1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,280
Speaker 1: So Trump is threatening tariffs overnight, He's threatening sanctions against Russia.

2
00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:07,800
Speaker 1: He wants the war with Ukraine ended, he wants it over.

3
00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:10,959
Speaker 1: And there was a real casual exchange yesterday in which

4
00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,520
Speaker 1: he said that Vladimir Putin appeared to be not doing

5
00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,600
Speaker 1: so well when it comes to dealing with the war

6
00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,200
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. And Kiir Charles is a senior expert on

7
00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,000
Speaker 1: Russia at Britain's Prestigiou Chatham Houses with us this morning.

8
00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,240
Speaker 2: Good morning, hello, good morning.

9
00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:26,119
Speaker 1: Is this threat going to work?

10
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,800
Speaker 2: Well? We have to see what Trump actually does as

11
00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,720
Speaker 2: opposed to what Trump actually says as always, and at

12
00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:34,720
Speaker 2: the moment, people are clutching at straws. They're trying to

13
00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,280
Speaker 2: guess exactly which way Trump might jump and what he

14
00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,479
Speaker 2: may or be able to do to fulfill his promise

15
00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:42,919
Speaker 2: of bringing this war to an end. They've towursted. Its

16
00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 2: encouraging for those people who feared that what he was

17
00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:47,920
Speaker 2: going to do was put maximum pressure on Ukraine to

18
00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,080
Speaker 2: knuckle under and bring the major fighting to a close

19
00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,240
Speaker 2: by effectively trying to force a surrender of Ukraine. This

20
00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,960
Speaker 2: looks like a more even handed approach to trying to

21
00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,280
Speaker 2: get both sides to find some way of ending the fighting.

22
00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,720
Speaker 2: But this still the danger that people fear that he

23
00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,480
Speaker 2: may try to bring off some kind of ceasefire that

24
00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,119
Speaker 2: doesn't address the underlying conflict. So it just gives Russia

25
00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,200
Speaker 2: a chance to rebuild its forces for another go, which.

26
00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,800
Speaker 1: Is why overnight you hear Zelenski talking about the need

27
00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:17,160
Speaker 1: for two hundred thousand Allied troops at the border. Should

28
00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:18,400
Speaker 1: there be a piece steel done.

29
00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 2: There are lots of ideas being thrown around for how

30
00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,000
Speaker 2: exactly Ukraine could perhaps some kind of security guarantees, some

31
00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,400
Speaker 2: way of deterring Russia from attacking again. And the way

32
00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,679
Speaker 2: this has worked across that western frontier of Russia, the

33
00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:36,440
Speaker 2: way NATO has ensured this is by having multinational contingents

34
00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:40,000
Speaker 2: in those forward NATO agents. It's the same formats that's

35
00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:43,080
Speaker 2: being proposed for Ukraine. Of course, the other question is

36
00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,880
Speaker 2: how many European countries are actually likely to sign up

37
00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,680
Speaker 2: to that, and that's a far harder issue. Who exactly

38
00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,400
Speaker 2: is going to guarantee the security of Ukraine against Russia?

39
00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,200
Speaker 1: Well not President Trump.

40
00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,720
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. And that's really focused the minds of Europe,

41
00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,720
Speaker 2: particularly West in European countries where there's been a bit

42
00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,680
Speaker 2: of a wave of panic after Trump arriving because they're

43
00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,440
Speaker 2: suddenly faced with the reality that they have to take

44
00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,040
Speaker 2: an interest in their own obligations to defend their own

45
00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,519
Speaker 2: countries instead of, as Trump quite rightly points out, freeloading

46
00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,200
Speaker 2: on the United States for the last few decades, and

47
00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,280
Speaker 2: so because that is such a huge challenge to their

48
00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,680
Speaker 2: own economies, because they've not been willing to do that

49
00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,960
Speaker 2: for so long. That of course has really been one

50
00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,400
Speaker 2: of the main things that has caused people concerned with

51
00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,519
Speaker 2: Trump arriving and this promise that he may not meet

52
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,760
Speaker 2: the United States's NATO commitments if called on to do so.

53
00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,480
Speaker 1: Fascinating stuff. Kea, thank you so much for your time. Kijiles,

54
00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,680
Speaker 1: the senior expert on Russia at Britain's prestigious Chatham House.

55
00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,160
Speaker 1: For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

56
00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,359
Speaker 1: news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow

57
00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:47,959
Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.