1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: No surprise predictions that it's going to be our farming 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: experts that get the economy firing again properly. This is 3 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:08,559 Speaker 1: according to Infometric's latest the economic forecasts, which say it's 4 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: only going to be the second half of next year 5 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: when we really start to feel the pick up. Josh 6 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: Hanner is the executive director of Export New Zealand and 7 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: with US. 8 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 2: Good morning, Josh, Good morning Heather. 9 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: Are you surprised that so far the doom and gloom 10 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: forecasts about the tariffs haven't yet materialized? 11 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 2: No, Look, I think we aren't too surprised about it. 12 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 2: You know, we have been hit by a ten percent 13 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 2: tariff and I think, as you said before, you know 14 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 2: there are consumers out there who are looking for New 15 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: Zealand products. 16 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: Do you think, though, given that we had the delay 17 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: through the first August, the worst is yet to come? 18 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: Look, I think it's it's hard to say. As you 19 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 2: said before as well, there has been a pause to 20 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 2: those reciprocal tariffs. I think that there is more to come, 21 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 2: you know, depending on what Trump has to say from 22 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 2: the podium. So it's a bit of a wait and 23 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 2: see again. 24 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, is the US still love our red meat? 25 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 2: I think so look, it's only it's not just red 26 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 2: meat that's really driving things here. You know, it's the 27 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 2: rest of the food and fiber sector as well. You know, 28 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 2: I've got some stats from March twenty twenty five quarter 29 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:13,960 Speaker 2: where deairy was up one point six percent. For it 30 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 2: was up three hundred and thirty two million dollars as well. 31 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,680 Speaker 2: But then if you look across the board on on 32 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 2: on New Zealand exports, you know, I think we saw 33 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 2: growth for most categories. There are too. Services exports in 34 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 2: quarter one this year also grew by about eight percent, 35 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,639 Speaker 2: by about six hundred and seventy five million dollars. 36 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: Right, Is this just into the US? 37 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 2: Sorry, no, this is this is globally. 38 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: This is everything, all right? 39 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 2: What about clarified? 40 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 1: What's going No, that's absolutely fine. What's going on with 41 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: China by the way, because we've talked a lot about 42 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: the fact that their economy is a bit on the slowdown. 43 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: But are they still buying our stuff? 44 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 2: I think that are still buying our stuff. Yeah, I 45 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 2: think they are still the number one export market for US. 46 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 2: There again, you know, it is sort of quite an 47 00:01:55,800 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 2: uncertain period just because of the uncertainty that remains around tariffs. 48 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 2: But look, things are still strong for us globally. 49 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: Do we need to talk about the price of butter. 50 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 2: Honey? If you want to, I don't want to. 51 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: Do you get restracted by it? 52 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 2: No? No, looks it is a challenge and I have 53 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 2: sort of spoken about it before. You know, it is 54 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 2: a challenge there for our domestic consumers. But ultimately New 55 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 2: Zealand is part of an international marketplace. We have to 56 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 2: sell ninety percent of our products overseas, and when demand 57 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: and prices are strong for New Zealand produce overseas. You know, 58 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 2: this is what this is what happens. 59 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,399 Speaker 1: I mean, it is good for the country, that's the thing. Now, 60 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: what do you make of this back down by Canada? 61 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, so, look, we're really happy with the result. We're 62 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 2: pleased to see that, you know, a year's long dispute 63 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 2: between New Zealand and Canada has been resolved. I think, 64 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 2: particularly also in the global trade context, just as we've 65 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 2: been talking about it's really essential that these free trade 66 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 2: agreements that we've signed up to, the their function has 67 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 2: agreed to. 68 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, what made them finally back down after all these years? 69 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 2: I'm not sure. I think again, it might just be 70 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 2: the intentional context. They need to be working with their 71 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 2: free trade partners just like we do. 72 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, perhaps so, Josh, it's good to talk to you. 73 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 1: Thank you, Josh Tan, who is the executive director at 74 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: Export New Zealand. So what if you've been following it, 75 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 1: you'll know that this thing with Canada's been playing out 76 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: for a while, right because we all signed up to 77 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: the CPTPP and then we wanted to send the dairy 78 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 1: to Canada. They started getting funny about it. They started 79 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: blocking the dairy inputs, triggered the compulsory negotiations through the CPTPP. 80 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: The panel found in our favor Canada ignoral. Canada is 81 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: not the nice guys everybody thinks they are are. They 82 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: just completely ignored it, and then we threatened some more 83 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: action last year, and then just overnight we've just heard 84 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: that they've back down. Finally, this is going to deliver 85 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: us up to maybe about one hundred and sixty million 86 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: dollars per year in extra export value. And you'd say 87 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: thank you to that. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 88 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks. They'd be from six am weekdays, 89 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.