1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:00,800 Speaker 1: Good afternoon. 2 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:03,520 Speaker 2: Today is exactly one year on from the election, and 3 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:05,400 Speaker 2: a poll shows that we're split on whether the country 4 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 2: is better or worse off. The latest One News variant 5 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 2: pole shows forty percent of us think the country's in 6 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,240 Speaker 2: worse shape than it was before the election, thirty percent 7 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: think it's better, and twenty six percent says say that 8 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 2: there's no difference. Political commentator and former MPP had Donner 9 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 2: is with me. Now, hey, Piter, Hi he Now, Peter, 10 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 2: are you reading this as a realistic assessment of the 11 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 2: shape of the country, the shape that the country is in, 12 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 2: it's obviously got worse than the last year, or do 13 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: you see this as a reflection of how people perceive 14 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 2: the government's performance. 15 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 3: Well, I'd go slightly for the former, although it's a 16 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 3: little bit of both. I think there are two factors 17 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 3: at play here. It's probably an accurate assessment of how 18 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 3: people feel, but it's not necessarily an accurate assessment of 19 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 3: how they would vote in an election. If you look 20 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 3: at all of the polls and average them out over 21 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 3: the last year, the coalition still retains about US six 22 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 3: to eight percent lead over the opposition, which would be 23 00:00:58,000 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 3: enough to see it back in government with a reasonab 24 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 3: big dad majority. So I think there's a little bit 25 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 3: of both at play here. People are not unhappy, wanting 26 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 3: to see better, but don't really want to make a 27 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 3: change at this point. 28 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: Given how grumpy we got with the last lot, Jacinda 29 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: and Chippy L I'm surprised that the coalition government isn't 30 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: polling much higher, are you. 31 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 3: No, Because I think what's happened is that there was 32 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 3: a climate of expectation after the last government. This government's 33 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 3: come in said there are a lot of problems we've 34 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 3: got to resolve. There's going to be paying the short 35 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 3: term before we get any long term game. Well, I 36 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 3: know we've heard that over many years and many governments, 37 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 3: and I think what people are doing is working their 38 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 3: way through that. So I don't think they're giving them 39 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 3: the high credit that the government right feel it deserves. 40 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 3: I think also you've got to remember that when National 41 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 3: came in, it came in with thirty eight percent of 42 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 3: the votement. That's the lowest of an incoming government for 43 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 3: a long time. So there's not a great reservoir of 44 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 3: support there for them. The fact that they're still polling 45 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 3: thirty six thirty seven percent shows that they've managed to 46 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 3: retain most of their support. But the big message moving 47 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 3: forward is they've got to grow that vote significantly to 48 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 3: win the next election. 49 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: How do you think they're going in terms of what 50 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: they're actually doing. 51 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 3: Oh, they would tick off most of the policy achievements. 52 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 3: I think the quarterly the quarterly reports have been a 53 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 3: good way of measuring that they've made some tough choices, 54 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 3: They've implemented policies. I think the coalition has worked cohesively. 55 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 3: None of that, of course, necessarily rates into popular support. 56 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 3: But the government is doing what it said it was 57 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 3: going to do. And I note Christopher Luxon's comments last 58 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 3: week that he doesn't care about the polls. He says, 59 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 3: I just want to deliver for New Zealanders and the 60 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 3: key is my jobs to demonstrate in twenty twenty six 61 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 3: that the country's in better hands, in a better place. 62 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 3: That's his challenge. 63 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: Peter, always love having you on the show. Thank you 64 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: so much, Peter, done, political commentator. For more from Hither 65 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 1: Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to news talks it'd be 66 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.