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Speaker 1: Well, they were numbers to take your breath away, weren't they.

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Speaker 1: The US market our times Saturday fell to pieces losses

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Speaker 1: you only see in seismic events. The trouble with time

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Speaker 1: zones of courses. Their Saturday or our Saturday is there Friday,

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Speaker 1: which means that now we have to do something this

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Speaker 1: morning and watch and wait. Craig's Investment Partners Director Market

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Speaker 1: listens with US Mark Morning.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, mate.

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Speaker 1: So you've been around a while. Put it into context.

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Speaker 1: How sort of gob smacked were you?

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Speaker 2: Well, it was pretty interesting to wake up on Saturday

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Speaker 2: and see that the market had fallen another six percent

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Speaker 2: on the Friday session in the US, because we obviously

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Speaker 2: had that really rough Thursday that was actually the biggest

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Speaker 2: daily fall since the COVID period. That came in the

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Speaker 2: wake of the Liberation Day announcements, and then on Friday,

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Speaker 2: I think there was an expectation you might see a

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Speaker 2: more stable session, but then Beijing responded with its own

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Speaker 2: retaliatory tariffs, so then you saw the S and P

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Speaker 2: five hundred and fall another six percent. So in those

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Speaker 2: two days down ten and a half percent. I went

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Speaker 2: back and looked through the last eighty odd years of data.

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Speaker 2: The only other times that's happened is March twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: it happened once, then once in two thousand and eight,

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Speaker 2: right in the middle of the GFC, and then in

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Speaker 2: October nineteen eighty seven obviously Black Monday. So it's pretty

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Speaker 2: rare for things to fall as much as that in

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Speaker 2: a two day period.

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Speaker 1: What would you expect today, given we, all things considered,

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Speaker 1: came out last week pretty well.

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Speaker 2: We came out very well. The New Zealand market was

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Speaker 2: down just half a percent last week, the US down

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Speaker 2: nine percent, Europe down eight and a half percent, the

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Speaker 2: UK down seven percent. That's for the week. We were

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Speaker 2: just down half percent, so we held up very well.

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Speaker 2: We will play some catch up this morning because that

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Speaker 2: nervousness that hit the US market on Friday will filter

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Speaker 2: through to us, but I think we will still hold

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Speaker 2: up better. You know, we're not in the firing line.

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Speaker 2: We don't have those sort of tariffs impacting us directly.

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Speaker 2: We don't have all of those tech stocks, which is

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Speaker 2: really where the weakness is coming from. So our safer,

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Speaker 2: more steadier market I think will it'll fall, but it

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Speaker 2: might hold up a little bit better than some of

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Speaker 2: those international ones.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned China, what did the EU come out tonight ish?

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Speaker 1: Well this week and go where in two with retaliatory.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's when things get worse, and that's when some

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Speaker 2: of this talk of a potential global recession or a

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Speaker 2: US recession, that's when you get that escalation. So right now,

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Speaker 2: I think things are quite finely balanced. If you see

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Speaker 2: if you see negotiations happening behind the scenes, and there

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Speaker 2: was talk of negotiations. Apparently Vietnam, which was one of

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Speaker 2: the hardest hits by tariffs, Vietnam is in negotiations with

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Speaker 2: the US, and so you might see some positive news there.

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Speaker 2: But if you see other countries take the action that

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Speaker 2: China has, then it just becomes tip for tat escalation

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Speaker 2: and that's where things get uglier. So I think the

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Speaker 2: market for the next little while will be very very

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Speaker 2: sensitive to any comment or news flow about whether you're

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Speaker 2: getting more retaliatory action or whether you're seeing some of

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Speaker 2: these politicians come to these censors and try and do deals.

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Speaker 1: Appreciate your expertise as always, Michael. Listen to Craig's Investment

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