1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,480 Speaker 1: Interesting stats on our public service, given the noise around 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: the restructure over the past year or so, workforces down 3 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: three point one percent. What's that meaning jobs? Well, two 4 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 1: thousand are gone two thousand, but quarterly we now have 5 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: a zero point four percent increase in public service jobs. 6 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: There are now sixty three thousand, two hundred and thirty 7 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: eight full time in the public service. Consultant spending came 8 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 1: at four hundred and twenty million. Is that bad? Well, 9 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: not as bad as it was because it's the lowest 10 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: in seven years anyway. Cameron Bagri, Independent economist, as well 11 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: as Cameron morning to you. 12 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 2: I'm morning My two. 13 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: Thousand as an exercise inefficiency in productivity is two thousand 14 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: out of sixty three a win? 15 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,239 Speaker 2: Well, I guess we've got to sit back and think 16 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 2: about Yeah, there's that old sort of adage about there's 17 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 2: laws as damn laws and statistics. So five were lock 18 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 2: at government personnel expenses and the nine months to March 19 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five versus the nine months to March twoy 20 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 2: twenty four, government person our expensers are up three point 21 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 2: one percent, So that doesn't personify to me too much 22 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: of a tightening in regard to what's going on. So 23 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 2: there might be a little bit of your hodge podging 24 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 2: in regardless to six down below. But if you've got 25 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 2: the top line sort of figures, the top line figures 26 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 2: are still grown exactly. 27 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: So even of the people we got rid of, there's 28 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: an increase. Why are we having an increase? How does 29 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: that come about? 30 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 2: Well, I guess if you once if you look at 31 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 2: top down, like we're getting a lot of writer here 32 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: in regard it's been a real, big, huge tightening of 33 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 2: the belt. If you ever look at what's called the 34 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 2: obigal operating balance excluding gains and losses, or what's called 35 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 2: the structural deficit, which trips out the impact of the 36 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 2: economic cycle, they're still deteriorating over the coming twelve months. 37 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 2: It's going to get worse. Your net debt is up 38 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 2: fifteen dollars in the next twelve months. There's a lot 39 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 2: of writers about the government tightening the belt, But all 40 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 2: the savings that I'm seeing within the fiscal accounts are backloaded. 41 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 2: All the good time stuff in the form of tax cuts, 42 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: investment boost that sort of stuff that's front load. So 43 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: what we're seeing here at the moment, there might be 44 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 2: a bit of tightening in certain years of expenditure up front, 45 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 2: but that's been reallocated towards a bit of feel good 46 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 2: stuff on the other side of the lead show. And 47 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 2: it's bad taking for paul to pay Peter Pauline to 48 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 2: pay Penny that sort of stuff. But the important thing here, 49 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 2: Mike is the big change in the fiscal stance, you know, 50 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 2: the tightening of the rains. We have not yet seen 51 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,119 Speaker 2: that that's in the out years. And the question mark 52 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 2: here is that all that really being delivered? 53 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 1: Interesting? What's your call next week? By the way, while 54 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: I got you on the GDP that somebody who was 55 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: reading is a zero point seven and we've got some 56 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: growth in Q one or no, we had some growth 57 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: in Q one. 58 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 2: Oh, we've got growth in Q one. But the big level, 59 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 2: the big issue here is once again it's levels versus chains. 60 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 2: So GDP is a change metric. So we're going to 61 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 2: see positive growth, which is a good thing, but you 62 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 2: need to see numerous quarters of positive growth before you're 63 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 2: going to get that level of GDP back into the 64 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 2: happy zone. Because we saw the economy get pretty beaten 65 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 2: up in two thousand and twenty twenty four. In twenty 66 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: twenty three. So levels matter for business and regard to profitability, 67 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 2: covered your operating class, that sort of Stubb with, We're 68 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 2: moving in the right direction, but to get in that 69 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 2: real feel good zone, I think we're still about six 70 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 2: to nine months away, but we're moving in the right direction. 71 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: Good stuff, Cameron, you have a good weekend. Appreciate it 72 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 1: very much, Cameron Bagriy Independent Economists. For more from the 73 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 1: Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks it'd be 74 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.