1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,760 Speaker 1: So with a meeting maybe in the wings. That could 2 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,480 Speaker 1: be in Budapirsto or Switzerland or anywhere else you might 3 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: want to guess. It could involve two people or three people, 4 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: a by let or a tri let. The upshot is 5 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,319 Speaker 1: the pressure is on the US president at the moment 6 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: to deliver on a piece deal for Ukraine. He's busy 7 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,479 Speaker 1: claiming he is the war solver in chief. Seven wars 8 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: and counting as of yesterday, are all make Nick Bryant, 9 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: author of everything from When America Stopped Being Great to 10 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: The Forever War, is beck with us. 11 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: Nick, Good morning, Hey Mike, how are you? 12 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: I'm very well, indeed, I'll start with the last question. First, 13 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: how do you think all this ends? 14 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 2: Well, it's so difficult to say, isn't it. Presumably it 15 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 2: ends Mike with Donald Trump at some stage really saying 16 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:45,919 Speaker 2: to Vladimir Putin issuing him an ultimatum. This has to stop, 17 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: and if it doesn't, we will exert pressure on you. 18 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 2: The problem is, Mike, that crunch moment never comes, does it. 19 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 2: When he headed to Alaska, he said, I am demanding 20 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 2: a cease far. And if there isn't a cease far, 21 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 2: there are going to be serious concepts. Vladimir Pusin, he 22 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 2: was talking about more sanctions. He was talking about secondary 23 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 2: sanctions from countries like India and China, who by Russias, 24 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 2: all who basically sort of helped finance the war effort 25 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:14,839 Speaker 2: through those purchases. And what happened in Alaska Trump back down. 26 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: He came away with nothing from Pusin. And that's the problem. 27 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 2: As you said, he just seems to be sort of 28 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 2: making it up as as he's going along a bilateral 29 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 2: or a trilateral Budapest or Switzerland. There just doesn't seem 30 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 2: to be a strategic plan. As so often happens, it 31 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 2: seems that Trump is influenced by the last person he 32 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 2: speaks to. This week, it was the Europeans of Vladimirzelenski 33 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 2: in Washington, that extraordinary summit this time. Last week, of course, 34 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 2: it was Vladimir Putin in another extraordinary summit in Alaska. 35 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 2: There's just doesn't seem to be a coherent strategy, Mike, 36 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 2: So it's hard to see how this ends. 37 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: Do you think there will be a meeting will Putin show? 38 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: Well, he has always rejected the legitimacy of Vladimir Zelenski 39 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 2: as the president of Ukraine. He has always regarded him 40 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 2: as a junior. He doesn't see any parity between Russia 41 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 2: and Ukraine. He wants to see a puppet in Ukraine. 42 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 2: He wants to see a Russia friendly Ukraine. And he's 43 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: never stepped back, Mike, from that core demand throughout this process. 44 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 2: Over the last few weeks, as Donald Trump has had 45 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 2: these phone calls, as Donald Trump has had this face 46 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 2: to face, Vladimir Putin has made absolutely zero concessions. And 47 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,799 Speaker 2: while this process has been going on, of course, he's 48 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 2: intensifying the war. I mean, after being given that letter 49 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 2: from Milania, Trump's saying, you know, stop basically stop killing kids. 50 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 2: He keeps on killing kids. And it goes back to 51 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 2: this relationship, Mike, which is the most fascinating balladder relationship 52 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 2: on the planet right now, between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. 53 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,679 Speaker 2: I do not understand that relationship. I've been thinking about 54 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 2: that relationship for the last sort of eight or nine years. 55 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 2: I think the only two people really understand it at 56 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 2: Putin and Trump. Who knows what happened in Alaska, especially 57 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: in that private moment we're in the beast together. You know, 58 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 2: they have that sort of ridiculous sort of red carpet 59 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 2: stagecraft and choreographed entry into Alaska. They get into the 60 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 2: car together. You know, Trump is generally deferred to by 61 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 2: every international leader, but the relationship is so different with Putin, 62 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 2: isn't it. He just seems to go weak at the 63 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 2: knees when Putin is around. He seems to defer to Putin. 64 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 2: His language, his body language is so different. He never 65 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: gets what he wants out of Putin. And I don't 66 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 2: know why, and I don't think anybody really does. 67 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: What's happened. What I find interesting is this was a 68 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: bloke who's isolationist to Mierica first, and if you listen 69 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: to Marjorie Taylor Green and all that lot, this isn't 70 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: the a war. He didn't seem interested. He was going 71 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: to give you a meeting. This is months ago. And 72 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: if you don't want to do what, I'm out, I'm done. 73 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: I've got a better things to do with in the time. 74 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: Now he's back solving, according to him, seven wars. Is 75 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: he a niceist or is he solving the world's problems. 76 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 2: I don't think he's ever been an isolationist in the 77 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: traditional sense, which is to basically retreat to America to 78 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 2: kind of regard America as a country that wouldn't really 79 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: connect in a significant way with other countries in a 80 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 2: significant way with other conflicts around the world. And I 81 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 2: think during the second term he's become a real interventionist. 82 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Trump can claimed credit for intervening 83 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 2: in some conflicts in a very helpful way. I mean, 84 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 2: not least the Indo Pakistan flare up over that attack 85 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 2: in Kashmir earlier in the year that had the potential 86 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 2: pight to go really really ugly. I mean, these are 87 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 2: two nuclear arm powers. Back in two thousand and one, 88 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 2: two thousand and two, there was a conflagration there that 89 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 2: really looked like it could spiral a lot of control. 90 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 2: And the Trump administration was very quick in this instance 91 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,360 Speaker 2: to stop that. You know, we' seen these these these 92 00:04:54,400 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 2: peace deals in Africa, and you know, the the problem is, Mike, 93 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 2: I mean so often Trump goes for this kind of 94 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 2: performative diplomacy. It's it's stagecraft rather than state craft. It's 95 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 2: not the kind of patient slog that you really need 96 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 2: to get a lasting piece. I mean, the example would 97 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 2: be Northern Ireland. You know, the good Friday agreement took years. 98 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 2: It took patient negotiation by the Clinton administration, in particular 99 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 2: the former US Democratic Senator George Mitchell. It was a 100 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 2: slow process. It was an agonizing process. It required enormous detail, 101 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 2: you know, looking at maps and things like that. And 102 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 2: you know, Trump just hasn't got this patience, which is 103 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 2: why it's sort of throwing out all these different ideas. 104 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 2: It's almost like it's episodic mic. I mean, in Alaska 105 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 2: it was the kind of Pudin show, and this week 106 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 2: it was the kind of Zelenski and the European Leaders show. 107 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,719 Speaker 2: And next week it'll be the maybe the Budapest show 108 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 2: or the Geneva show. And there's always a cliffhanger. He 109 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 2: runs his foreign policy on stuff like this as if 110 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 2: it is a reality TV show, and that's what makes 111 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 2: it so difficult to follow. And that's what makes it 112 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 2: so difficult to trust the process. Because when America starts 113 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 2: talking about security guarantees, are they worth anything or is 114 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 2: it just the kind of diplomatic equivalent of a degree 115 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 2: from Trump University. 116 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: A very good point. Let me broaden it out a 117 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 1: bit further, neck the president since we've been a while, 118 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: since we've talked the presidency so far, specifically court battles, 119 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: in his ability to sort of do seemingly what he wants. 120 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 1: He appears and I know this is a sweeping statement, 121 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: but he appears to win more in court than he doesn't. 122 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: So he's allowed to do what he wants to do. 123 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: Is that a fear assessment? And if it is, is 124 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 1: it good presidency. 125 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 2: He's not winning every single battle in the Supreme Court, 126 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 2: but he is winning many of the key battles in 127 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 2: the Supreme Court. There was a ruling earlier, a couple 128 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 2: of months ago, which said, for instance, that lower court 129 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 2: judges could not sort of block his policies, which was 130 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 2: a really big win for Donald Trump. And of course, 131 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 2: he got the really big win before he became president, 132 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 2: which is when the Supreme Court ruled that he basically 133 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 2: had presidential immunity and other presidents did as well, which 134 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 2: gave him really not untrammeled pab an awful lot of power. Yeah, 135 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 2: and he's using that. I think the Trump summer, you know, 136 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 2: the Trump Northern summer. We have seen Trump in full, 137 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 2: you know, we have seen Trump as the protectionists. We've 138 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 2: seen Trump as this kind of you know, an interventionist. Now, 139 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 2: I mean somebody who I think is more interested in 140 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 2: the art of the photo op to be honest, in 141 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 2: the art of the deal. But you know, he is 142 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 2: intervening in these conflicts partly because he wants to be 143 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 2: at the center of the action. I mean, that's kind 144 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 2: of you know, this is an attention seeking president, and 145 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 2: the way to get attention is to put yourself in 146 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 2: the middle of these things. You know, we've seen Trump 147 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 2: the kind of authoritarian putting troops into Los Angeles, putting 148 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 2: troops now in to Washington, d C. In places where 149 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 2: there isn't crime. You know, if you if you're going 150 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 2: to start putting troops on the National Mile the National 151 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 2: Mail Mic, as you know, is a very safe place 152 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 2: in Washington. The places that aren't safe are the places 153 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,559 Speaker 2: that are not getting troops at the moment. So it's again, 154 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 2: it seems like a performanceive show of force to underscore 155 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 2: his authority. And we're seeing this kind of you know, 156 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 2: the protectionist as well, you know, just hammering these these 157 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 2: taffs against countries. You know, we are we're but I 158 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 2: was in the States recently, Mike, and you know, he's 159 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 2: still not a majority president. He has never cracked fifty 160 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:45,079 Speaker 2: percent in the Gallup approval ratings. He's the only president 161 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 2: in history not to do that since this Poland began 162 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 2: in the kind of late nineteen thirties. He didn't get 163 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 2: fifty percent in the election. Sure he won the popular vote, 164 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 2: but he only got forty nine point nine eight percent. 165 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 2: We talk about Trump's America, but it isn't really Trump's 166 00:08:57,640 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 2: America yet. You know, Reagan won forty nine out of 167 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 2: fifty states when he ran in nineteen eighty four. You know, 168 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 2: George Perbert Walker Bush one forty out of fifty and 169 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 2: got more than fifty percent of the vote. Trump's never 170 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 2: got that. So, although you know he's trying to mold 171 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 2: America in his image, he hasn't managed to do that yet. 172 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 2: And there are signs that the tariffs are starting to buy, 173 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 2: that inflation is starting to go up. The people are 174 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 2: still angry that the price of eggs hasn't come down. 175 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 2: You know, we kind of look at Trump as if 176 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 2: he's a nipotent he's on the present, but he hasn't 177 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 2: dominated America yet in the way that he would have. 178 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 1: Liked, which brings me on the question is how's he 179 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:34,839 Speaker 1: setting them up his party there is for the twenty 180 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,320 Speaker 1: six midterms. 181 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,080 Speaker 2: Well, I think there's an expectation that, you know, the 182 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,839 Speaker 2: Republicans lose the House. I mean, you know, they've got 183 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 2: such a narrow majority the Hause of Representatives which they 184 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: control right now, to control the Senate as well. You know, 185 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 2: incumbent presidents generally suffer losses in the midterm elections, and 186 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 2: it would not require many seats to shift hands for 187 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,959 Speaker 2: the Democrats to be in control. Then the Democrats get oversight, 188 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 2: then the Democrats can still launching investigations. I mean, that 189 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 2: doesn't give you massive power, but it gives you a 190 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 2: certain amount of power to kind of rein him in 191 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 2: the Senate. Map is harder for the Democrats than it 192 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 2: is for the Republicans, and the Republicans are in control 193 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,559 Speaker 2: of the Senate right now. So that's this expectation that 194 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 2: he will keep the Senate, the Republicans will keep control 195 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 2: of the Senate. But one of the reasons, it's thought 196 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 2: that he's pushing so hard and so fast at the moment, 197 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 2: I mean, the energy levels of this administration will frankly 198 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 2: have surprised me. I didn't think they would be quite 199 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 2: so sort of fast and furious in the early months. 200 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 2: You know, one of the reasons why they might be 201 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,680 Speaker 2: doing that is because they realized that the congressional situation 202 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 2: in Washington won't be as helpful as is now after 203 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 2: the midterms. But yeah, a lot, you know, so much 204 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 2: depends on the economy, and you know the thing about 205 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 2: the tariffs. Yet you know there's a lag effect. They 206 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:48,839 Speaker 2: haven't really a lot of them haven't really come in yet. 207 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 2: I mean, Trump keeps on saying it's sort of foreign 208 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 2: government's paying money into the American exchequer. It's not, it's 209 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 2: it's it's US firms and they're going to start passing 210 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 2: that on to the US consumers in a moment, and 211 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:00,559 Speaker 2: that could really impact his power polarity. 212 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: Exactly. Always a great pleasure, mate, we'll catch up again soon. 213 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 1: Appreciate it as always. Nick Bryant, our old mate from 214 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: across the Tasman these days, of course, author of Well 215 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 1: When America Stopped Being Great? If you haven't read it yet, 216 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: Into the Forever War. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 217 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,359 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, 218 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.