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Speaker 1: Congratulations, we've made it to summer. We've made it to

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Speaker 1: the end of the year. Well almost there, almost there.

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Speaker 1: It is the first of December, and the housing market

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Speaker 1: is once again in the driver's seat for the economy,

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Speaker 1: but not heading in the direction that we're used to,

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Speaker 1: is it. Yes, the recovery is underway, but the brutal

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Speaker 1: truth of twenty twenty five I think was summed up

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Speaker 1: rather well by Sir Bill English in an interview about

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Speaker 1: the current state of play. Basically, this protracted downturn, which

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Speaker 1: for anyone living outside Queenstown or living on a dairy

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Speaker 1: farm has felt about as drawn out and depressing as

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Speaker 1: a COVID lockdown, has been made worse by the housing market,

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Speaker 1: not better. It's not firing back into life like it

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Speaker 1: usually would at the stage of the cycle. The wealth

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Speaker 1: effect hasn't kicked in. The recovery is taking longer. In

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Speaker 1: the long run. English argues this is a good thing

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Speaker 1: because supply has been coming on, Planning laws are being changed.

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Speaker 1: You know, we've got intensification coming for the big cities.

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Speaker 1: This should keep prices low or in some cases see

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Speaker 1: them full. Does that make it any easier to stomach? No?

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Speaker 1: Is he right. Probably, if it's happening, this structural shift

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Speaker 1: is going to create headaches for anyone relying on property

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Speaker 1: and a boom in property in order to get rich.

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Speaker 1: Like hmm, I don't know who's relying on property, who's

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Speaker 1: relying on capital gains for money for revenue? Well, hipkins

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Speaker 1: and labor. Of course, they were out at the weekend

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Speaker 1: making it rain with cash, this time on GP clinics

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Speaker 1: who apparently can't get bank loans to start practices which

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Speaker 1: are effectively licenses to print money, like the free GP

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Speaker 1: visits for billionaires and the rest of us. The policy

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Speaker 1: relies on revenue from a capital gains tax. What if

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Speaker 1: those gains don't happen, or they don't happen to the

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Speaker 1: extent that they assume that they will. What if the

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Speaker 1: gains look more of the sort that we've seen over

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Speaker 1: the last few years, i e. Nothing or losses than

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Speaker 1: what what's that old saying about your mouth writing check

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Speaker 1: that your ass can't cash. I think that comes into

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Speaker 1: play here. Without those Golden year capital gains increases, it

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Speaker 1: won't just be the economy feeling their loss, but politicians

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Speaker 1: with big spending agendas also For more from early edition

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Speaker 1: with Ryan Bridge. Listen live to News Talk Set B

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Speaker 1: from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio