1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,880 Speaker 1: Well, it is the Middle East, after all, the maybe 2 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:04,520 Speaker 1: Trump and his voluminous claims yesterday about peace and cease 3 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: fires was always a little bit optimistic, multiple claims of 4 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:09,639 Speaker 1: breaches already, but there was a fragile hole that seems 5 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: as we speak at the moment. Dr Max Schmidt is 6 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: the Associate Professor of National Security at the University of 7 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: New Haven and as with us, Matthew, morning to you. 8 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 2: Good morning. 9 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 1: So we're seeing a little bit of tip for tap. 10 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: Will it settle? Do you think? Or was yesterday a 11 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: bit of a false dawn? 12 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 2: Now? I think it will settle. I think it's best 13 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: to understand Israel's strike on that radar system is a 14 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 2: sort of a oh woa, we forgot this one, or 15 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: they're spinning up the radar and we can see it now, 16 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 2: and it's important for us tactically to take it out 17 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 2: just in case. 18 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 1: Where do you reckon Iran is at? Is this a 19 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: cease fire or is this Look we've been bombed badly. 20 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 1: We're out of mo for now. We need to do something, 21 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: So give us a couple of days. 22 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 2: Brown's in an interesting position. They have very little to 23 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: retaliate with unclear exactly how many ballistic missiles, for instance, 24 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,839 Speaker 2: that remain in their inventory, probably very few, well fewer 25 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 2: than one thousand. At this point. They can't fire everything 26 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 2: because then they have no deterrence. So it's in their 27 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: incentive to keep everybody guessing, although I'm pretty sure that 28 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 2: Israel doesn't need to guess that much. So they need 29 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 2: to bring this down for their own sake. And the 30 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 2: regime is sitting here looking at the coming days and 31 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 2: weeks as a question of its own survival. 32 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: I'm watching no shortage of people telling me regime change 33 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: is a real possibility, has been for some time. This 34 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 1: could be the tipping point. What's your view. 35 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 2: I think that we are at a point where it's 36 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 2: more likely than it has been since nineteen seventy nine. 37 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: I think the default position is still that regime change 38 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: is difficult. There are a lot of reasons why the 39 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 2: regime may collapse, but there are not a lot of 40 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 2: people who can stand in place and take over LEADLeadership. 41 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 2: The opposition in Iran is fractured, there isn't a clear leader. 42 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 2: Someone could still emerge, but there's a lot of risks 43 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 2: to doing that, and the regime hasn't lost its capacity 44 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 2: to repress citizens. So you know, as long as those 45 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 2: factors are still in play, I think the expectation is 46 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: that the regime survives in one form or another. 47 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: From the American point of view, how critical is the 48 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: knowledge of the damage they did with the B two's 49 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 1: or are they Is it one and done and they're out? 50 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 2: No matter what, I think the knowledge is important. I 51 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 2: think there's more out there than we know in the public, 52 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 2: probably from the Israelis. So you know. The other situation 53 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 2: here is the capability exists, and the president's been set 54 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 2: to go in and bomb, so there's no hard reason 55 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 2: to go back and do this today or tomorrow or 56 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 2: even this year. It definitely has set back the program, 57 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 2: you know, several years, and so you can sit back 58 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 2: and wait and you can always take an another shot later. 59 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,119 Speaker 2: I don't see the US coming in anytime soon. 60 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: Appreciate your expertise very much, Doctor Matchmiad, Associate Professor of 61 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,640 Speaker 1: National Security at the University of New Haven. The markets 62 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: are up and oil is down. For more from the 63 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news Talks at b 64 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.