1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,000 Speaker 1: Another wake up call for New Zealand in because these 2 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: latest net migration figures show, yes, the population is still growing, 3 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: but barely ten thousand, six hundred in the year to 4 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:10,880 Speaker 1: August forty seven, nine hundred has left the country. Paul 5 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: Spoonley's the emeritus professor, a Messi University of sociologist. 6 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: Back with It's Paul Morning, Good morning, Mike. 7 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 1: The net zero question. I always ask you when you're 8 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: on this program, do you reckon we'll be a net 9 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,080 Speaker 1: exporter of people? What do you reckon now? 10 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 2: I reckon we will be. When I last came on 11 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: your show, Mike, which is five or six months ago, 12 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: I thought we'd bottomed out. We haven't bottomed out at all, 13 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 2: and we're heading towards net losses a net migration game. 14 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: I think we lasted it during the global financial crisis 15 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 2: twenty eleven twenty twelve, it went down to minus ten 16 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 2: thousand overall net loss and we're certainly hitting in that 17 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 2: direction again. 18 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: What worries you more the number of people leaving, all 19 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: the lack of people arriving. 20 00:00:55,960 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 2: The people leaving at the moment people don't arrive during 21 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 2: an economic downturn. When we look back again, at the 22 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 2: global financial crisis, New Zealand wasn't an attractive place for migrants, 23 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 2: so the numbers drop. As soon as we came out, 24 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 2: numbers went up again, and they went up significantly. So 25 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 2: I'm anticipating that when we get out those numbers will 26 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 2: go up again. But the numbers leaving, there are two 27 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 2: bits to that. One is that the numbers are very high, 28 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 2: they're the highest we've ever seen it in our history, 29 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,279 Speaker 2: and the net loss. But we're also seeing a growing 30 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 2: number of people who are New Zealand citizens but not 31 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 2: born here her leaving, so we're not retaining immigrants. 32 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: Well do we hit? I know, I mean, what do 33 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: you say? I mean? Is everyone just just to put 34 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 1: a bluntly pissed off with New Zealand and they can't 35 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: wait to get out of the place. 36 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 2: Well, I think that's the push thing that the labrimarkets 37 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 2: soft unemployments as high. The talk is not very positive, 38 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 2: so it's partly perception. Then what's happening in Australia. Australia 39 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 2: is doing well and it's attracting particularly our young people, 40 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 2: increasingly our thirty something so people have been in our 41 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 2: labor market and then out going and they're just being 42 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 2: much more competitive around superannuation, the salary, all sorts ofs 43 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 2: and pieces that go on, and of course they've women 44 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:32,399 Speaker 2: will actively recruiting here and offering relocation packages. So it's 45 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 2: a mixture really of what's happening on shore and the 46 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 2: despondency and the feeling that we're just not providing jobs, 47 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 2: but also then what we see right across the Tasman's 48 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 2: of women shining example and really a strong attraction. 49 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: Is it permanent once you land in Australia and you 50 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 1: plug into their super and you get your job, are 51 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: you done and you're never coming back? Or is it 52 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: just one of those things that there is a certain 53 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: group of people who will move where the good times are. 54 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 2: Yep, both of those. I think that we've seen people 55 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 2: always leave New Zealand and come back the traditional oe 56 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 2: and even in these figures you can see a lot 57 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 2: of New Zealanders coming back, including from Australia. It's still 58 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 2: a major net loss, but they're still coming back. Interesting 59 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 2: that worries me because that the numbers are growing, and 60 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 2: the numbers are growing over the other side of the 61 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 2: Tasman and so you're getting Grandmum and granddad thinking, well, look, 62 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 2: the adult kids, the grandkids are all the other side 63 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 2: of the Tasman. What's keeping me here in New Zealand. 64 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 2: So we're beginning to see different dynamics in the migration. 65 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: When we've got what we call the center of gravity 66 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 2: somewhere else, in this case in Australia, then it is 67 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 2: an incentive for the rest of the family to go 68 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 2: across there, and of course the guys across the other 69 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 2: side of the Tasman. And so look I'm getting I'm 70 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 2: getting thirty forty thousand dollars more more a year than 71 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 2: you are, my employers playing twelve percent superuation. Come on, 72 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 2: join us, come and come over with us. And so 73 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 2: we're getting that pull across the Tasman in ways that 74 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 2: we wouldn't have seen in the past. So there's all 75 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 2: always be chunned. But I do think we're entering a 76 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 2: slightly different era. 77 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 1: Good on you Pool. Always enjoy the insight, even if 78 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: it's negative. Paul Spoonly, the emeritus professor and Massa University sociologist. 79 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: The settings seem right. It's not like we're not out 80 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 1: in the world saying come on in the Golden visa 81 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: seems to be working to it agree, but the numbers 82 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: just don't add up at the moment. 83 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 2: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 84 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 2: news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 85 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.