1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,600
Speaker 1: That's right at the war Where are we at? Ambrose

2
00:00:01,600 --> 00:00:05,000
Speaker 1: Evans Pritchard read. It makes a very compelling case that

3
00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,240
Speaker 1: this thing is over in four weeks, because that's about

4
00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:09,760
Speaker 1: when the petrol reserves in America get drained, the strait

5
00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:11,879
Speaker 1: is closed, No L and G is getting through. Trump

6
00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:15,120
Speaker 1: cannot tolerate one hundred dollars a barrel and will capitulate.

7
00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,000
Speaker 1: China can hold out. The Iranians if they have kept

8
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,159
Speaker 1: a bunch of attack drones back, can hold out to

9
00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:22,720
Speaker 1: then go for some fuel sites in the Arab States.

10
00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:25,520
Speaker 1: You see as theory, it's actually not to be dismissed.

11
00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,479
Speaker 1: But that's not the only scenario. Bluster a site, and

12
00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:30,240
Speaker 1: there is plenty of that coming out of the White House.

13
00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,559
Speaker 1: It does seem as far as these things go, to

14
00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,639
Speaker 1: be going well. The Navy is gone, commercial planes are

15
00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,440
Speaker 1: slowly flying again. Israel seems devastatingly effective in Lebanon. The

16
00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:43,159
Speaker 1: Kurds are in place with CIA supplied weaponry ready to

17
00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,720
Speaker 1: jump the border. Whether the people rise up when that happens,

18
00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:48,840
Speaker 1: I've got no idea which could lead you to believe

19
00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,280
Speaker 1: that what we end up with is a well, not

20
00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,600
Speaker 1: a complete transition, but more a half baked mess with

21
00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,720
Speaker 1: vacuums and disorder, but a country that looks radically different

22
00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:58,440
Speaker 1: to what it looked like a year ago, and with

23
00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,160
Speaker 1: a decimated ability to be in US clear threat that

24
00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:04,040
Speaker 1: could be sold by Trump as a win. Have a

25
00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,160
Speaker 1: look at what Condoleeza Rice said about that yesterday. She

26
00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,280
Speaker 1: makes sense. Of course, the people could rise along with

27
00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,080
Speaker 1: the kurd storm, the barracks, get the Shah's sun ensconced,

28
00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,760
Speaker 1: and it's what loosely you would call a complete victory,

29
00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,200
Speaker 1: which would be historic if you followed the story of

30
00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,720
Speaker 1: American interventionism over the years. The cold hard truth, though,

31
00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,000
Speaker 1: is Trump an election year, cannot afford to lose. So

32
00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,560
Speaker 1: as makeshift and spontaneous this may appear to some, He's

33
00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,680
Speaker 1: not an idiot and never underestimate his passion for self preservation.

34
00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:34,720
Speaker 1: It's why, by the way, for those who worry the

35
00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,440
Speaker 1: reason Russia and China are nowhere to be seen for

36
00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,560
Speaker 1: their Iranian friends, self interest is the greatest weapon and

37
00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,600
Speaker 1: motivator of all. If this works, though, as in the

38
00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,319
Speaker 1: Iranian regime, we have known, whether it's killing an evil

39
00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,680
Speaker 1: is wiped off the face of the earth, then everyone

40
00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,200
Speaker 1: from Macron to starm at a Clark to Hepkins will

41
00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:53,640
Speaker 1: be working very hard to explain why sitting around for

42
00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,720
Speaker 1: decades on end gas bagging about how unacceptable it all is,

43
00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,360
Speaker 1: and yet achieving nothing is somehow a more effective stategy

44
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:04,000
Speaker 1: than actually taking the problem and solving it. For more

45
00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,200
Speaker 1: from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to News Talks

46
00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,400
Speaker 1: at B from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast

47
00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:11,320
Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.