1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: Hilda. 2 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:17,799 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Crime is 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 2: one of the key issues the coalition government was voted 5 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 2: in on and it's easy to see why. The latest 6 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 2: data shows overall crime is sitting steady, but despite barely 7 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 2: moving figures, people are feeling more unsafe. The government wants 8 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: to tackle crime and create fewer victims of violent offenses, 9 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 2: but with law and order their key focus for the 10 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 2: coming months, are they focusing on the right crimes to 11 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 2: run us through the numbers and the policies. Today on 12 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: the Front Page were joined by senior political journalist Derek Cheng. 13 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 2: Crime in this country, Derek, people are sick of it. 14 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 2: Aligne Prime Minister loves to shout from the rooftops, but 15 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 2: people are actually sick of crime, aren't they. 16 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 3: Well, it depends what you look at. So you know, 17 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 3: there are lots of different measures for crime. There's no 18 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 3: definitive crime data. And when you're looking at different crime 19 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 3: data sources, the best thing is to look at the 20 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 3: trends over time. So you know, the latest crime and 21 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 3: Victim Survey for example, it includes unreported crime. You know 22 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 3: a lot of crime is not reported, roughly three quarters 23 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 3: of it, so it's considered one of the better crime statistics. 24 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 3: And if you look at that survey, crime has been 25 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 3: relatively steady since twenty eighteen, which was the first year 26 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 3: of the survey, So about seventy percent of us say 27 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 3: that we live crime free lives. But a different measure 28 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 3: there on feeling unsafe. There's been a big increase in 29 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 3: those of us who feel unsafe. That's gone from nine 30 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 3: to fifteen percent over the last six years, with the 31 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 3: biggest jump occurring between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three. 32 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 3: And it's also for victims and non victims, So there's 33 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 3: a little weird thing going on there. But it's not 34 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 3: uncommon for feelings of safety to not necessarily reflect the 35 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 3: amount of crime that's going on, and there's lots of 36 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 3: factors that are potentially at play there. So the proportion 37 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 3: of Asian New Zealanders, for example, feeling unsafe doubled from 38 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 3: eleven to twenty two percent over that time, and the 39 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 3: surveys suggested that racism during COVID might have contributed to that. 40 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 3: What does that mean for the government. While the steady 41 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 3: rate of crime doesn't really fit with Luxin's narrative that 42 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 3: crime is out of control. He much rather prefers to 43 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 3: cherry pickers crime data to suit his message, and that, 44 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,399 Speaker 3: to be fair, is not uncommon for politicians. And those 45 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 3: results also don't really sit with Luxen's lines about keewis 46 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 3: don't feel safe in that homes. He's right that there's 47 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 3: been an increase in feelings of not being safe, but 48 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 3: I don't think anyone would take fifteen percent and just 49 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:58,799 Speaker 3: broadly say walky, we don't feel in their homes. 50 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 2: It's interesting data, hey, when it comes out and those 51 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 2: victim surveys, because you're right, when you look at it 52 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 2: on the outset, you can't really see any obvious trends. 53 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 2: But if you choose to zoom in on specifics, as in, 54 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 2: you know, a youth crime, for instance, over this period 55 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 2: these ages, you can if you zoom in and pinpoint 56 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 2: some statistics, you can say that during this specific time 57 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 2: youth crime got more serious. But like you say, if 58 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 2: you zoom out, then it's a completely different picture. 59 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 3: Well, I think that people's experience of crime is often 60 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 3: a different picture entirely because if you are a victim 61 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 3: of crime and that will affect you and then your 62 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 3: household and you're you know, your wider circle. So you know, 63 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 3: you're right that youth crime has been ticking up in 64 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 3: recent years, and that's particularly prevalent in things like robberies 65 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 3: and burglaries and theft, and you know that is in 66 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 3: the statistics as well. But you know, even if overall 67 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 3: crime is quite steady, how people experiencing it and how 68 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 3: that goes through the grapevine the society is very different. So, 69 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 3: like I said before, it is not that uncommon for 70 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 3: people to feel less safe, even if the crime data 71 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 3: doesn't really show that we are actually less safe. 72 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: Look, we're seeing a lot in the media and coming 73 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 1: up from police about, you know, a recent incidence of 74 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 1: sort of increasingly younger people doing increasingly severe offending. The 75 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: stats over the. 76 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 2: Last few years actually show overall that youth crime offending 77 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,479 Speaker 2: numbers are decreasing, but what we're seeing. 78 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 3: Is sort of worse offending. 79 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 2: What challenge does it create for the government when people 80 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 2: are more afraid of crime than actually experiencing it. 81 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 3: Well, I think you know, a lot of politics, as 82 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 3: retail politics, you have to respond to what the perceptions are. 83 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 3: So you know, it suits. The Prime Minister Christopher Luxelm 84 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 3: to say that crime is out of control and that 85 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 3: people don't feel safe in their homes because that resonates 86 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 3: with people, and then he can come in and say, well, 87 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 3: this is our law and order agender, and we know 88 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 3: these things are popular. So when we say we're going 89 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 3: to crack down on gangs, yes, gang membership has gone up, 90 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 3: largely because of the five oh one departies from Australia, 91 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 3: so we're going to do something about that. Youth crime 92 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 3: is up, so you know, we've got our boot camps, 93 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 3: We've campaigned on them. Doesn't matter what the evidence says. 94 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 3: In particular, because we see a problem, we all know 95 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 3: there's a problem when we're going to do something about it. 96 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 3: Three strikes, longer sentences, these are all things that resonate 97 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 3: with the public. So it's a common political strategy to 98 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 3: respond to the perceptions of what's going on out there, 99 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 3: and this government's no different. Really. 100 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 2: You've also seen another survey recently that details the types 101 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 2: of crimes that people experience. Perhaps unsurprisingly, vehicle thefts and 102 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 2: burglaries topped the charts. 103 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 3: Hey, yeah, this is the episode survey and it was 104 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 3: a global survey. They also talked to like a thousand 105 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 3: New Zealanders and in New Zealand anyway, they didn't do 106 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:07,599 Speaker 3: it for New Zealand last year, so you can't only 107 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 3: compare years. But it has a unique question where you know, 108 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,840 Speaker 3: have you seen or heard this particular thing in your 109 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 3: neighborhood in the past twelve months. So vehicle theft, that 110 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 3: particular crime has doubled according to the Crime and Victim Survey, 111 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 3: so this also kind of aligned with that, saying that 112 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 3: it was very visible. Three and five people have witnessed 113 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 3: the vehicle theft fifty seven percent, burglars fifty six percent vandalism. Interestingly, 114 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 3: forty four percent said they had seen or heard a 115 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 3: gang in their neighborhood. But again we can't compare that 116 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 3: with previous years because there's no data on the previous years, 117 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 3: so we don't know if that's going up or down. 118 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 2: Prime Minister chrispher Luxon previously said that he wants to 119 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 2: see twenty thousand fewer victims of violent crimes such as assault, 120 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 2: robbery and sexual assault. How has the government responded to 121 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 2: these surveys. 122 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 3: Well, this is quite interesting because assault, sexual assault, robbery 123 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 3: they make up in the New Zealand crime and victims 124 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 3: of violent offenses. But this is not the measure he 125 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 3: likes to talk about every time he hears the words 126 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 3: law and order. You know, I tried to ask him 127 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 3: about this and the survey in particular recently, and you know, 128 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 3: he doesn't really talk with you when you ask about 129 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 3: law and order. He just talks at you. So his 130 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 3: response every time is just ad nauseam. Violent crime is 131 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 3: up thirty three percent. 132 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 4: Crime has escalated in New Zealand over the last six years, 133 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 4: and under a labor government that frankly has been very 134 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 4: soft on crime. Since twenty seventeen, violent crime is up 135 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,679 Speaker 4: over thirty three percent. Serious assaults have more than doubled. 136 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 4: Retail crime is up over one hundred percent. New Zealanders 137 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 4: are not feeling safe from their own homes and their 138 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 4: own businesses or their communities. 139 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 3: But his measure here is victimizations police victimizations for specific 140 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 3: offense acts intended to cause injury. And he's right, he's 141 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 3: comparing the number in the year twenty seventeen with twenty 142 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 3: twenty three and that's gone up thirty three percent. But 143 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 3: you know this suits his message that things got so 144 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 3: much worse under Labor. But if he chose, for example, 145 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 3: the number of people charged or convicted for that particular offense, 146 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 3: then the trend under Labor is steady or even decreasing. 147 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 3: So let's say that he wanted to use violent offenses 148 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 3: in the Crime and Victim Survey as his measure for 149 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 3: the trend in crime under Labor. But under that survey, 150 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 3: there's no significant difference in the proportion of kiwis experiencing 151 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 3: those offenses when Labor was in office, so it doesn't 152 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 3: suit his message. Having said that, there's been quite an 153 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 3: increase in that specific measure violent defenses. There were twenty 154 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 3: three thousand more victims in twenty twenty three compared to 155 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, So his public service goal for twenty 156 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,959 Speaker 3: thirty is to reduce the number of victims by twenty thousand, 157 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 3: But that actually isn't very ambitious because he just wants 158 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 3: to dial it back to twenty twenty two levels. As 159 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 3: for the government response to the survey, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith, 160 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 3: he predictably said, well, that's why we need to get 161 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 3: tough on crime, that's why we need longer sentences, that's 162 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 3: why we need to smash the gangs, etc. You know, 163 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 3: even though there are still questions about whether any of 164 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 3: that policy agenda will make a difference. 165 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 2: Three of their key law and order policies are around 166 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 2: reintroducing the three strikes and boot camps for young offenders 167 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:24,319 Speaker 2: and making life more difficult for gangs. Now, is there 168 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 2: any evidence that those policies will actually work well? 169 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 3: Ministry of Justice officials put the proposed laws through the 170 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 3: ringer and they've give an assessment of these things. When 171 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 3: it comes to the anti gang stuff, the officials were 172 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 3: pretty much a scathing as it gets. You know, there's 173 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 3: no evidence they'll work. They might make things worse by 174 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 3: creating more friction between gangs and the states, and it 175 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 3: might end up in court, you know, if they challenge 176 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 3: for breaching the Bill of Rights acts as far as 177 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,679 Speaker 3: three strikes go. They said that there was no significant 178 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 3: quantifiable benefit for a policy that's going to cost millions 179 00:09:57,880 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 3: of dollars. You know, this is exactly the thing that 180 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 3: Luxen moraled against with labor, where they throw money at 181 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 3: something even though it doesn't work. And those officials also 182 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 3: challenged the government on a number of their favorite law 183 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 3: and order slogans that longer sentences make people safer that 184 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 3: the law is good for Maori because there will be 185 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 3: few Maori victims, that it will deter crimes from happening, 186 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 3: none of which has any evidential basis. Boot camps we've 187 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 3: talked about a lot. You know, there's a bunch of 188 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 3: academic research saying that they're the least effective tool when 189 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 3: it comes to youth offending. They failed in the past 190 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 3: under the last National government under John Key, where the 191 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,679 Speaker 3: reoffending rates were north of eighty percent, and where they 192 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 3: have been good it tends to be because of the 193 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 3: support that goes with the programs, nothing to do with 194 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 3: the boot camp model itself, and we've also recently had 195 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 3: all the inconsistency around whether the Defense Force will be involved. 196 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 3: But having said that, you know, none of that means 197 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 3: that the policy of the programs won't work. To say 198 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,439 Speaker 3: this that there's no evidence that they worked before doesn't 199 00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 3: necessarily mean that they didn't work. You know, three strikes 200 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 3: version one might have stopped one gruesome crime from happening 201 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 3: because someone was in prison for longer, and if that 202 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,079 Speaker 3: has happened, then Luxelon would probably say it was worth it. 203 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 3: The problem there is that the crime might have just 204 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 3: been delayed or redirected inside of prison, and that the 205 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 3: harm over that criminal's lifetime hasn't diminished in any way. 206 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 3: I think more generally, there are so many aspects that 207 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 3: make up the crime equation, so it's impossible to say 208 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 3: whether any one policy definitively did this thing to crime levels. 209 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 3: There's also like a bunch of other things happening, like 210 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 3: more visible police on the beat, the Social Investment Program, 211 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 3: for example, a plan to tackle truancy. So you know, 212 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 3: if there was less poverty, less truancy, less homelessness, crime 213 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 3: would almost certainly go down, regardless of whatever policies that 214 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 3: have no evidence behind them are enacted, or even in 215 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:56,079 Speaker 3: spite of them. It's not about gang pictures. 216 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 2: Let's look at the ultimate course and the greatest violence 217 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:00,679 Speaker 2: you can inflict anybody. 218 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 3: It's poverty. That's the ultimate pause. 219 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 2: Clearly, people having their cars stolen and their homes broken 220 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 2: into as a top concern for New Zealander's huge interest 221 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 2: in The Herald's most Burgled street story the other day. 222 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 2: Can those all be blamed on young offenders and gangs? 223 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 3: I suppose, Well, that's quite hard to say, because police 224 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 3: do gather data on crimes committed by people on the 225 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 3: National Gangs List, but it's not publicly available, so it's 226 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 3: not like you control through that data yourself. They released 227 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 3: some stats recently. Gang members make up less than a 228 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 3: quarter of a percent of the whole population, but they 229 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 3: are responsible for sixteen percent of a robberies, eighteen percent 230 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 3: of all serious violent crime, twenty five percent of all kidnapping. 231 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 3: The biggest increases in the last decade were with assaults, 232 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,679 Speaker 3: but we know that gang membership has been on the rise, 233 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 3: of some ten thousand gang members at the moment. Youth 234 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 3: crime also has been rising globally following the increase of 235 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 3: social isolation from the pandemic, and looking at youth offenses, 236 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 3: there has been a big jump in theft in burglaries 237 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 3: and robberies, So there's at least some correlation there between 238 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 3: rising youth crime, more gang members and those types of offenses. 239 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 3: You know, we've talked earlier about vehicle thefts being on 240 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 3: the app and home burglaries there, so there's likely a 241 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 3: correlation there. But when you're trying to look at blaming, 242 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 3: you probably need to look at overall what the drivers 243 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 3: of crime are, and that's a very complex intersection of 244 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 3: lots of different things, poverty, housing, health, intergenerational trauma, educational opportunities, 245 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 3: things like that. You know, there's a reason that politicians 246 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 3: keep their slogans simple and snappy, that things are almost 247 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 3: always much more complex than that. 248 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 2: Can we legislate our way out of people getting their 249 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 2: cars stolen or at least maybe put some more money 250 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 2: towards free anti theft devices for car owners or something 251 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 2: to make people safer. Would that be a better use 252 00:13:57,880 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 2: of the government's money, do you think? 253 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 3: You know, that's quite hard to say as well, because 254 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 3: a lot of that type of policy is really kind 255 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 3: of crystal ball gazing. One thing that the government is 256 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 3: doing or wanting to do, is to put way more 257 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,839 Speaker 3: police on the beat. And we know that police visibility. 258 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 3: I mean, if you're going to go and steal a 259 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 3: car and you see a cop down the road, then 260 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 3: you're probably going to think twice, right, So that's one 261 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 3: way to boost the crime prevention tools. There's also obviously 262 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 3: challenges around that because a bunch of our police are 263 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 3: heading over to Australia and the government wants five hundred 264 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 3: additional police officers by the end of next year. Whether 265 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 3: they get to do that remains to be seen. And 266 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 3: you know, police is also one of those departments that 267 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 3: have had to penny pinch like all the other ones 268 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 3: as well, So you know anti theft devices. I'm not sure. 269 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 3: I haven't really seen any data on how effective those are. 270 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 3: But I mean, if you're going to steal something and 271 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 3: there's a lock across the steering wheel or something, then 272 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 3: and the next car doesn't have one, then you're probably 273 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 3: likely to skip that one and go on to the 274 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 3: next one one. 275 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 2: In ten Kiwei's experience fraud according to the crime and 276 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 2: Victim surveys. 277 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 3: Look is this really for real? 278 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 1: And they said absolutely, there's no question in your our 279 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: minds that you have been scammed. 280 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 3: And then they say them, we can't recover it. Asb 281 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 3: told Tim, his money was gone too. How much money 282 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 3: had you invested? 283 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 2: I invested four hundred thousand dollars. 284 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 4: It's a feeling of complete and utter loss, devastation, worse 285 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 4: day of my life. 286 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 2: Why aren't we hearing more from the government about tackling 287 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:33,359 Speaker 2: this issue when it's one of the most dominant unreported crimes. 288 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 3: Well, if I'm being cynical, in short, I would just 289 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 3: say that there aren't really many votes there. Fraud is 290 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 3: the most common crime in New Zealand now it has 291 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 3: doubled the proportion of Kiwi's experience for it has doubled 292 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 3: in the last six years. But it's not something that 293 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 3: really makes a lot of headlines. It doesn't make people's 294 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 3: skin crawl. I guess when they're sitting at home watching TV, 295 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 3: safe in their homes after work. You know, it doesn't 296 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 3: stir up the kind of fear that makes people go 297 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 3: to the ballot box and vote. 298 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 2: What about family and domestic harm? This is a persistent 299 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 2: issue in this country and it doesn't appear to be 300 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 2: on top of any priority list, does it. 301 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 3: No, that's right, and it's been a bit of an 302 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 3: issue this year because police have said that they're stepping 303 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 3: back from low level family violence callouts because they aren't 304 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 3: and shouldn't be the state's tool for non crime social problems. 305 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 3: But if nothing steps in there to fill that void, 306 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 3: you know, those situations can easily escalate into more problematic 307 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 3: ones and family violence. You know, it's a plague in 308 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 3: New Zealand. But again being cynical here, those populations aren't 309 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 3: really ones that vote very much, so it's not going 310 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 3: to be as naturally on politicians, radar as other things 311 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 3: that grab headlines and make people go to the ballot box. 312 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 2: And given the rates of crime have barely changed in 313 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 2: recent years, is the government fighting a losing battle to 314 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 2: try and make us safer when it seems people's feelings 315 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 2: don't really reflect reality anyway? 316 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 3: I think you know, the government will see it self 317 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 3: is winning if what they're doing resonates with the public. 318 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 3: Right So if they're seem to be doing something, you know, 319 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 3: the stuff that people are rightly or wrongly worried about, 320 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 3: and that's youth crime. So they've got their boot camps, 321 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 3: it's gangs, so they have their anti gang legislation. People 322 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 3: think that sentences are two light. Surveys have shown that 323 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 3: multiple times, so they're going to lengthen sentences. So whether 324 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 3: they work or not is almost secondary. I mean, look 325 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 3: at making it an aggravating factor. If you hit the cornerdiry, 326 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 3: how many robbers are going to go into the corner 327 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 3: diiry and look to see if there's more than one 328 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 3: worker in there or if there's a home attached to it. 329 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 3: Which are the factors that would make it an aggravating 330 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 3: factor of sentencing. You know, no one's probably going to 331 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 3: look at those things. That doesn't mean it doesn't look 332 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 3: like the government isn't doing something to protect a sector 333 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 3: of society who's rightly been set up with the RAM 334 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 3: rays and the use attacks and the robberies. So a 335 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 3: government can point to all the things that they're doing 336 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 3: and they can give themselves a big tick as long 337 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 3: as it resonates with the public. Of course, if crime 338 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 3: then drops and people feel safe, that's obviously great, But 339 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,719 Speaker 3: there's so many things that go into that crime equation, 340 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 3: and so it's impossible to say whether any policy is 341 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 3: responsible for that. Of course, things could also get a 342 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 3: lot worse, and they haven't over the last six years 343 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 3: according to that crime and Victim survey. But if they 344 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 3: do get a lot worse, then people will ultimately get disillusioned, 345 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 3: feel less and less safe. But for the moment, that 346 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 3: is a hypothetical problem for a second term. 347 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Derek. That's it for this episode 348 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 2: of the Front Page. You can read more about today's 349 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 2: stories and extensive news coverage at enzet Herald dot co 350 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 2: dot z. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Seals 351 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 2: with sound engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to 352 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,880 Speaker 2: the front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, 353 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 2: and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.