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Speaker 1: So in this country seemingly never ending desire to see

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Speaker 1: the worst, the government produced our worst case scenario around

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Speaker 1: the war. Inflation could hit three point seven percent. That's

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Speaker 1: of the war goes all year. Nikola Willis is the

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Speaker 1: Finance minister. Good morning, Good morning, Mike. What are you

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Speaker 1: doing peddling misery with the worst case scenario? Why are

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Speaker 1: we all most straight to the worst case scenario?

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Speaker 2: Well, I've been clear that there are a range of scenarios,

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Speaker 2: simply the case. We don't know what's going to happen

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Speaker 2: with spectors that are outside of our control. We don't

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Speaker 2: know how long the straight up hormones will stay closed.

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Speaker 2: We don't know whether our Asian refineries we'll be able

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Speaker 2: to access alternative supplies of oil in sufficient quantities, and

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Speaker 2: we don't know whether importers will be able to access

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Speaker 2: alternative supplies of refined products. So we're preparing for all

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Speaker 2: of those scenarios, but of course we remain hopeful that

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Speaker 2: we're in a situation where we've got enough cover, where

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Speaker 2: refineries can keep producing enough fuel and our importers can

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Speaker 2: get quantities that New Zealand needs, and.

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Speaker 1: By the time you get to the worst case scenario

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Speaker 1: yesterday from Treasury lasting all year, which of course it isn't.

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Speaker 1: You're into guesswork territory anyway, aren't you.

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Speaker 2: Look it is all forecasters are essentially making assumptions about

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Speaker 2: the future and then plotting in numbers. Treasury had given

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Speaker 2: me a range of scenarios and the best case scenario

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Speaker 2: in which we didn't have this conflict occurring. They were

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Speaker 2: forecasting growth at a very healthy level of three percent

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Speaker 2: for the year. Yet they've then done a range of

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Speaker 2: numbers to say, well, if the conflict lasts a small while,

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Speaker 2: a medium while, a long while, how much of an

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Speaker 2: impact could that have? But they'd be the first to

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Speaker 2: acknowledge these forecast are guessing games at the moment for everyone,

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Speaker 2: including everyone in the world who are trying to foresee.

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Speaker 1: These we play less guessing games and just get on

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Speaker 1: with life for goodness sake.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, look that the government's getting on with life.

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Speaker 2: But we also have to be proactive. We have to

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Speaker 2: plan for what could be around the corner, so that

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Speaker 2: if bad things happen, we're ready.

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Speaker 1: And when you're sitting around a table with a bunch

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Speaker 1: of journalist, one goes, you know, have you got any

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Speaker 1: tips for saving petrol, and you go, well, don't put

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Speaker 1: your foot on the accelerator as much and don't put

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Speaker 1: stuff in the boot, and Labor picks it up and

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Speaker 1: runs a social media campaign. This is where we end up,

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Speaker 1: isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, it's very frustrating. The first thing I said

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Speaker 2: was New Zealand is a sensible They don't need me

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Speaker 2: giving lectures on how to reduce their fuel use. They

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Speaker 2: actually know these things already and I'm very reluctant to

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Speaker 2: take that lecturer and chief roll up. But of course

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Speaker 2: Labor then clipped it because I said something about people

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Speaker 2: already know you don't put your stuff on the boosh

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Speaker 2: or don't drive a fast So they just took that

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Speaker 2: this and pretended I was out there giving a lesson

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Speaker 2: to the world. I mean, come on, of course, that's

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Speaker 2: not what I'm going to do.

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Speaker 1: No exactly. Are you worried? Though? Japan says they're not

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Speaker 1: really interested in helping with the straight up from this.

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Speaker 1: Germany says it's not our war that vibe that has

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Speaker 1: been sent to Trump. Does that potentially bother you?

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Speaker 2: Well, look, we do want to see the straight up

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Speaker 2: homos reopened, and it will be up to all countries

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Speaker 2: to decide weather and what role they play in it.

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Speaker 2: For New Zealand's part, we haven't been asked to participate

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Speaker 2: in any particular efforts in the Strait, but we're conscious

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Speaker 2: that countries will be assessing their own positions, taking a

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Speaker 2: range of actions, looking at alternative roots for oil and goods,

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Speaker 2: and I'm sure there'll be much to play out on

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Speaker 2: this in the days ahead.

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Speaker 1: Are you worried there's an increasing amount of pressure and

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Speaker 1: action globally for relief at the petrol pump. Star has

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Speaker 1: announced heating oil relief in Britain over night, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: This builds ahead of steam and you're going to have

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Speaker 1: to be forced into acting in some way, shape or

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Speaker 1: form well.

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Speaker 2: Of course, in the Yukain Europe's case, their particular issue

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Speaker 2: is that the energy and electricity prices are very much

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Speaker 2: more affected by events in the Middle East than ours

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Speaker 2: at because they're largely hydro and renewable, so they're in

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Speaker 2: a slightly different situation. But look, we do expect that worldwide,

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Speaker 2: as that price that the pump goes up sharply, it

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Speaker 2: is going to have an impact on consumer and countries

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Speaker 2: will respond in different ways. For our part, the advice

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Speaker 2: has been don't just steal a blanket universal take off

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Speaker 2: the petrol tax. In some ways, that would send the

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Speaker 2: wrong signal. And instead, if you are getting to a

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Speaker 2: point where there is acute pressure on some households, particularly

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Speaker 2: those flower income, you would be better to consider very targeted,

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Speaker 2: timely in temporary support.

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Speaker 1: Thailand has ordered civil servants to take the stairs instead

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Speaker 1: of elevators. Is it time the New Zealand government issued

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Speaker 1: orders for us to take the stairs and wear short

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Speaker 1: sleeve shirts.

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Speaker 2: No, he won't see us showing orders like that. Look,

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Speaker 2: the National Fuel Plan, which we've published a couple of

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Speaker 2: years ago, does say in some circumstances you could have

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Speaker 2: government agencies running an information campaigning to give people more

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Speaker 2: information about their choices for reducing their own fuel consumption.

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Speaker 2: But we're not there yet. And as I say, look,

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Speaker 2: I'm very reluctant to take the lecturer and chief role,

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Speaker 2: and I think people could well workout for themselves that,

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Speaker 2: you know, catching a bus might be cheaper than going

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Speaker 2: in the car sometimes depending on where you live and

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Speaker 2: depending on where the a bus is available. They don't

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Speaker 2: need me telling them how to live their own lives,

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Speaker 2: what choices makes for their particular family, their particular circumstances,

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Speaker 2: their particular obligation.

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Speaker 1: Quite right, Nicola Willis the Finance Minister. For more from

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