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Speaker 1: Cards. Spending data from November suggest kiwis are holding their

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Speaker 1: cards close to their chests literally. Kiwibank says the value

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Speaker 1: of spending drop two and a half percent in November.

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Speaker 1: That's down. A and Z says its data shows a

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Speaker 1: drop of one point two percent year on year two.

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Speaker 1: Brad Olsen, the Infametric principal economist, is with us tonight. Hey, Brad,

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Speaker 1: good evening November was still pretty tough.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's quite clear for a lot of

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Speaker 2: retailers that of course, although interest rates have started to

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Speaker 2: come down, not everyone's immediately refixed onto those lower rates,

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Speaker 2: and so that pressure on household budgets is still pretty clear.

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Speaker 2: Although a lot of the numbers are showing as still

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Speaker 2: an annual decline year on year, there are some early

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Speaker 2: signs in the numbers, both looking at what A and

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Speaker 2: Z's put out, but also some numbers recently from Worldline

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Speaker 2: that suggest that going into that Christmas period though there's

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a shift coming through. So down

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Speaker 2: on a year ago, but perhaps up a little bit

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Speaker 2: on where we've been the last couple of months. For example,

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Speaker 2: the Worldline data suggests it as we're starting to get

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Speaker 2: into the Christmas preace. There has actually been a lift

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Speaker 2: in spending compared to last year for the first week

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Speaker 2: I think it was for Christmas A and Z again

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Speaker 2: suggesting that when you look at some of that spending

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Speaker 2: month on month, again a very slight lift. It's not huge,

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Speaker 2: it's not you know, the economy and spending really starting

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Speaker 2: to get going. But it's a bit of a change.

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Speaker 1: So maybe we've just left around a little bit later

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Speaker 1: hopefully this year. That's what it's indicating.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think as well. You've got a lot of

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Speaker 2: households that you know, there is a bit more confidence

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Speaker 2: that has come through the last couple of months. People

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Speaker 2: can see that light at the end of the tunnel,

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Speaker 2: they can see better things around the corner. They're still cautious,

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Speaker 2: you know, people aren't breaking out the champagne bottles yet,

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Speaker 2: but there's just a little bit of a shift in

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Speaker 2: terms of people's sentiment, their expectations. Maybe a little bit

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Speaker 2: more that goes into the present budget. Not a lot,

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Speaker 2: you're not sort of, you know, doubling up who you're

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Speaker 2: buying for and giving everyone three presents this year, but

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Speaker 2: maybe a little bit of a shift in the budget.

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Speaker 1: What about the job numbers we got out today had

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Speaker 1: they look brad job.

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Speaker 2: Numbers, and the labor markets still quite challenging. To be fair,

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Speaker 2: the start is only up until September, and we've seen

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Speaker 2: again that sort of continued drop as we've been seeing

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Speaker 2: from a number of other indicators coming through. Stats n

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Speaker 2: Z reporting that for the September twenty twenty four quarter,

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Speaker 2: six thousand, seven hundred odd fewer jobs than in June.

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Speaker 2: Once you take into account seasonality, the biggest drops occurring

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Speaker 2: in the likes of construction, accommodation and food services and

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Speaker 2: admin role. So still quite tough out there, and in

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Speaker 2: particular you're seeing some sort of big drops in different

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Speaker 2: parts of the country. Auckland down nearly seven thousand roles

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Speaker 2: compared to where we were midyear, so all of that

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Speaker 2: is dropping away. Interestingly, although we normally in economic downturns

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Speaker 2: see that the likes of women often suffer greater levels

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Speaker 2: of unemployment, actually this time with a much higher construction

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Speaker 2: drop off, that's been affecting more males and seeing that

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Speaker 2: group dropping out of work a bit more so. Overall,

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Speaker 2: labor markets still tough, but maybe some early changes coming

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Speaker 2: through in the spending likely not immediately but likely into

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five to support a bit of a shift

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Speaker 2: around in jobs. But we know the jobs market always

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Speaker 2: takes a bit longer to shift.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and we've still got I mean that the unemployment

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Speaker 1: numbers for next year aren't looking to Rosie ave for

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Speaker 1: us here heading it, I think topping at five and

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Speaker 1: a half percent by the middle of next year, right.

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Speaker 2: Well, and that's the thing. I mean that the four

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Speaker 2: cars sort of range from about two point five sorry,

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Speaker 2: five point two through to five point five. You're right,

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Speaker 2: But regardless, that's still a lot of people who are

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Speaker 2: obviously finding it more difficult. We've also seen this year

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Speaker 2: more people dropping out of the jobs market sort of entirely.

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Speaker 2: They're not even becoming unemployed, they're becoming so disenfranchised they're

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Speaker 2: not even looking for jobs at the moment. They're not

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Speaker 2: keen to get them because they can sort of see

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Speaker 2: how difficult it is out their job adds. You know,

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Speaker 2: new positions being advertised now down at like twenty thirteen

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Speaker 2: levels and many more people applying, so a lot of

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Speaker 2: competition out there, and of course that's incredibly difficult.

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Speaker 1: It certainly is, Brad, Thank you very much for that

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Speaker 1: great to have you on the show. Brad Olsen, Infametrix

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Speaker 1: principal economists.

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