1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,279 Speaker 1: Now let's go to Caitlin Parker of Milford Esset Management. 2 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 2: Hy Katelin hik Harian. 3 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Okay, I'm very well, thank you. Now we've got almost 4 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:09,639 Speaker 1: three years of high interest rates. Are we starting to 5 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: see an acknowledgment do you think from the Reserve Bank 6 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: of the damage that this is causing the economy? 7 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, looks preasingly we are so for the first time 8 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 2: this cycle. Today the orban zat they signal their intent 9 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 2: to create in the statement, and that was definitely a 10 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 2: pleasant surprise for the market because going in, you know, 11 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 2: most of us we did expect that the statement was 12 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: going to be pretty neutral since the Orbenz We're going 13 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 2: to actually say very little, and the market had been 14 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 2: expecting the Urban ved to specquitting rate later this year, 15 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 2: but no one is really expecting them to admit to 16 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 2: this today as such, and they will and truly did 17 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 2: let the cat out of the bag that they are 18 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: thinking about interest right cut. So this was a definite shift, 19 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 2: and some of the key points I suppose for me 20 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: was really the confidence that the orbanz have I mentioned 21 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: it I think twice in the statement, but they are 22 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 2: confident that inflation will go back to their one to 23 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 2: three percent target and then six months. And also the 24 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 2: Urbian said they did discuss that this height monetary policy, 25 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 2: these high interest rates that they're feeding through to domestic 26 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 2: demand more strongly than they expected, but very positively. There 27 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 2: was no mention of or any talk of another out 28 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 2: or hike in the statement today versus earlier in the 29 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 2: year when they tried to elude and come into the 30 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 2: market that potentially they would hike again if inflection remained 31 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 2: for a bust. 32 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, and so what was the market reaction to the 33 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: Reserve Bank today? 34 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,960 Speaker 2: Look, so market was expecting them to start cutting later 35 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 2: this year, and now they're expecting a larger quantum of 36 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,559 Speaker 2: cuts and at a faster pace. So now putting about 37 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 2: a sixty percent probability that the orbans that will start 38 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 2: cutting in August versus later in the year. So we 39 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 2: thought interest rates putting lower immediately on the back of 40 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: that statement being released. So the two year interest rate, 41 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 2: which is an input into mortgage rates, that was down 42 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 2: abouero point two percent. Currency was also weaker, and share 43 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 2: market raleigh on the back of it a bit. So 44 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 2: it was received very well by the market, and I 45 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 2: would imagine that these moves will be somewhat extented that 46 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 2: the offshore markets come in and get involved overnight. So 47 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 2: the urbian zed they would have been well aware of 48 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 2: what this statement would have done and the market reaction 49 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 2: that would have been received at the market starting to 50 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 2: price in work. But so it won't be surprised at 51 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 2: Orbionzett how and markets have reacted. 52 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: Kaitlin. Always good to talk to you. Thank you so 53 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: much for the expertise. It's Kaitlyn Parker of Mills Fedesset Management. 54 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to 55 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 2: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 56 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio