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Speaker 1: Well, today is today the unemployment figures come out and

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Speaker 1: they're not looking flash. To be fair, the economist are

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Speaker 1: picking a nine year high of five point three percent

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Speaker 1: for the September quarter. The worst is twenty sixteen. Here

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Speaker 1: some good news, though it could give therbns hed an

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Speaker 1: excuse to cut rates again, not that they need an excuse.

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Speaker 1: Mike Jones is the beigin Zi's chief economist and joins us. Now, hell,

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Speaker 1: I mate, come on, what's your back?

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Speaker 2: Well with the conspus there at five point three percent,

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Speaker 2: so a bit of a nudge up.

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Speaker 1: Is this the worst of it? Or is there more

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Speaker 1: to come? Or will it rebound from here? All wee

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Speaker 1: at bottom.

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Speaker 2: We think we're getting close to the to the top

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Speaker 2: for the unemployment rate cycle. I mean we have another

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Speaker 2: five brillion forecast the next quarter and then things starting

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Speaker 2: to improve from next year. So look, there's still a

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Speaker 2: ways to go. It's a little bit of a slog

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Speaker 2: ahead of us. But I think importably we are starting

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Speaker 2: to see a few more encouraging signs out there, whether

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Speaker 2: it's job ads starting to lift or employers telling us

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Speaker 2: in business surveys that they expect to increase employment over

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Speaker 2: the year ahead.

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Speaker 1: They are less use participating in our workforce. And tell

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Speaker 1: me about that, and how does it impact on the numbers?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly we've seen youth employment bear the brunt of

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Speaker 2: us adjustment. Really. I mean, we saw obviously back for

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Speaker 2: years now in COVID, youth unemployment dropped quite noticeably and

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Speaker 2: youth workers were pulled into the labor force given those

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Speaker 2: really strong conditions at the time. And what was seen

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Speaker 2: in the last kind of year or eighteen months is

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Speaker 2: almost the reverse of that, with a lot of those

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Speaker 2: youth workers leaving the labor force or maybe going back

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Speaker 2: to study and training and so forth. And that's what

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Speaker 2: we typically see in an unemployment cycle, but probably a

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Speaker 2: little bit more than usual in this one.

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Speaker 1: And do you think these figures will help push along

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Speaker 1: the RB to doing more cuts.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's right, there's the facts already got a five

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Speaker 2: point three percent in its numbers, so you get that

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Speaker 2: result today. It shouldn't rush too many feathers down at

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Speaker 2: the bank, and it does play to the grain of

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Speaker 2: the economy needing a little bit more help. So another

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Speaker 2: twenty five point cut later this month, that's in our forecast,

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Speaker 2: and we suspect that it may well be the last.

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Speaker 1: Well, one would hope. So it's interesting how you say

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Speaker 1: we're at the top of the cycle, whereas I prefer

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Speaker 1: to say we're at the bottom of the cycle, because

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Speaker 1: nobody likes unemployment. To be fair, Mike, enjoy your job

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Speaker 1: today and thank you so much for waking up early

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Speaker 1: to us. That is Mike Jones, bigin zi's chief economist.

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Speaker 2: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live

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Speaker 2: to News Talks it Be from five am weekdays, or

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