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Speaker 1: Iran targeting Saudi oil refineries. Overnight tank is being hit

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Speaker 1: trying to enter the strait of him was Lebanon the

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Speaker 1: latest battleground His bulla israeled a trading strikes. Here's Pete

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Speaker 1: Higgs Seth.

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Speaker 2: If you kill Americans, if you threaten Americans anywhere on Earth,

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Speaker 2: we will hunt you down without apology and without hesitation,

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Speaker 2: and we will kill you.

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Speaker 1: So what's the end? Where does it end? Is the question?

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Speaker 1: Matthew Schmidt, Director of International Affairs, national security expert, and

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Speaker 1: you have a university with US live this morning. Matthew,

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Speaker 1: welcome to the program.

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Speaker 3: Hi Ryan, thanks I here.

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Speaker 1: I know that you have your brief across not only

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Speaker 1: the leadership in Iran but also the weapons. So when

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Speaker 1: does the scene, how does this end? In your view, Matthew, you.

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Speaker 3: Have to think of Iran right now as sort of

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Speaker 3: an elite stage autocracy that's coming apart, and you end

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Speaker 3: up with sort of three basic groups. You've got the

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Speaker 3: security services, the upper ranks were devastated in the first

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Speaker 3: wave of the attack, the IRGC, the Ila Kameni. His

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Speaker 3: son is connected to the IRGC and stands as a

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Speaker 3: possible successor, although his own father said, and Shia Islam

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Speaker 3: sort of pushes against the idea of hereditary succession, so

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Speaker 3: there's there's a bit of a problem there. On the

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Speaker 3: other side, you have the founder's grandson, Hassan Komeni, who

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Speaker 3: positions himself sort of as a moderate, who is someone

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Speaker 3: that may be able to come in and say, look,

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Speaker 3: we can salvage the Islamic Republic as an Islamic republic.

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Speaker 1: It looks like we've just completely lost Matthew, which is

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Speaker 1: a real shame because he has fantastic and fascinating things

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Speaker 1: to say. He does have numbers, so the war likely

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Speaker 1: to shift to Iran's drone capabilities next because we've talked

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Speaker 1: about boots on the ground. His boots on the ground

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Speaker 1: actually is relevant these days. Look at what's happening in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: He says, the stockpile of drones there could be as

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Speaker 1: high as eighty thousand, and those drones are good. He's

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Speaker 1: bent with us, now, Matthew, I'll let you finish.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think I was on a harmony of

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Speaker 3: his grandson, So he's a monitor candidate that could sort

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Speaker 3: of bridge things. And then you have the question of

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Speaker 3: some sort of democratic revolution, right, and the name that

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Speaker 3: we all know in the West is RAZAPALAVII, the son

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Speaker 3: of the Late Shaw, and he's got a lot of support,

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Speaker 3: but he also has a lot of detractors inside Iran

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Speaker 3: and a lot of people who are simply saying, you

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Speaker 3: haven't lived here, you don't know the society. And there

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Speaker 3: are different groups. There's a student group, there's labor groups

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Speaker 3: in Iran, but there's no one really emerging as a

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Speaker 3: leader on the ground in Iran. And that's the real question.

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Speaker 3: So my money right now is on the IOGC consolidating

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Speaker 3: control for the moment. And the problem with the democratic

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Speaker 3: groups is right now they're just trying to save their

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Speaker 3: kids from the bombs, right pick them up from school,

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Speaker 3: get them too, somewhere safe, and nobody's really out in

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Speaker 3: the street.

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Speaker 1: Het Matthew will leave it there, appreciate your time this morning.

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Speaker 1: Sorry about that dodgy line. That's said doctor Matthew Schmidt,

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Speaker 1: who's a national security University of New Haven in the

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Speaker 1: United States. What he also points out is the stockpile

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Speaker 1: of drones there, as I said, could be eighty thousand,

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Speaker 1: and then you look at the fact that they can

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Speaker 1: quickly and at very low costs produce about four hundred

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Speaker 1: more a day. And then Israel's you know the Iron

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Speaker 1: Dome that they've got, Well, the Iron Dome interceptions run

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Speaker 1: it about a million dollars. Your drones run it at

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Speaker 1: about twenty five thousand dollars. So how many intercepts do

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Speaker 1: you do for such cheap toys that have been thrown

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Speaker 1: at your country that can be deadly?

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Speaker 3: For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge.

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Speaker 1: Listen live to News Talk Said Be from five am weekdays,

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