WEBVTT - Helen Clark on Israel-Iran tensions: ‘Nothing learned’ from Iraq war and how we can get lasting peace

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<v Speaker 1>Kyota.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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<v Speaker 2>daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>has claimed that a ceasefire has been declared in the

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<v Speaker 2>war between Israel and Iran. Releasing a statement on Tuesday

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<v Speaker 2>morning and z time, Trump said there'd be a complete

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<v Speaker 2>and total cease fire in what he's.

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<v Speaker 1>Calling the twelve day War.

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<v Speaker 2>He also said the war could have destroyed the entire

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<v Speaker 2>Middle East and could have gone on for years, but

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<v Speaker 2>claimed both Israel and Iran came to him almost simultaneously

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<v Speaker 2>and said peace in all caps. While there remains uncertainty

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<v Speaker 2>about how long this ceasefire will last and how committed

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<v Speaker 2>both sides are to it, there also remains a question

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<v Speaker 2>about the legitimacy of the intelligence that sparked the targeting

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<v Speaker 2>of Iran's nuclear capabilities. To those familiar with how the

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<v Speaker 2>IRANQ war started, it does feel like a case of

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<v Speaker 2>history repeating itself. Former New Zealand Prime Minister and administrator

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<v Speaker 2>of the United Nations Development Program Helen Clark was instrumental

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<v Speaker 2>in our country not engaging in that war. She spoke

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<v Speaker 2>to the Front Page on Monday afternoon prior to the

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<v Speaker 2>ceasefire deal being announced to discuss her experiences with Middle

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<v Speaker 2>East conflicts and what the world should be doing to

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<v Speaker 2>bring lasting peace.

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<v Speaker 1>Helen, I guess I'm keen.

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<v Speaker 2>To start with what your thoughts generally are on the

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<v Speaker 2>situation happening in the Middle East at the moment.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a richest situation and very very threatening to all

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<v Speaker 3>of us, at least in terms of economic security.

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<v Speaker 4>You have the oil exports.

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<v Speaker 3>Coming out of Saudi Arabia, uae Bar in Kuwait, Iraq, etc.

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<v Speaker 3>Heading through the Straits of Hormuz, and if the Straits

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<v Speaker 3>of hor Moos get closed, then you can just imagine

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<v Speaker 3>what is going to happen to oil prices and the

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<v Speaker 3>cost of living impact on that right through the value

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<v Speaker 3>chain of energy, transport, food processing and the rest of it.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's very very worry, let alone the possibility of

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<v Speaker 3>any more death and destruction on a daily basis.

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<v Speaker 2>I think what's interesting about this case is it does

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<v Speaker 2>seem to bear some similarities to what we saw in

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<v Speaker 2>Iraq over twenty years ago, a war that you opposed

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<v Speaker 2>as Prime Minister of New Zealand. For our younger listeners

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<v Speaker 2>who don't remember that time, can you just remind us

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<v Speaker 2>of how that all started.

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<v Speaker 3>You are right that there are parallels. There's two of

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<v Speaker 3>the same objectives with Iraq. The case that the US

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<v Speaker 3>made was that Iraq had weapons.

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<v Speaker 4>Of mass destruction.

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<v Speaker 3>Now what turned out to be the truth was that

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<v Speaker 3>the weapons they did have and had used in the

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<v Speaker 3>past had been destroyed after the First Golf War when

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<v Speaker 3>a UN process went in, So that was a false

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<v Speaker 3>basis for invasion. And the second objective was regime change,

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<v Speaker 3>and that those two objectives apply to the Saranian excursion

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<v Speaker 3>by Israel and the US today. Now, on the issue

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<v Speaker 3>of weapons of mass destruction, namely nuclear weapons, there is

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<v Speaker 3>no credible evidence that Iran is on the brink of

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<v Speaker 3>using a nuclear weapon or has even developed one. Yes,

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<v Speaker 3>it has nuclear activities, we know that, and that's been

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<v Speaker 3>an issue of concern, but the credible assessment of imminent

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<v Speaker 3>use and attack is just not there.

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<v Speaker 4>Secondly, we think of the.

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<v Speaker 3>Tortured history of Iraq, both before the invasion in two

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<v Speaker 3>thousand and three and then after it. It was hugely

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<v Speaker 3>destabilized when the structures that it did have were dismantled

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<v Speaker 3>at the rise of Isis, which of course led to

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<v Speaker 3>widespread sh human rights abuses of the peoples and the

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<v Speaker 3>areas that they occupied in Iraq and Syria. It really

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<v Speaker 3>hasn't settled to this day, and to think that we

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<v Speaker 3>might be in for a similarly protracted date of fragility

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<v Speaker 3>in Iran such as that which followed the Iraq War

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<v Speaker 3>is very, very disturbing.

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<v Speaker 2>Is it fair to say that you faced a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of pressure at the time to fall into line with

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<v Speaker 2>the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, in all truth, there was very little pressure for

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<v Speaker 3>New Zealand to get involved. It was obliquely raised with

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<v Speaker 3>me sometime before the invasion actually occurred, and my response

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<v Speaker 3>was firm by the time it came close to the

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<v Speaker 3>invasion and when the Security Council was considering the matter

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<v Speaker 3>in New York and New Zealand's position was very clear

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<v Speaker 3>and we came under no pressure. Now, the only countries

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<v Speaker 3>who invaded Iraq were the US, the UK, Australia and Spain.

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<v Speaker 3>It was a pretty small group. Most of the world

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<v Speaker 3>was appalled because again it didn't meet the tests under

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<v Speaker 3>international law of self defense in the face of an

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<v Speaker 3>imminent threat of at tech and that's the test that

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<v Speaker 3>we must also apply here. That Israel was not under

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<v Speaker 3>imminent threat of attack, and nor was the United States

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<v Speaker 3>of America.

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<v Speaker 5>President posting on truth Social this quote, it's not politically

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<v Speaker 5>correct to use the term regime change, but if the

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<v Speaker 5>current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again,

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<v Speaker 5>why wouldn't there be a regime change? And then he'd

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<v Speaker 5>put the phrase MIGA or make Iran great again? Defense

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<v Speaker 5>Secretary Pete Hegseth and JD Vance, the Vice President, have

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<v Speaker 5>flat out set on Sunday that that was not the plan.

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<v Speaker 1>Take a listen.

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<v Speaker 6>This mission was not and has not been about regime change.

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<v Speaker 6>The President authorized a precision operation to neutralize the threats

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<v Speaker 6>to our national interests posed by the Iranian nuclear program.

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<v Speaker 6>Our view has been very clear that we don't want

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<v Speaker 6>a regime change.

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<v Speaker 2>And you touched on this before, but a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>the Iraq War became about deposing Saddam Hussein and pushing

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<v Speaker 2>through a regime change. Donald Trump has now contradicted previous

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<v Speaker 2>statements that the US is not seeking a regime change

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<v Speaker 2>in Iran, but he also wrote that if the current

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why

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<v Speaker 2>wouldn't there be a regime change?

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<v Speaker 4>Now?

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<v Speaker 1>How concerning is this?

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<v Speaker 3>So I think I would speak for just about everybody

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<v Speaker 3>in you Zealand if I said, and I will, that

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<v Speaker 3>their Iranian regime is not a nice one, and nor

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<v Speaker 3>was Saddam husseins that the problem is that when change

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<v Speaker 3>is forced on a country by outside forces, that in

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<v Speaker 3>itself becomes very, very destabilizing, as we saw with Iraq.

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<v Speaker 3>And the chances are that if Israel and the United

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<v Speaker 3>States were to succeed with quote regime change in the

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<v Speaker 3>short term, you you may have a very unpredictable and

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<v Speaker 3>volatile country, even a failed state, which Iraq in effect

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<v Speaker 3>became after the destabilization of two thousand and three. So

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<v Speaker 3>it may be a question of be careful what you

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<v Speaker 3>wish for. In the end, it's the people of a

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<v Speaker 3>country that must determine who governs them, not outside forces.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and when it comes to regime changes, I suppose

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<v Speaker 1>I'm thinking of that ancient Greek myth of Hydra with

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<v Speaker 1>the heads, and once you cut off one head, another

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<v Speaker 1>one grows.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, you can envisits from the rhetoric at the moment

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<v Speaker 3>that those responsible for these attacks now are doing their

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<v Speaker 3>best to locate the supreme leader, and it hasn't been

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<v Speaker 3>ruled out that he may be on an assassination list.

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<v Speaker 4>But what next.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, they have already assassinated senior military and signed

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear science figures. But there's a whole structure under them.

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<v Speaker 3>So it may be that you go from the devil,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, as it were, to then down to the

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<v Speaker 3>captains and sergeants of the operation with a lot more unpredictability.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's just not as simple as saying we will

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<v Speaker 3>remove act and why and somehow there'll be a democratic

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<v Speaker 3>regime in the image of the West.

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<v Speaker 4>That's not going to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>And this is the folly of these kinds of military adventures.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of countries are calling for a return to

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<v Speaker 2>the negotiation table as a solution to things at the moment,

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<v Speaker 2>do you think that would work or has the horse

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<v Speaker 2>bolted so to speak?

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<v Speaker 3>So look, it has to work in the end. We

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<v Speaker 3>have to get back to talks. Otherwise a balloon goes

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<v Speaker 3>up with entirely unpredictable consequences. What if no oil can

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<v Speaker 3>leave the Gulf, the world economy is thrown into turmoil.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, what if the war expands, What if American

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<v Speaker 3>hit What if then there's more widespread US bombing Parana,

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<v Speaker 3>it's unthinkable.

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<v Speaker 4>So Winston Peters was absolutely.

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<v Speaker 3>Right to call for an end to the conflict and

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<v Speaker 3>return to the negotiating table. That's what everyone's calling for,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's not easy to achieve that in the circumstances.

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<v Speaker 4>We're now in. And you know, the Iranians, you know, obviously.

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<v Speaker 3>Are in a mood where they want to strike back,

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<v Speaker 3>but every time they strike, more of their capacity is

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<v Speaker 3>taken out, and you know this could spiral on and on.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think all voices, including our countries, must be

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<v Speaker 3>heard for an end to the bombing, both science and

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<v Speaker 3>getting back to talks.

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<v Speaker 2>Given the Iraq War is widely seen as an abject failure,

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<v Speaker 2>do you think we are at risk of falling down

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<v Speaker 2>the same path again?

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<v Speaker 1>Have we learned anything?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's clear that nothing has been learned at all

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<v Speaker 3>because the Iraq War had disastrous consequences. So one loses

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<v Speaker 3>track of the great many people who died of starvation, hunger,

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<v Speaker 3>poverty in Iraq after the invasion, let alone they spin

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<v Speaker 3>out with isis the huge security threats in the countries

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<v Speaker 3>of this day? Who would wish that on the people

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<v Speaker 3>of Iran? What I have been noticing is that even

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<v Speaker 3>people who have been terribly persecuted by the Iranian regime

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<v Speaker 3>have come out in social media and so please do

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<v Speaker 3>not bomb my country.

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<v Speaker 4>This is not the way.

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<v Speaker 3>Diplomacy is the way, and that's what we have to

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<v Speaker 3>hang out for.

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<v Speaker 4>I think there's another important point too.

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<v Speaker 3>New Zealand has been for a very long time, half

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<v Speaker 3>a century or more strong voice for nuclear disarmament. We

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<v Speaker 3>don't support actually anyone having a nuclear weapon. The five

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<v Speaker 3>permanent members of the Security Council have them the other

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<v Speaker 3>acknowledged club. But India, Pakistan, Democratic Republican, North Korea so

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<v Speaker 3>called have nuclear capacity. Iran it has not been demonstrated,

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<v Speaker 3>but it could go that way, which is what.

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<v Speaker 4>The inspections have been about.

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<v Speaker 3>Israel is estimated to have some ninety plutonium based nuclear

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<v Speaker 3>warheads and enough plutonium for one hundred to two hundred weapons.

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<v Speaker 3>In other words, in this context in the Middle East,

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<v Speaker 3>this war is like putting a match to dynamite.

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<v Speaker 4>We do not know what could happen.

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<v Speaker 7>We talked about a lot of subjects. We talked about

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<v Speaker 7>the importance for the United States and New Zealand to

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<v Speaker 7>work cooperatively and helping democracy in places like Afghanistan. We

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<v Speaker 7>talked about North Korea and Iran, our mutual desire for

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<v Speaker 7>these problems of our nation's wanting to have nuclear weapons

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<v Speaker 7>to be solved in a peaceful way by using the

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<v Speaker 7>diplomatic process.

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<v Speaker 1>All in all, I.

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<v Speaker 7>Found to be a construct for conversation, such a good conversation.

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<v Speaker 7>I've decided to invite her for lunch.

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<v Speaker 2>And you've been in the room when these kind of

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<v Speaker 2>talks have happened in the past. Is there anything to

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<v Speaker 2>suggest here that there is some kind of intelligence about

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<v Speaker 2>that Iran was further along in its manufacture of nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>weapons than perhaps we're led on to believe.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's have some context here. Back in the twenty tens,

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<v Speaker 3>United States and the Europeans negotiated with Iran a joint

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<v Speaker 3>and comprehensive program of action through which Iran agreed to

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<v Speaker 3>limit its nuclear program in return for relief from sanctions.

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<v Speaker 4>When President Trump came to office, he scuttled that agreement

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<v Speaker 4>in twenty eighteen.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, the International Atomic Energy Agency has continued to carry

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<v Speaker 3>out its inspections for the best that it can in Iran,

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<v Speaker 3>but it did report on the twelfth of June that

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<v Speaker 3>Iran was not responding with adequate explanations about its nuclear materials,

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<v Speaker 3>and they haven't really had adequate site access either, So

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<v Speaker 3>that's a concern, but that is a very different matter

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<v Speaker 3>from saying though on the brink of firing a nuclear weapon.

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<v Speaker 3>I would also point out that Israel is not a

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<v Speaker 3>signatory to the Non Proliferation Treaty, so the International Atomic

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<v Speaker 3>Energy Agency never reports on Israel's nuclear program because it

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<v Speaker 3>has no capacity to.

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<v Speaker 2>Does this kind of show the flaws with the United Nations?

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<v Speaker 2>If there's a charter that can be broken and ignored

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<v Speaker 2>so easily by a permanent member of the Security Council,

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<v Speaker 2>is there a point to the organization?

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<v Speaker 3>We're in a very very fragile position with the multilateral system. Now,

0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:33.240
<v Speaker 3>look on the Security Council you have Russia sitting, which

0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:38.000
<v Speaker 3>invaded Ukraine, totally illegal under international law and a breach

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:41.520
<v Speaker 3>to the UN Charter. This bombing now by the United

0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:46.439
<v Speaker 3>States of Iran will also be deemed illegal under international law.

0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 3>So if those who hold the veto on the Security

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 3>Council willfully breach international law, what hope for the rest

0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:57.959
<v Speaker 3>of US and for New Zealand, which has always stood

0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:01.600
<v Speaker 3>by international law because as a small state.

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<v Speaker 4>That's all we've got. That's all we've got.

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<v Speaker 3>It is extremely worrying and we need to be holding

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<v Speaker 3>hands with a vast majority of the world's countries who

0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:13.560
<v Speaker 3>are appalled by this, because most of them don't have

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:17.920
<v Speaker 3>much might either and do depend on an international order

0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:19.880
<v Speaker 3>based on international law.

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.040
<v Speaker 2>It does seem quite archaic that the Five Countries can

0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:26.240
<v Speaker 2>veto decisions, you know, like a call for peace in Ukraine,

0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:27.720
<v Speaker 2>for example, can obviously.

0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:28.760
<v Speaker 1>Be vetoed by Russia.

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:31.840
<v Speaker 4>Can that be changed, well, yes it should.

0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 3>And again New Zealand can hold its head high because

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 3>going back to the drafting of the UN Charter in

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:41.440
<v Speaker 3>ninety forty five, Peter Fraser, leading the New Zealand delegation

0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:45.760
<v Speaker 3>as Prime Minister, stood out against the veto. Now, I

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.760
<v Speaker 3>think we ended up with a veto because the League

0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 3>of Nations, which had failed to stop World War II

0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 3>and had gone out of business. The Americans were never

0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.320
<v Speaker 3>a member of it, and it seemed that the only

0:14:57.360 --> 0:14:59.560
<v Speaker 3>way the Americans were going to come into the UN

0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:03.240
<v Speaker 3>was have a veto right in the Security Council. But

0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:05.600
<v Speaker 3>here we are, you know, this is the eightieth year

0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:09.000
<v Speaker 3>of the UN Charter. Here we are the five victor

0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.840
<v Speaker 3>countries from World War II have a veto. To this day,

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:15.280
<v Speaker 3>they are using it in a way which also was

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:18.120
<v Speaker 3>not envisaged by the UN Charter, which is that there

0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:20.800
<v Speaker 3>should not be its use where the matter at hand

0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:25.360
<v Speaker 3>directly concerns the country casting the vito. But that course

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:27.400
<v Speaker 3>is all lost in the mist of time. So we

0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:31.800
<v Speaker 3>have a security Council that's highly polarized, highly dysfunctional, and

0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 3>unable to make a useful contribution to international peace and security.

0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:40.360
<v Speaker 1>Helen, if Christopher Luxen called you tomorrow asking for your

0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:44.200
<v Speaker 1>advice on what New Zealand should do next in this situation,

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:45.160
<v Speaker 1>what would that be?

0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:49.440
<v Speaker 3>What I would say is have New Zealand's voice firmly

0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 3>heard for international law and for a return to diplomacy, quickly,

0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:59.080
<v Speaker 3>call for the cease fire, core for the negotiations, called

0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:04.240
<v Speaker 3>for disarmament as we always have, put your stake in

0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:06.400
<v Speaker 3>the ground and what New Zealand's stood for for a

0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:07.280
<v Speaker 3>very long time.

0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:08.720
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for joining us, Helen.

0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:09.400
<v Speaker 4>Thank you.

0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:16.160
<v Speaker 2>That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You

0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:20.000
<v Speaker 2>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:21.840
<v Speaker 2>at enzdherld.

0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 1>Dot co dot nz.

0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:27.440
<v Speaker 2>The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who.

0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:31.080
<v Speaker 1>Is also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels.

0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:34.800
<v Speaker 2>Subscribe to the front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you

0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:38.640
<v Speaker 2>get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look

0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.320
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