1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:01,720 Speaker 1: Now, look, while I was tramping all over the top 2 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: of the Commandual peninsula, we had some good and bad 3 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: news about our economy. GDP came out better than we expected, 4 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,120 Speaker 1: a rise of point seven percent in the fourth quarter, 5 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: which should signal the start of green shoots and recovery 6 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: and confidence. But at the same time, the consumer confidence 7 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,119 Speaker 1: figure came out and it was the worst we've seen 8 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: since the nineties. And then Paul Bloxham, the Australian economists 9 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: who invented the rock Star economy name, came out and said, 10 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: our recession has been the worst in the CECD So 11 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 1: what happened there and why aren't we confident? And why 12 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: was our recession so hard? And here is my take. 13 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank and the government need to start working together. 14 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 1: During the pandemic, the bank slashed the interest rates while 15 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: the government turbocharged spending, leading of course to what we 16 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: know the hangover that needed medicine. The previous government rightly 17 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 1: blamed for the mess it was responsible for. But we've 18 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: been double hit by the bank and the government. They 19 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: pulled all the leavers. So then the new government came 20 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: in to fix things, slash spending to reduce boring good 21 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: move and also reduce revenue through tax cuts. But the 22 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: Reserve Bank had already started attacking inflation a year beforehand 23 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: with interest rates, so once again we were doubly hit 24 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: and we got some tax cuts, which was that the 25 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: right thing to do at the right time. Fran O'Sullivan 26 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: six weeks ago described the tax cuts as badly timed. 27 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: It meant we weren't paying back debt. We're still struggling 28 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: just to pay the interests. So, as Paul Bloxham has 29 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: now described, we had an excessive pandemic reaction followed by 30 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: an excessive inflation reaction. Now, all the stuff that all 31 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: the parties did is technically correct in macroeconomics, and this 32 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: is easy to criticize the twenty twenty hindsight, but it 33 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: has been as though the left hand and the right 34 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: hand doesn't know what each other are doing, which means 35 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: it was tough, which means now our recovery will be slow. 36 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: All the parties claim they are the prude fiscal managers, 37 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: and all Reserve Bank governors claim the same, but if 38 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: you look back over the past five years, that's simply 39 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: not been true. They've been working against each other, and 40 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: we did it hard. And the reason I mentioned all 41 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: of this is because we need to learn from this 42 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: unless we want to keep on reeling from boom to bust, 43 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: over and over again. For more from Early Edition with 44 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: Ryan Bridge, listen live to News Talk set Be from 45 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.