1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: So fifty points. It was another fifty likely in February. 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: The forecast for growth have been cut. More jobs still 3 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: to be lost and that's the final word from the 4 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: Reserve Bank for the year. Former Finance Minister Steven Joyce 5 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: with us very good. 6 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 2: Morning morning, mikel. 7 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: Those growth trimmed forecasts. Some some's not right here. There's 8 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: a lot of cuts, and we're supposed to be fizzing. 9 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We're not fizzing. 10 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 2: What's happening, thanks time. Unfortunately, you are seeing some green 11 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: shoots of growth from what I can see in areas 12 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 2: like commercial property not residential. You're seeing things. And obviously 13 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 2: the dairy industry is starting to go Kiwi fruit's been solid. 14 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: Tech sector is pretty solid. But you know, big, big 15 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 2: employing industries like services and retail of being flat as 16 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 2: a pancake, and of course residential property construction and so on, 17 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 2: and that's just going to take time. Unfortunately. You know, 18 00:00:54,200 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 2: we're dealing with a lot of hangover from our period 19 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 2: that goes right back to the beginnings of the pandemic. 20 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 2: And frankly, I would say a heavy footed governor who 21 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: went really hard early, then went really hard up and 22 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 2: is now coming out of the way and it's just, 23 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 2: you know, for a lot of balance sheets that's just 24 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 2: been too bloody heart. 25 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: He admitted that to a degree yesterday, not as much 26 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: as he should have, but he got there. He got 27 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 1: there in the end as finance minister. If you were 28 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 1: finance minister, would you have you wanted to have seen 29 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: seventy five? And do you listen to him with confidence? 30 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: Well, if I was finance minister, of course i'd listened 31 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 2: to him confidence. Who's a Reserve bank governor. But I'm 32 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 2: not the finance minister's I can listen to a certain 33 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 2: amount of skeptism. The look, I truly don't think yesterday 34 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 2: is is sort of much either way. It's point five now. 35 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 2: Point five in February could have been point seventy five. 36 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 2: But in some ways that might have spooked more people 37 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 2: that have actually helped, because they would have gone, oh, 38 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: you know, it's even worse than we thought. And the 39 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 2: real problem we've got right now, there's a whole lot 40 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,559 Speaker 2: of people aren't spending because they're still not confident that 41 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 2: the pathway ahead for their businesses is solid enough. The 42 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 2: part of its confidence right now, if he really wanted 43 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 2: to know to sort of break them ald a little bit. 44 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 2: Then I would argue they should come should have come 45 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 2: back three weeks earlier at the end of January and 46 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 2: done something different there, just to show that they were 47 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 2: on the case. But I think it's probably not much 48 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 2: of a muchness in the overall scheme of things. It's 49 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 2: going to come right to some degree next year, but. 50 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: Not not as right as they thought it was. And see, 51 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 1: here's my consumer with the politics of it all. So 52 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 1: they've Luxing and Co. Put out a press release two 53 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: and a half seconds after Adrian speaks, and it's almost 54 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: like they are now in cahoots, like they're desperately looking 55 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: for Adrian to be right for political purposes so they 56 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: can then go and sell this message to the public. 57 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: And it's just it isn't there. 58 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 2: Well, we all want Adrian to be right in the 59 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,679 Speaker 2: sense of helping get the economy game, but I think 60 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,679 Speaker 2: probably for the government it's it's a case of having 61 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 2: to show even more urgency. And some of the things 62 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 2: that I've been working on, things like the electricity market, 63 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 2: which has a sting in the tail potentially next year 64 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 2: early next year, the banking sector, where probably the Reserve 65 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 2: Bank has got off pretty lightly so far in that context, 66 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 2: and the government has to form some strong views but 67 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 2: also attracting international investment. Quite a lot of talk so far, 68 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 2: not a lot of action. Those things are the sort 69 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 2: of things that need to move quickly to sort of 70 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 2: give more confidence, because it's confidence we're looking for in 71 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 2: the economy now. And as I say, there's some green 72 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 2: shroops appearing now, I don't want to be too doom 73 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 2: and gloom because there are you talk to some sectors 74 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 2: things are starting to move finally, but there's plenty of 75 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 2: sectors yet, and some of them have had structural changes 76 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 2: that are not going to go back. So retail's had 77 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 2: a structural change with all these international websites and so 78 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 2: and it's going to make life more difficult. But I 79 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 2: think the government's got to show probably going to take 80 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 2: five minutes off over Christmas and then show renewed their 81 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 2: urgency in the first half of next year. And frankly, 82 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: the governor should be reflecting on just how Hardy pushed 83 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 2: interest rates up, because these things have a lag and 84 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 2: he just went so hard for so long. In the 85 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,119 Speaker 2: same way he went down so hard for so long 86 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:25,919 Speaker 2: that actually, you know a lot of people's balance sheets 87 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 2: are really, really weak, and unfortunately that means the recovery 88 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 2: is slower and longer because they don't have the capacity 89 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 2: to invest. 90 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: Very well said as always Stephen Joyce, former Finance Minister, 91 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:38,359 Speaker 1: with us for more from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen 92 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: live to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, 93 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.