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Speaker 1: Right over from Devon Fund's management, Greg Smith. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: Monday Morning, Mike. It's sentiment in the US is souring, isn't.

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Speaker 2: It certainly is.

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Speaker 3: So your consumers getting a bit perturbed about all the

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Speaker 3: stock market volatility and not surprising, and all the uncertainty

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Speaker 3: around tariff. So, yeah, this is a University of Michigan

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Speaker 3: survey from March and they posted ten point five percent

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Speaker 3: to climb from fabriand you're quite a bit below estimates

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Speaker 3: as well. It's twenty seven percent below a year ago,

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Speaker 3: and it's actually the lowest since November twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, consumers is getting a bit worried about what

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Speaker 3: the future holds. You look at the future expectations measure

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Speaker 3: that was down fifteen percent on a monthly basis, and

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Speaker 3: it's thirty percent lower than a year ago. And it's

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Speaker 3: not just it's not just Democrats that are concerned about situations.

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Speaker 3: It was Republicans as well, so their expectations fell ten

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Speaker 3: percent and you're not surprisingly. All this goes with the

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Speaker 3: concerns around a higher inflation environments. The one year inflation

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Speaker 3: outlook that spike to just under five percent. That's the

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Speaker 3: high since Novem twenty twenty two and the five year

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Speaker 3: outlook three point nine percent. They have to go back

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Speaker 3: to February nineteen ninety.

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Speaker 2: Three to get that sort of read.

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Speaker 3: So it does also contradict that data we had last

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Speaker 3: week about the consumer price index sort of being under

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Speaker 3: control and wholesale price is flat, and I suppose.

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Speaker 2: Consumers just they aren't buying.

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Speaker 3: The White Houses claim that tariffs are one off shock,

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Speaker 3: and I suppose it's also goes against what the economic

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Speaker 3: textbooks will tell you. So I mentioned to see what

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Speaker 3: the feed makes of all that they meet this week.

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Speaker 3: They expected to hold and probably will adopt a wait

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Speaker 3: and see approach, and until I suppose all the dust

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Speaker 3: seedles on these trade maneuverings.

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Speaker 1: Okay, and then we come back home with these food

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Speaker 1: prices a month or month looked okay, fruit and vegies

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Speaker 1: are down and all of that sort of stuff. So

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Speaker 1: what do we make into the annual figure? Were worried

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Speaker 1: or not?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? So the annual figure was not so good news.

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Speaker 3: So food prices up two point four percent annually. That

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Speaker 3: followed a two point three percent increase in January. So

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Speaker 3: it's grocery food that was up four point three percent,

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Speaker 3: and particularly dairy milk high Look at bout at the

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Speaker 3: average price of five and a grand block seven bucks

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Speaker 3: steady two in February.

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Speaker 2: That's sixty percent.

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Speaker 3: Higher than this time last year, so it's certainly upsetting things.

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Speaker 3: Free vegies they were lowered down six percent, Kerma, potatoes

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Speaker 3: and onions. As you say, this helped the monthly figures.

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Speaker 3: So prices for food actually foul half percent in Februares

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Speaker 3: that's quite good news, and it was after they rose

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Speaker 3: almost two percent in January. Also, there was some sweet

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Speaker 3: news for chocolate lovers. Mike so Valentine's Day special saw

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Speaker 3: box chocolate prices down twenty six percent in the month.

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Speaker 3: But there was some other interesting reading with some of

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Speaker 3: those other selected price and disease. So good news for travelers.

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Speaker 3: International affairs down five percent in the twelve months, so

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Speaker 3: overall looking pretty good. It feels like we're getting an

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Speaker 3: encouraging picture for inflation, although tariffs do have the potential

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Speaker 3: supposed to upset the apple cart as it were.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, but what about a two?

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Speaker 3: What about a two up seven percent on Friday, So

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Speaker 3: it wasn't a company's specific announcement. It's more about what's

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Speaker 3: happening in China, their main market. Basically, government agencies are

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Speaker 3: trying to get the birth rate going again now that

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Speaker 3: has really struggled in recent years over there, despite the

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Speaker 3: one child policy in twenty fifteen. Then they've got the

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Speaker 3: two child policy in twenty sixteen, but actually, yeah, we

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Speaker 3: started going the other way so consumed living.

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Speaker 2: Costs, career priorities.

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Speaker 3: Cut the pandemic copasy didn't help and actually saw China

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Speaker 3: its first population for in decades back in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, officials are trying to get things going. To

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Speaker 3: the inner Mongolian.

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Speaker 2: Capital of Hohot that's offering up to one.

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Speaker 3: Hundred thousand and one for families to have a third child,

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Speaker 3: it's around about twenty four thousand kiwek, so it's not

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Speaker 3: small beer there or fifty thousand for those having a

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Speaker 3: second and some cities that have introduced measures already.

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Speaker 2: Having some success.

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Speaker 3: Tianaman that's seen increased newborns by seventeen percent over the

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Speaker 3: past year since they've introduced policies, so this is good

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Speaker 3: news for infant milk demand with more babies. At has

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Speaker 3: actually been doing quite well in China anyway, despite a

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Speaker 3: shrinking infant milk market. They've been able to position themselves

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Speaker 3: as a premium brand that's benefited the financials. We saw

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Speaker 3: them to clear its first dividend recently and also showing

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Speaker 3: up in the price charts.

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Speaker 2: She is now almost fifty percent year to day. I

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Speaker 2: like him.

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Speaker 1: What are the numbers?

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Speaker 3: So numbers actually were something to like on Friday as well,

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Speaker 3: so amidst all the volatility last week, so the Dow

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Speaker 3: up one point seven percent, s and P five hundred

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Speaker 3: up two point one percent, NASDAC up two point six percent,

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Speaker 3: for one hundred up one point one percent. Ozzie was

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Speaker 3: up half percent. So it was the exitics fifty twelve

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Speaker 3: to two sixty six Kmmoddie's goal down five bucks, twenty

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Speaker 3: nine hundred and eighty four, Oil up sixty three cents

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Speaker 3: sixty seven spot eighteen. Currencies Kilby also flying high fifty

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Speaker 3: seven point five against the US that was at point

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Speaker 3: nine percent, Australian dollar ninety point nine high, British pound

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Speaker 3: forty four point five were high by one percent there

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Speaker 3: as well, and against the end up one and a

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Speaker 3: half percent eighty five point five this week. No doubt

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Speaker 3: we've got the ongoing developments around tariffs. But we've got

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Speaker 3: happy results in Fonterra speaking dairy the warehouse, with some

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Speaker 3: manufacturing and service started, We're gonna have a dairy auction.

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Speaker 3: And are we still in recession? We've got fourth quarter

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Speaker 3: GDP numbers just off shore. We've got Niken FedEx, we've

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Speaker 3: got trying to retail sales, U retail sales.

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Speaker 2: Building permits and Mike.

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Speaker 3: A big week for central banks, Bank of Japan, Bank

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Speaker 3: of England and of course the feed What will they

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Speaker 3: say about all these tariff deviolances?

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Speaker 1: So fantastic? All right, catch up soon. I appreciate a

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Speaker 1: very much. Greg guest Smith Different Funds Management.

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