1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:01,920 Speaker 1: Now the flare up in the Middle East could have 2 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: financial implications for New Zealand, pedrol prices, infstrates, key we 3 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 1: save for balances could all be hit. Infametric's chief executive, 4 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: Brad Olsen is with us now high Brad, good evening. 5 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: I would imagine your biggest concern is inflation. 6 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 2: It is for the moment, although so far I think 7 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 2: the uncertainty is still meaning that we're worried, but it's 8 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 2: not as direct so far. The likes of Brent crude 9 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 2: oil prices spuck thirteen percent today, but that was an 10 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 2: early trading. That increase is now halved, with Brent only 11 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: up just over six percent on the latest figures i'm 12 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 2: looking at. So there has been a more muted sort 13 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 2: of push higher in oil prices. People have been wondering 14 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 2: about one hundred dollars a barrel and we haven't. You know, 15 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 2: at the moment, the figures have only just breached eighteen 16 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: and have then pulled back a bit, so this does 17 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 2: seem to be a more limited fallout so far. Yes, 18 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: there's concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and everything else, 19 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 2: but so far energy infrastructure hasn't been directly attacked, and 20 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 2: I think everyone's just trying to sort of wait things 21 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,399 Speaker 2: out and see how long it will go. Other parts 22 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 2: of the economy, though still at a bit more risk. 23 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 2: The likes of Enzix fifty down I thinker point seventy 24 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 2: five percent today, just not really a feeling amongst traders 25 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,199 Speaker 2: that there's a great amount of growth opportunity out there. 26 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 2: And when we see US markets open tomorrow, would be 27 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 2: expecting a similar sort of pullback in the likes of stocks. 28 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 2: But sort of those other purchases that people often flop 29 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 2: to for a bit of a safe haven, like gold, well, 30 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 2: they look like they've got a bit more potential. So 31 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 2: a lot that we're trying to watch at the moment, 32 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,320 Speaker 2: but a lot of uncertainty still coming out of the 33 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: Middle East. 34 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, so half of thirteen is roughly about six which 35 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: is what the oil prices have gone up by. Do 36 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: we know what that means that the petrol pump for US. 37 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: Well, I guess given how much it's sort of flicked around, 38 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 2: even just within today, I'd be disappointed if you saw 39 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 2: oil companies, the retailers here in New Zealand lift pump 40 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 2: prices too quickly because all of this you could well 41 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 2: have operated away a little bit quicker. I'd expect that 42 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 2: you might see over the course of this week a 43 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 2: little bit more pressure coming on domestic prices. But again 44 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 2: I think that you know, traders and the oil companies 45 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 2: will need to be a little bit careful. Looking through 46 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 2: some of the figures shows that international traders are thinking 47 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 2: that there's sort of a three month impact here, so 48 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 2: you know, changing things across the board and expecting fuel 49 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 2: prices to be higher for you know, the next year 50 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 2: is very much over the top. For now, I think 51 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 2: it's probably a bit more sensible to sort of just 52 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 2: hold things for the next week and then assess where 53 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 2: where we get to. I mean, this is still a 54 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 2: volatile situation, but yes, a bit more pressure, and of 55 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 2: course that's coming at a time when tradeable overseas based 56 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 2: inflation had already been pitching up. The Reserve Bank's already 57 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 2: got inflation out the top of the target ban. They 58 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 2: are worried about these sort of pressures, but equally, you'd 59 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 2: hope that they'd look through a geopolitical event like this 60 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 2: where they couldn't look through it as much. Is if 61 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 2: not only households were being hit with those higher fuel 62 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 2: prices if they go up, but also if transport costs 63 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 2: around the country go up, and that would mean that 64 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 2: every other product that has to get moved by road 65 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 2: or ship or eything else would increase too. So some 66 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 2: indirect effects that we're watching and waiting on. I mean, 67 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 2: you've also got travel disruptions with airlines, You've got trade 68 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 2: disruptions with about three billion dollars worth of exports from 69 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 2: New Zealand that go up into the Gulf. So a 70 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 2: lot of moving parts. But for the minute, I do 71 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 2: think that everyone probably needs to keep their wits about 72 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 2: them rather than reacting violently to these changes. 73 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: Right, so you need to mediate this. Ben text earlier 74 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: and said you've got to pull all your key we 75 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: saver out of high risk and put it into cash, 76 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: and then Phil said, nah, don't do that because if 77 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: you do that, then when the upswing happens, you're going 78 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: to miss out on all the games. So what do 79 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: you think, Well. 80 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 2: Look, if you wanted to put it to move it 81 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 2: out of a high risk strategy, you've got to do 82 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 2: that before the risk comes through. If you're going to 83 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 2: change it only once the market's open and they've already 84 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 2: sort of you know, dropped away, then you're just locking 85 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 2: in the loss. I think it comes down to risk tolerance. 86 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 2: Like if you were looking to use your key we 87 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 2: saver for I don't know, the likes of retirement or 88 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 2: to buy a house or something, then you probably weren't 89 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 2: or maybe shouldn't have had it in such a high 90 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 2: risk sort of moveable position in the first place. Personally, 91 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 2: as someone who's not looking to touch the key we 92 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 2: saver for probably thirty plus years, I'm not going to 93 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 2: look back and go, oh, remember in March twenty twenty 94 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 2: six when things changed around because of that conflict. I'm 95 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 2: probably just not going to look at my key we 96 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 2: save for the next couple of weeks. So if you're 97 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 2: worried about your key we saver, go and take some 98 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 2: advice rather than making some rash action. If you're worried 99 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 2: about it, you probably should have been worried about it 100 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 2: before all of this came up, and now's the second 101 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 2: best opportunity to have a chat with someone to get 102 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 2: that advice. But I do worry, I mean heither you 103 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: remember the likes to start a COVID when markets, you know, 104 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 2: absolutely dropped out, people made huge changes to their key 105 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 2: we saver. Three months later it all came back and 106 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 2: a lot of people went, damn, I lost that and 107 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 2: I listed have locked in a loss. 108 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: Do you know what such a good point that you make, Brad? 109 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 1: As always, thank you mate, look after yourself. Brad Olson 110 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: infor Metric Chief Executive. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, 111 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, 112 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.