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Speaker 1: Kilda. I'm Georgina Campbell in for Chalsea Daniels and this

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Speaker 1: is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by The

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Speaker 1: New Zealand Herald. After fifteen months and the deaths of

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Speaker 1: around forty seven thousand Palestinians, the war between Israel and

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Speaker 1: Timas has ended for now. A six week ceasefire has

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Speaker 1: begun in Gaza after agreements were reached for the release

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Speaker 1: of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners and aid.

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Speaker 1: The start of the agreement coincides with Donald Trump returning

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Speaker 1: to the White House, with the US President taking credit

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Speaker 1: for the deal, though so did his predecessor Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: So what will happen next in Gaza and what does

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Speaker 1: Trump's come back mean for other world issues? Today on

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Speaker 1: the Front Page, University of waikutl Professor of Law Alexander

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Speaker 1: Gillespie joins us to discuss the long awaited ceasefire and

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Speaker 1: what's next in world politics.

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Speaker 2: Ol.

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Speaker 1: The ceasefire in Gaza has been a long time coming.

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Speaker 1: What exactly does the deal entail?

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Speaker 3: It's a deal which has a sequence of steps and

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Speaker 3: each step will take good faith, so before you move

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Speaker 3: to the next one. But in principle. It's about the

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Speaker 3: release of the hostages in a phased way and an

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Speaker 3: exchange of Palestinian prisoners and a withdrawal of Israeli troops

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Speaker 3: from some of the territory.

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Speaker 1: And it's only for six weeks currently. Do you think

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Speaker 1: it will continue after that point?

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Speaker 3: Both scients need to show good faith and that will

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Speaker 3: make so that there's no trickery involved and that they

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Speaker 3: can build some trust and ability to rely on the

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Speaker 3: word of each other, and that the deal progresses as planned.

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Speaker 3: If there's a breach of good faith, then the whole

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Speaker 3: thing could fall over quite quickly.

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Speaker 1: How difficult is that for them to be able to,

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Speaker 1: you know, have faith in each other's word given the

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Speaker 1: history here.

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Speaker 3: The history is difficult because until recently it's been a

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Speaker 3: very difficult conflict, and there's been what I would consider

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Speaker 3: to be crimes committed or potential crimes and practices which

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Speaker 3: are at times not good, and they have undermined the relationship.

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Speaker 3: And you need to have a relationship with your opposition

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Speaker 3: even in times of conflict, so that you can start

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Speaker 3: to move forward and build peace. But right through to

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Speaker 3: the use of targeted killing or assassinations of leaders of

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Speaker 3: the various groups. Even though that may or may not

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Speaker 3: have been justified. It undermines the ability of science to

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Speaker 3: talk to each other. But they are now at a

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Speaker 3: point where there's so much pressure to make a deal

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Speaker 3: that they've both advanced at the right time, and thankfully

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Speaker 3: we've got to a point where the killing will at

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Speaker 3: least stop and hopefully we can get some of these

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Speaker 3: hostages bank and start to move forward.

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Speaker 2: Israel has freed ninety Palestinian prisoners as part of its

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Speaker 2: ceasefire deal with Hamas. Early on Monday morning, several buses

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Speaker 2: carrying the detainees left the gates of Israel's a Fair

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Speaker 2: prison just outside the West Bank city of Ramala. Hundreds

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Speaker 2: of people gathered to celebrate the release, with several climbing

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Speaker 2: on the top of one of the buses. The freed

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Speaker 2: prisoners are said to be women and teenage boys from

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Speaker 2: the West Bank and Jerusalem. They're the first of nineteen

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Speaker 2: hundred Palestinians Israel is set to release in exchange for

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Speaker 2: thirty three Israeli hostages in phase one of the deal.

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Speaker 1: I have other countries been keeping an eye on the steal,

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Speaker 1: helping this deal come to fruition and also making sure

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Speaker 1: that it is seen through.

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Speaker 3: These a large number of countries that are involved in it,

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Speaker 3: and even countries where it hasn't always been people involved

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Speaker 3: in power, like with the United States. The fingerprints of

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Speaker 3: the now the new president, mister Trump, are already on

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Speaker 3: this process. Qatar has been the major intermediary, but other

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Speaker 3: countries in the region are also involved. One of the

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Speaker 3: key things to look for is whether you can have

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Speaker 3: a neutral group like the Red Cross involved in the exchanges,

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Speaker 3: because sometimes if you've got a neutral group like the

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Speaker 3: Red Cross or the Red Crescent, it takes some of

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Speaker 3: the heat out of the negotiations and the handing over

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Speaker 3: of the people.

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Speaker 1: And there have been other tensions in the Middle East

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Speaker 1: over the last year and a half, noticeably between Israel

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Speaker 1: and Hezbulla and the Hirsty rebels. Do you think that

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Speaker 1: this ceasefire will bring some peace back to the region.

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Speaker 3: I think there's a very large difference between the words

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Speaker 3: ceasefire and peace because we're not at the point of

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Speaker 3: peace agreements, which is what we should be aiming for.

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Speaker 3: But if you actually look at the conflict and around

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Speaker 3: Israel and in the occupied territories, that these go back

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Speaker 3: to the late nineteen forties, and it's possible to see

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Speaker 3: this is just the latest in a long sequence of

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Speaker 3: terrible conflicts. To actually get to peace would require considerations

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Speaker 3: about the formation of a Palestinian state and security guarantees

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Speaker 3: for Israel so it could feel that its own people

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Speaker 3: were safe from external threats. Those kind of peace agreements

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Speaker 3: that you would need to have with the Palestinians. You

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Speaker 3: would also need to reboot for the region so that

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Speaker 3: you could include it with Yemen, you could include it

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Speaker 3: with Syria, and in an ideal world, well, it's a

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Speaker 3: very long way away, you could include it with Iran.

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Speaker 3: But right now we're only at the first step of

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Speaker 3: a very long process where we've stopped the immediate, inhumane

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Speaker 3: and wrongful situations of the conflict. This is only the

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Speaker 3: first stage of the ceasefire, and the harder part is

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Speaker 3: when you go to the rebuilding of Gaza and whether

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Speaker 3: you go to questions of autonomy that autonomy looks like,

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Speaker 3: and this involves questions of whether Hamas remains in power,

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Speaker 3: whether you have peacekeepers of foreign nations in the region,

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Speaker 3: or whether you actually move towards sovereignty of the Palestinian

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Speaker 3: people and the sovereignty question is the big one because

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Speaker 3: it's not just the West Bank, it's also Gaza, and

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Speaker 3: so there's difficult negotiation ahead. But the other thing you

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Speaker 3: need to keep in consideration is whether there will be

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Speaker 3: accountability for the alleged war crimes committed by all science

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Speaker 3: in this conflict. And the risk is that sometimes people

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Speaker 3: are so keen to get an end to the killing

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Speaker 3: that they allow impunity to prevail because they don't want

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Speaker 3: to hold these people to account, because if you hold

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Speaker 3: them to account, it means that you can't stop the

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Speaker 3: shooting on the ground in the immediate future.

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Speaker 4: Now, after so much pain, destruction, loss of life, today

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Speaker 4: the guns in Gaza have gone silent. This was the

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Speaker 4: deal that I outlined for the world back in May

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Speaker 4: thirty first, many of who covered it at the time.

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Speaker 4: I was endorsed overwhelmingly by folks around the world, including

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Speaker 4: the UN Security councilor and nanimously endorsed the deal and

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Speaker 4: developed a coordination with I developed in coordination with Egypt,

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Speaker 4: CODA and Israel. I've worked in foreign policy for decades.

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Speaker 4: This is one of the toughest negotiations I've been part of,

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Speaker 4: and the.

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Speaker 1: Deal was made while the Biden administration was still in office,

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Speaker 1: but I've seen that Donald Trump sent an advisor to

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Speaker 1: Israel as well to make it clear to Benjamin Netanya,

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Speaker 1: who that the incoming president wanted a deal reached. Why

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Speaker 1: do you think Trump was so keen on getting a

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Speaker 1: ceasefire and will he be taking credit for this going

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Speaker 1: into office.

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Speaker 3: I think everyone wants to cease fire, and it just

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Speaker 3: depends upon what terms that you get that cease fire.

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Speaker 3: Mister Biden tried very hard to get it, but he

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Speaker 3: was also very strong in his support for Israel and

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Speaker 3: mister net in particular. I imagine that that support will be

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Speaker 3: deepened even further under mister Trump. It wasn't ever a

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Speaker 3: question of America not being behind Israel. It's a question

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Speaker 3: of how far they're behind Israel. And I think mister

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Speaker 3: Trump will accelerate that support. He's likely to be pushing

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Speaker 3: for a number of regional initiatives, like he started out

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Speaker 3: what was known as the Abraham Accords with his first presidency,

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Speaker 3: where he tried to normalize the relationships with a number

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Speaker 3: of Israel's neighbors. Best case scenario, you can now continue

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Speaker 3: that and start to move towards those peace agreements we

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Speaker 3: were talking about earlier, and so although it's possible to

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Speaker 3: be pessimistic, it's also possible to be optimistic and that

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Speaker 3: there is a chance now to really reset the agenda,

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Speaker 3: especially because, as you've mentioned, with the heathy and with

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Speaker 3: his BLA and with Iran, the Israeli military has clearly

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Speaker 3: got the upper hand, and so the opposition is much

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Speaker 3: more fragmented and defeated than it has been for quite

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Speaker 3: some time. Not completely defeated by any means, but there

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Speaker 3: is a chance for something new, and in the best

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Speaker 3: case scenario, mister Trump will help reach towards them.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk more about Trump, who has officially returned to office,

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Speaker 1: vowing to be a peacemaker and unifier on the world stage.

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Speaker 1: He has also made repeater claims about season control of Greenland,

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Speaker 1: the Panama Canal, and potentially even Canada. What do you

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Speaker 1: make of those claims that he's made.

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Speaker 3: Some very entertaining rhetoric. I don't think he's seriously intending

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Speaker 3: to acquire by force Greenland, Panama or Canada, but I

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Speaker 3: think it's the way of upping the antis to make

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Speaker 3: negotiations a little bit more pointed so that he can

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Speaker 3: renegotiate the deals that he wants. The broader issue you

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Speaker 3: have is that mister Trump is not so aligned to

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Speaker 3: an international rule based order as his predecessors, so he's

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Speaker 3: willing to make deals to get the goals that he wants.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes deals at other p may not have.

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Speaker 1: Made Argentina's Heavier Melee and Italy's Georgia Maloney were in

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Speaker 1: attendance that Trump's inauguration, both known for the far right views.

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Speaker 1: What does that say about the types of leaders Trump

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Speaker 1: is aligning himself with.

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Speaker 3: I think you can see the pendulum of politics within

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Speaker 3: democracies is swinging towards the right at the moment. I

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Speaker 3: think this pendulum will swing back in time, but right

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Speaker 3: now the momentum is clearly towards the right and in

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Speaker 3: places the far right, although I'd be carefully around that terminology.

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Speaker 3: And mister Trump has picked up on this and he

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Speaker 3: is just the most obvious manifestation of this change. But

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Speaker 3: it's one that will have a lot of implications in

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Speaker 3: international policy, because whether you're talking about trade or security

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Speaker 3: or even the environment, that the need for a roles

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Speaker 3: based order is critical, but some of these governments are

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Speaker 3: willing to step out of the norms that were built

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Speaker 3: up over the last few decades.

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Speaker 1: What's behind that swing to the right.

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Speaker 3: Well, first off, you have to respect it because these

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Speaker 3: people come up through democracies and they represent one political viewpoint,

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Speaker 3: and the main thing is that the democracy continues even

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Speaker 3: if you disagree with who's in charge. I think you've

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Speaker 3: got to look at each issue in turn, whether it's security,

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Speaker 3: or whether it's trade, or whether it's the environment. But

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Speaker 3: sometimes the difference between the far left and the far

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Speaker 3: right of international stage is not that great, and so

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Speaker 3: like if you look at the issue of security, people

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Speaker 3: on the far right and often on the left are

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Speaker 3: both saying you need to do more in terms of

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Speaker 3: the amount of money that you spend, the upgrades that

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Speaker 3: are required in the alliances that are necessary to protect

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Speaker 3: your country. Where you may find more pressure, like if

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Speaker 3: you run with that example with mister Trump as of

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Speaker 3: the instance, So countries need to spend more on their

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Speaker 3: military and if you're a member of NATO, the target

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Speaker 3: is two percent of your GDP. I think mister Biden

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Speaker 3: was willing to turn a blind eye to countries which

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Speaker 3: didn't make that target in the past, like Canada and

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Speaker 3: like New Zealand. I think in the future you will

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Speaker 3: find more pressure on countries like Canada, in like New Zealand,

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Speaker 3: even though we're not a member of NATO, to increase

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Speaker 3: our spend on security. He will expect other countries to

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Speaker 3: do more in terms of the heavy lifting that America

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Speaker 3: has previously done, and if you are a friend, you

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Speaker 3: will be required to meet certain baseline expectations.

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Speaker 5: I think what is interesting is that this year that's

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Speaker 5: just gone by, twenty twenty four was the year in

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Speaker 5: which more people voted than at any time ever in

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Speaker 5: human history, and one of the themes that was consistent

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Speaker 5: around the world was it was almost impossible for a

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Speaker 5: party to stay in power. It didn't matter whether you

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Speaker 5: were left or right. Voters felt that they're not being

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Speaker 5: well served by the people who they put into office.

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Speaker 5: So some of it, I think is about the bigger

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Speaker 5: picture about what's actually going on. Is it that people

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Speaker 5: don't like Trudeau? Is it that people don't like the

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Speaker 5: right the left? Is it populism? And I guess one

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Speaker 5: of the things that's really important is that we're living

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Speaker 5: in an age of revolutions.

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Speaker 1: Where does this leave more liberal governments? You know, like

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Speaker 1: we've already seen Canada's Justin Trudeau resign. What happens to

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Speaker 1: them in this context.

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Speaker 3: Well, again, it's reached democracy to decide what kind of

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Speaker 3: government that they want. But historically the pendulum goes one way,

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Speaker 3: then it goes the other way. But you are seeing

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Speaker 3: a dissatisfaction with a number of policies in a large

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Speaker 3: number of countries. And that's not just in America or

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Speaker 3: in parts of Europe. You can also see it in

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Speaker 3: our own country. And you have seen some radical politics

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Speaker 3: which previous generations had stayed away from, and so often

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Speaker 3: the consensus based approach of foreign policy, of domestic policy

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Speaker 3: on certain issues like indigenous frights, there was kind of

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Speaker 3: an agreed common path. But now a lot of those

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Speaker 3: debates are up for discussion.

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Speaker 1: And Donald Trump has been leveling all sorts of tariff threats.

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Speaker 1: Do you think we're going to see a bit of

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Speaker 1: a trade war emerge?

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Speaker 3: To me, the way I see mister Trump is manifest

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Speaker 3: uncertainty in the way that the international world will respond.

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Speaker 3: But I don't see mister Trump is working in a

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Speaker 3: bilateral way where it's going to be like New Zealand

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Speaker 3: has to be particularly concerned about the United states, although

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Speaker 3: we must be to me, it's going to be more

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Speaker 3: like a game of billions, whereby there's going to be

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Speaker 3: dozens of countries trying to scramble for position, trying to

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Speaker 3: work out their relationship with mister Trump, and we will

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Speaker 3: get caught up in those blood falls bouncing around the table,

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Speaker 3: and so it will become difficult. Like if you take

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Speaker 3: one issue like said the Ukraine, and mister Trump says,

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Speaker 3: when America decides We're no longer going to fund the

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Speaker 3: defense of the Ukraine, but the Europeans say, well, we

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Speaker 3: are going to continue to fund the defense of the Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Then for a country like New Zealand, we're going to

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Speaker 3: have to say, well, do we go with the Europeans

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Speaker 3: or do we go with mister Trump.

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Speaker 6: I returned to the presidentcy confidence and optimistic that we

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Speaker 6: are at the start of the a thrilling new era

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Speaker 6: of national success. A tide of change is sweeping the

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Speaker 6: country's sunlight is pouring over the entire world, and America

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Speaker 6: has the chance to seize this opportunity like never before.

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Speaker 6: But first we must be honest about the challenges we face.

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Speaker 6: While there are plentiful, they will be annihilated by this

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Speaker 6: great momentum that the world is now witnessing in the

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Speaker 6: United States of America.

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Speaker 1: And finally, as difficult as it can be to make

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Speaker 1: predictions with Trump, what do you think will happen in

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Speaker 1: terms of global politics over the next four years with

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Speaker 1: Trump at the helm in the US?

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Speaker 3: Well, with mister Trump, it's really what's the next four days,

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Speaker 3: because things move so quickly. He's promised that within twenty

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Speaker 3: four hours he would bring a peace to the Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: He's already got his fingerprints over the hostage deal. He's

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Speaker 3: gone to have to reevaluate the situation with China, and

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Speaker 3: that we'll involve Taiwan, and of course there's for larger

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Speaker 3: relationship with Russia. And so I will take the optimistic

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Speaker 3: view and that he is going to try to have

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Speaker 3: a presidency very similar to what Ronald Reagan had with

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Speaker 3: his second term, and he saw an opportunity to reach

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Speaker 3: for agreements which are on everyone's best interests, like arms

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Speaker 3: control and agreement around certain chor issues that cannot be

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Speaker 3: solved unilaterally. And he has an energy and hopefully that

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Speaker 3: can be used for good. The challenge we have is

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Speaker 3: when agreements are proposed and like it sounds great that

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Speaker 3: you will have peace in the Ukraine within twenty four hours,

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Speaker 3: But the challenge is what are the terms of that agreement?

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Speaker 3: And the risk is that the terms of that agreement

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Speaker 3: undermine the international rules based order. So you can get

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Speaker 3: short term agreements which look great, but the longer term

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Speaker 3: consequences can be damaging if not well managed.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, al, You're welcome. That's it for

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Speaker 1: this episode of the Front Page. You can read more

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Speaker 1: about today's stories and extensive news coverage at ziherld dot

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Speaker 1: co dot MZED. The Front Page is produced by Ethan

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Speaker 1: Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer.

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Speaker 1: I'm Georgena Campbell. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio

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Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow

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Speaker 1: for another look behind the headlines.