1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,600 Speaker 1: And let's get on to the most important stuff of 2 00:00:01,600 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: the day. After America's attack on Iran over the weekend, 3 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:06,559 Speaker 1: the big question now is whether Iran will close the 4 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 1: Strait of Homos. Now twenty percent of the woods world's 5 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: oil is shipped through this narrow strait. It runs between 6 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: the coasts of Iran and Orman. Stephen Hoadley is a 7 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: retired professor of international relations and with us right now, Hey, Stephen, 8 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: good evening, Heather, Stephen, thank you for joining us. This 9 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: is not going to happen, is it now? 10 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,159 Speaker 2: Well, it may happen. It's all option, and even just 11 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: the threat of closing it would be enough to send 12 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 2: insurance rates higher to prevent other ships from entering. Apparently, 13 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 2: the number of ships in the Gulf has declined from 14 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 2: seven hundred and fifty to seven hundred and continuing to fall. 15 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 2: There is a lot of ships, A lot of companies 16 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 2: are simply not putting their ships into danger because they 17 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 2: anticipate the possibility of the closure of the street. 18 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: How would they actually close. 19 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: It with military action? They with minds in the water. 20 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 2: The channels are only six kilometers wide, three kilometers one 21 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: way and three kilometers coming the other way. They've got 22 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 2: fast patrol boats armed with rough propelled grenades. They've got 23 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 2: short range artillery, they've short range missiles, the variety of 24 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 2: things that could harass. Remember, an oil tanker is very vulnerable. 25 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: They're not armored, they're not armed. They could not withstand 26 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:31,279 Speaker 2: even a small piece of artillery and they might burst 27 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 2: into flames. So those ships, skippers are going to stand back, 28 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 2: they're going to anchor out, they're going to stay away 29 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: from harm's way. That will be enough to send up 30 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 2: the price of oil. 31 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: I see that Marco Rubio has gone on Fox today 32 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: and called on China to intervene here and have a 33 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: chat to Iran and stop this from happening. Would that work? 34 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: Do you suspict that? 35 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 2: Well, China's oil does come out of the Strait from Iran, 36 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: it's smuggled. Iran is under strict sanction from the West, 37 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: but of course they ignore those sanctions. China does too, 38 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 2: and gets oil from Russia in the same way. But yeah, 39 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 2: it would be interesting to strange bedfellows, the United States 40 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,959 Speaker 2: and China ganging up on Iran to say, don't close 41 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 2: the straits or moose the Chinese. I think do have 42 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 2: a strong point. I think they may prevail, and it 43 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 2: could be that the Iranians will be very selective in 44 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 2: their targeting. If they do in fact target any ships, 45 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 2: they can identify them one by one. They can target 46 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 2: them if they're related to the United States or to Israel, 47 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 2: and let the Chinese ships get a free pass through 48 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: the Straits. 49 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: Stephen, You've been doing this for a very long time, 50 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: so I want you to take on it. Did the 51 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 1: Americans make a mistake bombing those sites? 52 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 2: Well, look, we're divided, The Prime minister is divided, the 53 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,679 Speaker 2: Foreign minister is divided. Everyone is trying to be very 54 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 2: kind to Donald Trump. We don't want nuclear weapon, so 55 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 2: we approved in that respect. We don't want to invade 56 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 2: other people's countries, so we disapproved in that respect. I 57 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 2: think the world, I think New Zealanders are pretty divided 58 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 2: on the whole question. So it's not an easy call. 59 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: If it turns to custard the way the Iraq invasion 60 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 2: did in two thousand and three and the Afghan invasion did, 61 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 2: we will look back and say it was a terrible mistake. If, however, 62 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 2: there is a regime change and the government, like Syrian 63 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 2: government next door, suddenly becomes pro West and moderate will say, well, 64 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,839 Speaker 2: it wasn't a mistake. It was jolly good to put 65 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 2: down the Iranians and relieve this dark shadow that's lafted 66 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 2: over the Middle East since nineteen seventy nine, and you know, 67 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: give Israel a break. 68 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: Stephen, thank you very much for you take on everything. 69 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: I really appreciate your expertise that Stephen Hardley, retired professor. 70 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplessy, Allen Drive, listen live and 71 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: You've Talked. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 72 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.