90 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 3: we're going to need hundreds of millions of these humanoids. 91 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 2: So it's a really early stage thematic to keep an 92 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 2: eye on. 93 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: Very interesting. Number five the award for market Darling is 94 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: passing from in Vidia to Tesla. 95 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,359 Speaker 2: Why yes, super interesting. 96 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 3: So up until Trump got elected, for the year, the 97 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 3: Nvidia stop price was up about one hundred and eighty percent. 98 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 3: This is on November fourth day before he got elected, 99 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 3: and Tesla was flat for the year, so huge dispersion there. 100 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 3: And in the few weeks since Trump got elected, Nvidia 101 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 3: is down five percent and Tesla's up eighty percent. So 102 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 3: in short, it pays to be a friend of Trump. 103 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 3: And of course Musk is promising to run the Department 104 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 3: of Government Efficiency, which if you think about that acronym, 105 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 3: it's dodge, where he will go into the federal government 106 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 3: and rip out two trillion dollars of wasteful spending and implicitly, 107 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 3: because this is not explicitly, implicitly, in return, he's going 108 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 3: to get tariffs of on competing Chinese EV's imposed and 109 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 3: he may win the race to dominate your timeless vehicle market. 110 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 2: So to be fair that. 111 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,279 Speaker 3: Some other things that have happened, like you know, General 112 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 3: Motors set it would stop funding Crews, which is a 113 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 3: potential autonomous vehicle competitor to Tesla. 114 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 2: But it is a crazy passing of the market, Darling Baton. 115 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 1: Yeah absolutely, I mean in Vidio had grown and Athlet's 116 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: be honest, they had their time in the sun. Have 117 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,679 Speaker 1: you number six got a chip bro? What's this about 118 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:29,920 Speaker 1: the chip wars? 119 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:34,159 Speaker 3: I'm assuming, yeah, the ultra high consequence computer chip wars. 120 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 3: So the story there, of course is given the manufacturing 121 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 3: of advanced computer chips is considered the most complex and 122 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 3: precise manufacturing process humans have ever undertaken. And given these 123 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 3: chips drive almost every bit of technology would be touched 124 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 3: and underpin economies and militaries. 125 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 2: It's no wonder this is enormous power struggle. 126 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 3: So a few factoids there when you think about I 127 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: guess the US and China chip wars that is going on. 128 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 3: So China imports more chips and it doesn't oil, so 129 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 3: it's at a natural disadvantage there. And Taiwan, or to 130 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:10,039 Speaker 3: be more precise, t STMC, the company controls ninety percent 131 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 3: of high end chip manufacturing, so you can imagine the 132 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 3: natural tensions there. And the US even has an active 133 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 3: government called the Chips Act, which is funneling billions of 134 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 3: dollars into US chip designers and manufacturers to make sure 135 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 3: they win this war. 136 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 2: So some very. 137 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 3: Big, sort of above our pay grade type things to 138 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 3: keep an eye on there. 139 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: Absolutely, Hey, thanks so much, Sam, good to have you 140 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: on the show, good to have you running through your 141 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 1: top six hits, and missus on the stock market for 142 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: the year that is, Sam Dickey Fisher Funds. 143 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive. 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