1 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: Kielda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, 2 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. The 3 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:20,239 Speaker 1: latest Taxpayers Union Courier poll and one News Varian poll 4 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: show the coalition government is losing ground. Both show the 5 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: left block of Labor, the Greens and to Boti Maldi, 6 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: would have enough support to form the next government. 7 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 2: It's all. 8 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: While Prime Minister Christopher Luxen's first post cab of the 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: year was marred by questions about ax David Seymour, the 10 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: man set to become Deputy PM in May. Opposition leader 11 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: Chris Hipkins has gone as far to call for Seymour 12 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: to be removed as a minister over what he's calling 13 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: a pattern of behavior. So is this the start of 14 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: a fracture that can't be healed and does the public 15 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: have good cause to be concerned about where we're headed today? 16 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:04,919 Speaker 1: On the front page, Newstalg z B political editor Jason 17 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,479 Speaker 1: Wols is with us to discuss the state of politics. 18 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: First off, Jason, what do you make of the latest 19 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: polling numbers? 20 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 3: Well, we've got polls coming out of our ears. We 21 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 3: had a long period where we didn't really hear anything 22 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 3: from any polster. And then earlier this week, in the 23 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 3: space of two hours, we got two pretty significant polls, 24 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 3: and listen, they're both quite similar. But the part that 25 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 3: I would say that is worth focusing on is the 26 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 3: fact in both the taxpayers Union funded Caurier poll and 27 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 3: the One News variant poll, it both showed that if 28 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 3: there was an election the day after the poll was done, 29 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 3: that there would be a change in government. It showed 30 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 3: that the left block had overtaken the right block in 31 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 3: both of them, which is a considerable develop It's not 32 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 3: just one rogue poll showing this. Considering they happen so 33 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 3: close together of a similar period of time, it does 34 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 3: give a lot of palls for thought in terms of 35 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 3: what Kiwis are thinking about the government right now. So 36 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 3: I would say, if there's any main takeaway from this, 37 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 3: it's not about the personal popularity of the prime ministers. 38 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 3: Try saying that four times in a row. It's not 39 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 3: about the really the intricate movements of the parties. It's 40 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 3: about that left block versus that right block. And both 41 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 3: of these polls show that we've had a change. 42 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: What Americans leading to that change? 43 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 3: Oh, it's the economy, stupid and that's not me calling 44 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 3: you stupid. That is the age old phrase that has 45 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 3: been etched in the memory of every politician from around 46 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 3: the world because it is the economy. I mean, you 47 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 3: just have to look at the right track wrong track. 48 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 3: In both of these polls, which were pretty much remarkably similar, 49 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 3: showing that about fifty percent of people in both polls 50 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 3: thought that we were going in the wrong direction as 51 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:45,959 Speaker 3: a country, and about thirty three or thirty seven percent 52 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,239 Speaker 3: in between, the two of them show that we're on 53 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 3: the right track. And now, if you're a government, those 54 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 3: are terrible numbers for you because you don't win elections 55 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 3: when people think that your country is going in the 56 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 3: wrong direction and you're in charge of turning that metric around. 57 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 3: So I think that that is the one thing that 58 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 3: has been driving all of these polls. It does have 59 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 3: a bit of a silver lining for the coalition government 60 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 3: because we have yet to see the full impact of 61 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 3: the interest rates from the Reserve Bank coming down being 62 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 3: fully felt by New Zealanders. It takes anywhere between six 63 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 3: to twelve, sometimes even eighteen months for that to fully 64 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 3: filter through when those mortgage rates come down, and that 65 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 3: leads to people having more money in their back pockets. 66 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 3: But now, yes, it looks grim for the government, but 67 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 3: the Prime Minister and he has been arguing that things 68 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 3: will turn around. 69 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: What do you think the general public actually thinks a 70 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: right direction is Because you mentioned inflation, it's down, cost 71 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: of living is easy, and interest rates are falling and 72 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 1: the seeds of the government's latest push for economic growth 73 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: are yet to be sown. 74 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 3: Right, yeah, well exactly, And I think the right track 75 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 3: wrong track. It's really sort of like a gut instinct, 76 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 3: you know. Somebody asked you whether we are on the 77 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 3: right or the wrong track, and you just kind of 78 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 3: think about it for a couple of seconds. You say, 79 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 3: I think we're on the wrong track. I think we're 80 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 3: on the right track. And there's a number of things 81 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 3: that feed into that, but I would say that the 82 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 3: main one is essentially the economy. People are just feeling poorer, 83 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 3: you know, if you're a if you're a homeowner at 84 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 3: the moment, like I am in Wellington, you're getting hammered 85 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 3: by higher interest rates because mine haven't filtered through yet, 86 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 3: and there's still a few quite a few other people 87 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 3: in that position as well as well as rates, you know, 88 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 3: so they're both coming at you and you're feeling poorer, 89 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 3: and if you're feeling poorer, you're much likely to say 90 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 3: that we're on the wrong track. 91 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 4: Yep, why not? 92 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 5: Why not? 93 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 1: Why not? 94 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 3: What's the problem The Speaker has said, no, the spegacy. 95 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 5: Yes, I didn't know that. Yeah, all right, there we go, 96 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 5: turned out the vegacyd we couldn't do it. Oh well, 97 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 5: bureocracy is alive and well in New Zealand. But sometimes 98 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 5: things are worth doing for a good course, they probably 99 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 5: should not provable, do you think I think? Well, I 100 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 5: thought we had it to be hones. Of surprise, we 101 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:01,359 Speaker 5: weren't allowed to. 102 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 1: What trouble is David Seymour causing Luxon at the moment. 103 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 3: Oh it's a big old headache for the Prime Minister. 104 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 3: And listen, I say right off the back, this isn't 105 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 3: a coalition destroying spat that Seymour and Luxon are having. Yes, 106 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 3: it looks a little bit silly, Yes, it looks like 107 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 3: they're on different pages on things, but it's not going 108 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 3: to bring down the government. David Seymour was extremely bold 109 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 3: when he told arn Z that the Prime Minister he 110 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 3: was the one that was ill informed. You'll remember that 111 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 3: it was the Prime Minister saying that David Seymour writing 112 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 3: in defense of Pulkinghorn when he was an electra MP 113 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two and before the trial had even 114 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 3: started or anything along that area had even kicked off. 115 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 3: The Prime Minister said that was ill advised, and David 116 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 3: Seymour went on oran z ed and say that the 117 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 3: Prime Minister saying that he was ill advised was ill advised. 118 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 2: He's aware of my views on that, but as you 119 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 2: all know, he wasn't the keviinet minister at the time. 120 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: But there's been no breach to the Cabinet manual. He 121 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 2: didn't do this as a minister. I just think seiy 122 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 2: Leader was ill a. That's my personal view on it. 123 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 2: But ultimately our question's man. 124 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: Do you regret writing that letter? 125 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 5: No? 126 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 6: And my response to that is what sill advised is 127 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 6: commenting when you don't know all the facts and criticizing 128 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 6: a local em pay for doing their work, which is 129 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 6: standing up for their constituent. 130 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 3: You just don't see those sorts of things. And one 131 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 3: of the most wisest people in all of politics is 132 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 3: somebody called Richard Harmon, who's been around since the eighties 133 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 3: or even before reporting on politics. He's seen it all, 134 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 3: and he said in his blog, and not since nineteen 135 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 3: eighty eight when Richard Prebble openly criticized David LONGI have 136 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 3: we seen such a challenge to a prime minister as 137 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 3: that of David Seymour to Christopher Luxen So and he's 138 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 3: got a point. You just simply do not see ministers 139 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 3: undermining their prime minister like this. Sort of the saving 140 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 3: grace that Seymour has here is that he is from 141 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 3: another party and so the Prime Minister can't just dismiss 142 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 3: them from cabinet without there being some serious repri cushions. 143 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, are you surprised how they're talking about each other 144 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 1: in public? I guess it's unusual for a prime minister 145 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: and deputy relationship. I'm thinking Peter's in the same boat 146 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: as well. 147 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it is quite unusual. And up till 148 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 3: this point, I've been very supportive of the Prime Minister 149 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 3: the way that he's ran the coalition government because he's 150 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 3: not just looking at this term, he's looking beyond into 151 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 3: the term after and potentially the term after that as well. 152 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 3: And to get there, we're in a modern MMP environment. 153 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 3: You need friends, you need support partners. So it's not 154 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 3: just about them toying the line this time around, but 155 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 3: it's also about getting them on board next time. And 156 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 3: part of that is allowing these smaller parties to not 157 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 3: lose their identity, which means it's fine when Winston mouths 158 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 3: off about something, gets fine when David Seymour gets really 159 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 3: into the weeds about some national policy issue that he 160 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 3: doesn't like, that is all absolutely fine. In fact, it's 161 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 3: encouraged because it means the base still sees that these 162 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 3: parties have not lost their identity. But this is a 163 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 3: whole nother level. I mean, it's just frankly, it's about 164 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 3: respect and David Seymour is not showing the Prime Minister respect. 165 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 3: We do know that on Monday nights, after both of 166 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 3: the respective leaders made their comments about each other, they 167 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 3: did have a meeting. Can you describe the tenor of 168 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 3: your meeting with him last night? 169 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: Yeah? 170 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 5: I was very good, very constructive, for obviously talking about 171 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 5: how is the government going to open up to overseas investment, 172 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 5: which I'm responsible for, how are we going to do 173 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 5: a deregulation program, how are we going to get through 174 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 5: this budget? And save New Zealand just money by reducing 175 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 5: data literalist payments. 176 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 6: Steak. 177 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 3: I don't know if I've ever heard a single time 178 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 3: in my almost ten years in Parliament when I've heard 179 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 3: someone say something constructive that they didn't actually mean that 180 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 3: it was a bit of a biffer. 181 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 1: Is the problem here that Seymour, who's never been actually 182 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: in charge before, is still kind of in an opposition mode. 183 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is he's still doing 184 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 1: the stunts. He's driving a land Rover up on Parliament steps, 185 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: for example, and he's still got the soundbitees, he's still 186 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: got the quips. Does he need to rain that in 187 00:08:58,120 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: a bit? No? 188 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 3: I don't think he does. And I still side with 189 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 3: the Prime Minister's thinking on this is that you need 190 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 3: the smaller parties to retain their identity. Act's identity is 191 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 3: inextricably linked to that of David Seymour. I mean, you've 192 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 3: got to remember that David Seymour brought this party from 193 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 3: zero point five percent in the polls to now it 194 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 3: was a nine or ten percent in the polls. He 195 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 3: brought a plethora of new MPs to the table to 196 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 3: the point where he's now sitting around the cabinet table 197 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 3: to the point where in a couple of months he 198 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 3: is going to be the deputy prime minister. He needs 199 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 3: to be able to do what he has been doing 200 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 3: in so far as that he needs to be able 201 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 3: to galvanize that support and let his supporters know how 202 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 3: he is fighting for them in parliament. 203 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 1: Will he become a bit of a headache though? Was 204 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: deputy pm? 205 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,839 Speaker 3: The standard shifts when you're the deputy prime minister, and 206 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 3: in so far as the fact that when the Prime 207 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 3: Minister is away, it's the deputy prime Minister who's in charge, 208 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 3: and that means doing post cabinet press conferences, that means 209 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 3: stepping in for the Prime minister in the house. That's 210 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 3: a lot harder to do. When you have to act 211 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 3: on behalf of the Prime minister. You cannot have your 212 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 3: own identity. Then you need to be talking as the 213 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 3: prime minister. You need to be a statesman, not a studman. 214 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 1: Do you think that having Winston Peters first then Seymour 215 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: second when it comes to that deputy prime minister role 216 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 1: was strategic. I'm thinking who would you prefer to have 217 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: reined in and buy your side on the election trail. 218 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 3: I can tell you already know the answer to that question, 219 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 3: but I do think that it is strategic. I think 220 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,839 Speaker 3: that probably Winston Peters fought quite hard to be the 221 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,439 Speaker 3: man that was doing it first rather than second. Now 222 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 3: there's two lines of thinking here. The first is, you 223 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 3: know there's a recency bias, so that would favor the 224 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 3: person that has been a deputy Prime minister closer to 225 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 3: the election time because still fresh in people's memories. But 226 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 3: you have to remember Winston Peters usually and historically has 227 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:09,079 Speaker 3: seen his vote rise closer to election time, where he's 228 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 3: been able to be a little bit more Winston and 229 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 3: a little bit more cavalier about things. And he would 230 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 3: have had that in mind in the coalition talks when 231 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 3: National and Act and New Zealand First were around that 232 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 3: table to say, well, if I want to be my 233 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 3: best political self, if you will closer to the election time, 234 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 3: I need the space to be able to do that. 235 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 3: You can't be a statesman when you're also kicking off 236 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 3: about what most people, all the Prime Minister has perceived 237 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 3: to be side shows. 238 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 1: Now we've got these salvation Armies State of the Nation 239 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five out this morning and it makes for 240 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 1: some grim reading. Actually, we've got rising unemployment, with more 241 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: than four hundred thousand people needing welfare support in December 242 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, the highest number by the way since 243 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties. And food insecurity among families with children 244 00:11:56,720 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: has also risen sharply, with half of all fit children 245 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 1: reported as going without food often or sometimes. Figures like 246 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: this do kind of make you realize perhaps why people 247 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 1: are discontent with the government and think why the country's 248 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: moving on in the wrong direction. 249 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 3: Hey, well, yeah, absolutely, And now all of these sort 250 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 3: of reports will give sort of credence to the cause 251 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 3: from the left that the government need to be doing 252 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 3: more in a lot of places in terms of their 253 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 3: economic priorities. And I mean you can almost script the 254 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 3: response from the Prime Minister on this issue before he 255 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:34,200 Speaker 3: even makes his comments later today, which is that he'll 256 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 3: say the best way to get people out of poverty 257 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 3: is to grow the pie, to grow the economy, and 258 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 3: that's why he'll write off a bunch of things that 259 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 3: the government's been doing. I'm not saying he's wrong, in 260 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 3: fact that it is economically speaking, that is one of 261 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 3: the ways to do it. But it really leaves them 262 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,559 Speaker 3: quite vulnerable to attack from the opposition, And HARKing back 263 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 3: to the polls, when you see there is so little 264 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 3: between the left and the right, reports like this really 265 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 3: do go to feed the narrative that the government is 266 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 3: not helping as much it needs to be. 267 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 4: I think the people can see that the country's going 268 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 4: in the wrong direction. Actually, Labor has been going up 269 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 4: and all of the recent poles that have been released 270 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 4: since Christmas. I'm encouraged by that. But we know we've 271 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 4: got a lot of work to do. You know, we've 272 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 4: still got a year and a half to go. So 273 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 4: polls at this point, you know, are interesting and it's 274 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 4: nice to be doing well in them, but you know, 275 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 4: I think we've still got a fair amount of water 276 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 4: to flow under the bridge. 277 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 1: Just yet. When we talk about the polls, Labor jumped 278 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 1: four points to thirty three percent. Can you think of 279 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: anything the party's done to deserve that jump? I mean, 280 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 1: have they been a good opposition thus far? Is it 281 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 1: just a case of the government underperforming so they look 282 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: better in comparison? 283 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 3: Oh, listen, the best thing that the Labor Party have 284 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 3: done is not do anything. They've let the government kind 285 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 3: of almost fall over themselves. And that's not the sense 286 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 3: that the government has technically done anything that would warrant 287 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 3: the fact that they're in They fell into the twenties. 288 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 3: It's again, it comes down to the economy. There's nothing 289 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 3: that the opposition can do about that in opposition apart 290 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 3: from taking cracks at the government and saying things that 291 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 3: aren't good enough. And that's because of you. But eventually 292 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 3: the Labor Party is going to have to start introducing 293 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 3: some policies. They are going to have to start talking 294 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 3: in a very tangible way about what they would do 295 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 3: to make things better. Now. I know it's still early days, 296 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 3: it's still about a year and a half till the election, 297 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 3: but those conversations need to start happening because voters need 298 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 3: to have some alternatives to the barracking. 299 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: And while we're talking about the left block as well, 300 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: Tabati Mali is down three points on five percent. Is 301 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: this surprising because I thought the party had gained some 302 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 1: serious momentum there for a second, No, it's. 303 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 3: Not surprising at all. The last poll that was taken 304 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 3: from TV and Z was December ninth, and that incorporated 305 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 3: the HIKOI, that incorporated Hannah Rachdi Mighty Klark's viral Harker. 306 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 3: They had a lot, a lot of momentum, and between 307 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 3: then and now we really haven't heard all that much 308 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 3: from Tiparty Mardi. They were up at win Tonguey, Yes 309 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 3: they were in the news for that, but there was 310 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 3: nothing further to add in the respect of their momentum 311 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 3: than than what we saw in December. And it goes 312 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 3: to show, you know, Tiparty Mary are at their best 313 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 3: poland wise when they're really really able to get in 314 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 3: front of a camera and mobilize that support. So I 315 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised to see more of that sort of 316 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 3: action closer to election time to be able to bolster 317 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 3: their support. 318 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: And what about the Greens. They're steady on ten percent 319 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: after a pretty dramatic year last year, to say the least, 320 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: do you reckon things will only continue to improve for 321 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: them with Mortimer Davidson's return. 322 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 3: It's hard to say. I mean, the Greens do also 323 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 3: suffer from the same problem as Labor is that people 324 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 3: do get a little bit annoyed and a little bit 325 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 3: tired of the repetitive criticism from the opposition, which puts 326 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 3: them in a really hard place. Because if you are 327 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 3: the opposition, your job is to oppose and where you know, 328 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 3: press gallery journalists don't do soft news on parties just 329 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 3: trying to get the good word out there. It's not 330 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 3: how we fold political parties to account. So the best 331 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 3: way that you can get in the news is with 332 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 3: ideas or with you know, frankly quite witty and clever 333 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 3: criticisms of the government. So you know, Chloe Sawbrick is 334 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 3: good in that respect. However, you know she has the 335 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 3: tendency to sometimes sound a little bit like a university professor, 336 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 3: and it's quite hard to put that into a sound bite. 337 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 3: That's not to say what she's saying isn't good, it 338 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 3: just sometimes can get a little bit long winded. So 339 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 3: I reckon they've got the same problem as labor. They're 340 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 3: going to have to start proposing for something soon. And 341 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 3: I know that they have been, but we need a 342 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 3: bit more of a green wave for people to start 343 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 3: taking some more notice. But we still got time. 344 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: And what do you reckon the coalition needs to do 345 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 1: to improve their numbers within the next What are we 346 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: a year and a half out? 347 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 3: I reckon they just need to wait it out. I mean, 348 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 3: you need the business of governing. You need to create 349 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 3: strong message that you're creating growth, that you're trying to 350 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 3: create jobs, that you're bringing inflation down. Nikola Willis it's 351 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 3: all she talks about, and quite rightly, she's the finance minister. 352 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 3: They just need to wait for the economic prospects in 353 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 3: this country to turn around, when those interest rate cuts 354 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,199 Speaker 3: start flowing through, and then their fortunes will turn around. 355 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 3: Then they can change the narrative slightly. But until that happens, 356 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 3: it's going to be very very hard for them to 357 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 3: turn that right track wrong track measure around. 358 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Jason, No problem at all. That's 359 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 1: it for this episode of The Front Page. You can 360 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at 361 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 1: enzdherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is produced 362 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our 363 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page 364 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune 365 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.