1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,480
Speaker 1: Not good news. I'm afraid for New Zealand. Inc our

2
00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:05,560
Speaker 1: influences and nations on the decline comes from the Lowe Institute.

3
00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:07,480
Speaker 1: They're out of Australia. Of course, they release their annual

4
00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:10,200
Speaker 1: Asia Power Index. We're one of only three countries to

5
00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,800
Speaker 1: go backwards. The other two are Russia and Me and

6
00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:16,079
Speaker 1: mass who are an excellent company. A traceable drop in

7
00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,079
Speaker 1: diplomacy since twenty eighteen. I wonder who that would have

8
00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,840
Speaker 1: been traceable drop in diplomacy twenty eighteen. Who was running

9
00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,919
Speaker 1: the place. Lowe Institute Southeast Asia Program director of Susanna

10
00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:29,080
Speaker 1: Patents with US Susanna, good morning, Good morning. So China

11
00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:32,040
Speaker 1: beats out the Americans and the Asia Pacific militarily for

12
00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,559
Speaker 1: the first time. How are these things actually measured?

13
00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,960
Speaker 2: So we have more than one hundred and thirty indicators

14
00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:42,760
Speaker 2: that go into our index. So in terms of military capability,

15
00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,280
Speaker 2: for example, we're looking at both the size of the

16
00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:50,479
Speaker 2: armed forces, the equipment inventories, and then also measures that

17
00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,720
Speaker 2: we take from an expert survey where we ask people, Okay,

18
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,400
Speaker 2: so a country has this many tanks, but how well

19
00:00:56,400 --> 00:01:00,440
Speaker 2: prepared are they actually to go to war? So that's

20
00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:02,840
Speaker 2: one measure, and then we also look at a whole

21
00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,600
Speaker 2: range of other things including the size of the economy,

22
00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,040
Speaker 2: economic relationships, and diplomacy.

23
00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,399
Speaker 1: Okay, when we look at the top five countries, the States, China, India, Japan,

24
00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,000
Speaker 1: and Australia. Is Australia helped by August.

25
00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,559
Speaker 2: Not yet actually, because August hasn't really delivered much yet,

26
00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,840
Speaker 2: so that's yet to show through in our data. Definitely,

27
00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:29,000
Speaker 2: participation in the alliance network and defense networks is a

28
00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,920
Speaker 2: phenomenon that we've seen over the last five years that

29
00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,360
Speaker 2: the US has been doing a lot more, especially with Japan,

30
00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,800
Speaker 2: actually even more so than with Australia. So we see

31
00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,679
Speaker 2: that in the data that we collect about for example,

32
00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 2: combined military exercises and.

33
00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,520
Speaker 1: Is Japan seen as increasingly proactive in the region.

34
00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 2: Yes, So Japan is really interesting because overall, actually we

35
00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,480
Speaker 2: would say that Japan is in relative decline because it

36
00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,639
Speaker 2: has an aging society. But we do see that Japan

37
00:01:57,760 --> 00:01:59,840
Speaker 2: is playing a much more active role when it comes

38
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:05,440
Speaker 2: to defense and security relationships, especially with countries in Southeast Asia.

39
00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,280
Speaker 1: Take out the military aspect of China, are they waning

40
00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:09,360
Speaker 1: or increasing?

41
00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,919
Speaker 2: We describe China's power as plateauing, and that's what we've

42
00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:17,160
Speaker 2: seen over the last five years. But the US still

43
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,919
Speaker 2: remains ahead of China. And I think many people would

44
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,840
Speaker 2: have expected that year on year China would be making steady,

45
00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:27,440
Speaker 2: steady gains to overtake the US, but actually that hasn't happened,

46
00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:30,520
Speaker 2: and the US remains about ten percent more powerful than China.

47
00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,519
Speaker 2: And that's due to a few different factors, including the

48
00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,480
Speaker 2: fact that the US economy is pretty strong, whereas China

49
00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 2: faces a lot of long term challenges there.

50
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,000
Speaker 1: Greater insights isn't appreciated very much. Suzanne petn Out of

51
00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,800
Speaker 1: the Low Institute up early for US in Australia this morning.

52
00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:48,200
Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

53
00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,360
Speaker 1: news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow

54
00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:52,920
Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.