Speaker 1: Kilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is a bonus episode
Speaker 1: of The Front Page, a daily podcast presented by The
Speaker 1: New Zealand Herald. Joe Biden is stepping down from the
Speaker 1: US presidential election race. He says his decision to stand
Speaker 1: down is in the best interest of his party and
Speaker 1: the country. Biden has endorsed Kamala Harris, the current Vice President,
Speaker 1: to be the new Democratic candidate, along with a string
Speaker 1: of other key Democrats. It comes just four months before
Speaker 1: Americans go to the polls. Today, on the Front Page,
Speaker 1: geopolitical analyst at the Democracy Project Jeffrey Miller is with
Speaker 1: us to explain what happens next. What do you make
Speaker 1: of biden decision to step down? Is this, as he said,
Speaker 1: in the best interest?
Speaker 2: Look, it was a surprise, and yet not a surprise.
Speaker 2: The last three weeks have been dominated by all kinds
Speaker 2: of chatter about Joe Biden, whether he would continue. It
Speaker 2: all started with that disastrous debate on the twenty seventh
Speaker 2: of June, and it didn't really get any better after that.
Speaker 2: Biden gave all kinds of one on one interviews that
Speaker 2: were designed to kind of shore up his position, but
Speaker 2: they only made things worse, and he continued to make
Speaker 2: gaff after gaff, the most significant of which was probably
Speaker 2: when he described the lot of Mezelenski as the president
Speaker 2: of Russia. So it really didn't get better. In the
Speaker 2: midst of that, of course, you had the assassination on
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, and then the Republican National Convention last week,
Speaker 2: at which the Republicans look incredibly unified with their new
Speaker 2: vice presidential candidate jd Vance And in the end Biden's
Speaker 2: position became untenable. He got COVID and he regrouped with
Speaker 2: family and made that final decision to out of the race.
Speaker 2: In some ways, yes, you can give Joe Biden credit
Speaker 2: for doing this, and I've seen various descriptions. I think
Speaker 2: Barack Obama described him as a patriot of the highest order.
Speaker 2: And yet it's all very very late, And this could
Speaker 2: have been done a year ago. If it had been
Speaker 2: done a year ago and Biden had made his decision,
Speaker 2: then I'm not going to stand for a second term.
Speaker 2: It would have been I think it would have been
Speaker 2: a courageous decision, and it would have given others in
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party a chance against Carmala Harris. As it
Speaker 2: stands now, it's being done what three months out from
Speaker 2: the election or thereabouts, and it really leaves most challenges
Speaker 2: with really little hope. So essentially we're going to see
Speaker 2: a crown and a coronation of Carmala Harris. I don't
Speaker 2: think that's particularly democratic or small de democratic, as the
Speaker 2: Americans say, and I think you can blame some of
Speaker 2: the blame for that at Biden and his advisors, but
Speaker 2: also at the Democratic Party. I mean, they went through
Speaker 2: a primary process last year and rubber stamped Joe Biden's candidacy,
Speaker 2: and yet it was clear that Biden was aging, it
Speaker 2: was having difficulties. It's been clear for the last year
Speaker 2: or more. There've been all kinds of videos circulating showing
Speaker 2: Joe Biden and some of his gaffes. These are not new.
Speaker 2: While it may have come into sharper focus with this debate,
Speaker 2: this talk has been around for a very long time,
Speaker 2: and it's been dismissed often by Democratic operatives as you know,
Speaker 2: conspiracy theories and this is just right wing attempts to
Speaker 2: undermine Joe Biden. But actually there was some real substance
Speaker 2: to that, and that all became apparent on that debate stage.
Speaker 2: What three weeks ago, making sure that we're able to
Speaker 2: make every single solitary person.
Speaker 1: Eligible for what I've been able to do with the
Speaker 1: with the covid ice could be with dealing with everything
Speaker 1: we have to do with Look, if we finally beat Medicare. Yeah,
Speaker 1: well it's taken about a month, hey for him to
Speaker 1: resign since that disastrous debate, and the calls urging him
Speaker 1: to pull out only grew over the last week since
Speaker 1: Trump's assassination attempt. It's interesting watching this unfold from the
Speaker 1: other side of the world, hey, where it's perhaps not
Speaker 1: uncommon for party leaders to face calls to go. How
Speaker 1: has the US handled that debate?
Speaker 2: Well, look, it's so late. As I said, the fact
Speaker 2: is that Joe Biden was rubber stamped as the candidate,
Speaker 2: so it was ready then up to him whether to withdraw.
Speaker 2: In the end, he could have continued, and we were
Speaker 2: told as late as Saturday that he was absolutely committed
Speaker 2: to staying in the race and was going to be
Speaker 2: out campaigning this week. So in the end, perhaps Biden's
Speaker 2: hand was forced to a degree, But there is no
Speaker 2: real mechanism once you're the nominee. That is the process.
Speaker 2: He got through that primary process and was agreed upon
Speaker 2: as the Democratic nominee for presidents. So in the New
Speaker 2: Zealand context, it's a bit different, isn't it, Because it's
Speaker 2: a parliamentary system here. We don't have a president, so
Speaker 2: it is a different process. And of course the comparisons
Speaker 2: that come to mind Jisindhdurn resigning as Prime Minister and
Speaker 2: the Labor Party leader last year and paving the way
Speaker 2: for Chris Hipkins. I guess you could look back to
Speaker 2: Andrew Little making way for Cisinderadun a couple of months
Speaker 2: before the election in twenty seventeen is another comparison point.
Speaker 2: But in the end, I guess the comparisons always fall
Speaker 2: down in the end. It's a very very different system.
Speaker 2: Different quantities of money, certainly in the American system is
Speaker 2: just one big difference. And there's a huge war chest
Speaker 2: now behind Carmala Harris, and that will be one of
Speaker 2: the things that gives her just a huge advantage of
Speaker 2: any other challenges. She has essentially inherits the Biden Harris
Speaker 2: campaign war chest. There have been some filings already on that,
Speaker 2: so she will inherit all the donations that have been
Speaker 2: made to the Biden Harris campaign and money does mean
Speaker 2: an awful lot in US politics.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has come out and said that Harris will
Speaker 1: be easier to beat than Biden. What do you think
Speaker 1: of that match up but the lawyer versus the felon
Speaker 1: I guess.
Speaker 2: Look, I don't know. I think Karmala Harris will be fine.
Speaker 2: I think she'll be a lot better than a lot
Speaker 2: of her critics. It will be expecting. At the same time,
Speaker 2: even the most stellar candidate on Earth would struggle at
Speaker 2: this point, taking over three in months before the election
Speaker 2: and suddenly having to go up against the Trump machine.
Speaker 2: The Republicans are completely unified between Donald Trump and JD. Vance,
Speaker 2: the vice presidential candidate. They had a very successful convention
Speaker 2: last week. There's a lot of sympathy out there. I
Speaker 2: guess for Donald Trump after that assassination attempt against him,
Speaker 2: it's going to be hard. As I say, even the
Speaker 2: most stellar candidate on Earth would struggle against that. So
Speaker 2: there will be a huge mountain to climb for Karmala Harris.
Speaker 2: I think that's who it will be in the end.
Speaker 2: I think the Democratic machine, the Democratic establishment, is getting
Speaker 2: behind Carmala Harris. You're seeing these as from the likes
Speaker 2: of Joe Biden himself, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi are the
Speaker 2: top Democrats, so I don't think there are many others
Speaker 2: with a chance. So she's going to have all the
Speaker 2: backing from the Democratic establishment. That will certainly help to
Speaker 2: a degree. And yet it's also going to be easy
Speaker 2: for others like Trump to claim while it's been a
Speaker 2: stitch up, because in many ways it has, it hasn't
Speaker 2: been really a fair primary on the Democratic side. So
Speaker 2: we wait and see how Kamala Harris managers. No doubt
Speaker 2: she'll be going up against Donald Trump and that debate
Speaker 2: in September. There's a second TV debate scheduled, and it
Speaker 2: won't be Joe Biden now, but it will be an
Speaker 2: all likelihood Kamala Harris against Donald Trump. While I may
Speaker 2: be the first woman in this office, I will not
Speaker 2: be the last.
Speaker 1: Do you think America is actually ready though, to vote
Speaker 1: for a black South Asian female president when they didn't
Speaker 1: want to pick Hillary Clinton.
Speaker 2: Look, these discussions have been had before. If you recall
Speaker 2: back to Barack Obama in two thousand and eight, there's
Speaker 2: an awful lot of inks built and discussions had over
Speaker 2: whether America was ready for their first black president. I
Speaker 2: think perhaps actually Americans are a bit more mature than
Speaker 2: we sometimes give them credit for. And I think Karmala
Speaker 2: Harris will be fine. I think she will be probably
Speaker 2: a worthy challenger to Donald Trump. But Donald Trump has
Speaker 2: got a huge machine behind him. And unity is just
Speaker 2: so powerful in politics, whether it is in New Zealand
Speaker 2: or in the United States, and the Republicans are just
Speaker 2: so unified now. There is a never Trump wing to
Speaker 2: the party, but it's very small now compared with say
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen or during the Trump presidency. The Trump machine
Speaker 2: has just been very successful. And Trump, despite all of
Speaker 2: his criminal trials and tribulations, he's more popular than ever.
Speaker 2: So He's gone through an assassination attempt and is still
Speaker 2: standing and is more popular than ever. It's going to
Speaker 2: take a lot, an awful lot, to defeat that. But
Speaker 2: I don't think in the end Kamala Harris's ethnicity, gender
Speaker 2: will really pay much of a role in that. We
Speaker 2: wait and see. I mean, an awful lot can happen,
Speaker 2: and the predictions are a very dangerous thing to make.
Speaker 2: If we've been recording this interview a month ago, Goodness meet,
Speaker 2: how different things would look and three and a half months,
Speaker 2: a lot can happen still in this race.
Speaker 1: Could people vote for Harris simply because she isn't Trump
Speaker 1: or Biden.
Speaker 2: I think that will be very much the strategy. Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris used the line that she was the anti Trump
Speaker 2: in her campaign adds back in twenty twenty when she
Speaker 2: was in the presidential race or trying to get the
Speaker 2: Democratic nomination, and you know, that's probably the best card
Speaker 2: she has to try and convince people to vote for
Speaker 2: her both because of who she is. I think there
Speaker 2: will be plenty of Democrats who do genuinely like her,
Speaker 2: and plenty of voters who do genuinely like her and
Speaker 2: appreciate her. But then there will be plenty of others
Speaker 2: who in the end vote for her because she's not Trump.
Speaker 2: And that's I guess a valid strategy as well. No
Speaker 2: doubt there will be all kinds of scare campaigns and
Speaker 2: tactics used by the Democrats to reach that goal. You know,
Speaker 2: in the end, it's a simple numbers game, and it's
Speaker 2: all about appealing to the swing voters. And around about
Speaker 2: ten states in the United States which are the swing states,
Speaker 2: that's you know, the likes of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and
Speaker 2: in the end, those voters that hold all the cards
Speaker 2: here in the American system. So whatever appeals to those
Speaker 2: swing state voters, I think those will be the strategies
Speaker 2: that are employed by the Democratic campaign.
Speaker 1: Just lastly, Jeffrey, Logistically, what happens next.
Speaker 2: Look, there are a lot of arcane rules and procedures
Speaker 2: from the Democratic National Committee, and I wouldn't pretend to
Speaker 2: know all the ins and outs of it all. But
Speaker 2: there was some talk before Biden made his decision that
Speaker 2: there would be a virtual confirmation of his candidacy before
Speaker 2: the Democratic National Convenent, which is scheduled to be held
Speaker 2: in Chicago in a month's time, so it could have
Speaker 2: been in early August. We wait and see. That could
Speaker 2: still happen in Karmala Harris is rubber stamped. But in
Speaker 2: the end there's a process to go through, and around
Speaker 2: three nine hundred delegates who have pledged to support Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: in all likelihood they're going to be backing Kamala Harris now,
Speaker 2: so that's why largely it's going to be a foregone
Speaker 2: conclusion in my view. But yes, formally there's a convention,
Speaker 2: a party conference if you like, in Chicago from the
Speaker 2: nineteenth to twenty second of August. In theory, it could
Speaker 2: go to what's called an open convention where the delegates
Speaker 2: can choose whatever candidate they find best on the day
Speaker 2: and practice. I think it's going to be a coronation
Speaker 2: for Karmala Harris, and it will be signed up well
Speaker 2: before then. And simply time is not on the Democrat side.
Speaker 2: They're already incredibly late working out their candidate. I doubt
Speaker 2: very much they're going to still be working out who's
Speaker 2: going to be their candidate in a month's time. I
Speaker 2: think it will all be sealed and there will be
Speaker 2: a bit convention that was all about crowning Krmala Harris
Speaker 2: as the nominee.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Jeffrey. That said, for this episode
Speaker 1: of The Front Page, you can read more about today's
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Speaker 1: with sound engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to
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