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Speaker 1: So GDP for Q two was minus zero point two,

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Speaker 1: so glass half fall not as bad as consensus, and

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Speaker 1: in a week in fact, we've seen simple surveys that

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Speaker 1: indicate from business to manufacturing, the services to consumers, we

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Speaker 1: might might just be seeing a little bit of light

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Speaker 1: at the end of the old tunnel. Finance Minister Nicola

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Speaker 1: willis with us for this Friday.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning mate.

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Speaker 1: So it could have been worse.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it could have been worse. But ultimately I think

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Speaker 2: we think back to the dooing Porter. We know that

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Speaker 2: that was before the Reserve Band had reduced interest rates.

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Speaker 2: Things felt pretty tough in the economy. So I don't

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Speaker 2: think we're surprised by this number, and it does reflect

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Speaker 2: the result of a long period of high interest rates

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Speaker 2: which have squeezed the economy, and of course those were

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Speaker 2: a response to an extended period of high inflation. Go

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Speaker 2: I'd characterized where we are right now as a country,

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Speaker 2: as we are still in clean up mode, we're laying

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Speaker 2: the foundation's growth rise ahead.

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Speaker 1: Could it be possible that Q three some suggesting Q

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Speaker 1: three would not be as bad as Q two. Therefore,

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Speaker 1: of Q two wasn't as bad as we thought it's possible.

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Speaker 1: Q three is not even backwards, therefore we're not actually

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Speaker 1: in recession.

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Speaker 2: That is possible. I'm conscious that the interest rate reduction

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Speaker 2: happens in August, which is late in the September quarter,

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Speaker 2: so we'll see. What I take a lot of heart

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Speaker 2: from is the forward indicators. So what I care about

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Speaker 2: is inflation coming out of control. Yes, forecasts to be

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Speaker 2: back this quarter, our interest rates coming down. Yes, We've

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Speaker 2: had our first reduction earlier than some have been forecasting,

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Speaker 2: and the forecast to keep falling. And is that seeing

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Speaker 2: a change in business confidence? Yes, the surveys are showing

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Speaker 2: that businesses think the year ahead is better. And that's

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Speaker 2: good because when business is a confident and interest rates

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Speaker 2: are lower and inflation is lower, that's when you get investments.

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Speaker 2: That's when firms start hiring people, they start innovating, buying

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Speaker 2: your machinery. That's where growth comes from. And that's what

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Speaker 2: we are very focused on. What can we as a

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Speaker 2: government do to make it easier for people to export,

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Speaker 2: to hire people to innovate, get the red tape out

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Speaker 2: of the way, get on with growing. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of which, the current account though was shocking, it

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Speaker 1: didn't change as a percentage of GDP, but it's a

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Speaker 1: shocking number. Are you doing anything specific or is that

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Speaker 1: beyond your control in the buying and selling of stuff

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Speaker 1: to the world.

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Speaker 2: That is in our agenda and the specific thing that

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Speaker 2: we can do, of course is drive better trade relationships

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Speaker 2: around the world. Todd McClay has been working very hard

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Speaker 2: on that and we will be in a position to

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Speaker 2: have new trading relationships as a government, we will have

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Speaker 2: more to say about that. It's important as exporters have

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Speaker 2: more markets to send their goods to. We also think

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Speaker 2: that it's important that you can actually get big developments

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Speaker 2: into New Zealand. The fast track Consenting ragiene I think

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Speaker 2: has been underestimated as an economic reform because ultimately, if

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Speaker 2: you want gross in an economy, people have to be

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Speaker 2: able to say, I'm going to do that big housing development,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to do that big mining development, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to do that big manufacturing facility, and our fast track

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Speaker 2: mechanism will unlock that investment, which rule helps to productivity

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Speaker 2: and eventually flows through to your current account.

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Speaker 1: Okay, two part question. Carmel was busy on this in

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Speaker 1: question time yesterday. So the job seeking numbers forecast now

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Speaker 1: at two fourteen thousand to peak and jen of twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Two part question is that the end of it? And

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Speaker 1: two how would we know given most of the forecasts

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Speaker 1: are wrong?

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Speaker 2: Well, the fourth bus do tell us that unemployment is

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Speaker 2: het to keep rising. There's always a lag effect that

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Speaker 2: comes off the back of these declining these decline and

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Speaker 2: growth figures. But here's a number that I'm really focused on,

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Speaker 2: which is how many people are exiting the job seeker

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Speaker 2: benefit and going back into work. And really positively that

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Speaker 2: number is higher this year than it was last year

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Speaker 2: on a month or a month basis. Why because actually,

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Speaker 2: when you say to people there is a sanctions regime.

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Speaker 2: If you're on the benefit, it's not meant to be

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Speaker 2: forever or a lifestyle. We want to help you to

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Speaker 2: get back into jobs. You can keep people flowing through.

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Speaker 2: Now that's not to say it's not a challenging environments,

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Speaker 2: it's not sound. Employment isn't a number that's been going up,

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Speaker 2: but we are confident we can keep moving Kiwis into jobs.

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Speaker 1: Good, have a good weekend, Appreciate it. Nichola Willis, the

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Speaker 1: Finance Minister. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast Listen

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