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Speaker 1: More insight into the economy some decent use, I think

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Speaker 1: from supermarkets in the year to March supply costs of

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Speaker 1: risen two percent, the year to March supply costs of

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Speaker 1: risen two percent. It coincides ons the weird bit with

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Speaker 1: a survey also this morning that tells us one and

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Speaker 1: four are struggling financially, which I suppose men seventy five percent,

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Speaker 1: three and four aren't, and that cost of living remains

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Speaker 1: the number one issue for voters now. Informetrics principal economist

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Speaker 1: Brad Olson's back, Well, this Bradley.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning.

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Speaker 1: So that grocery supply cost at two percent, that's well

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Speaker 1: within the inflation band. Is this a trend? Do we

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Speaker 1: seem to have settled?

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Speaker 2: We do seem to have settled a bit more. There's

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Speaker 2: been a little bit of volatility around the two percent mark,

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Speaker 2: but the fact that it seems to be a bit

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Speaker 2: better contained is of course reassuring. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: looking through some of the cost changes that we've seen

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Speaker 2: in March and to be feared the last couple of

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Speaker 2: months as well, it is some of those often more

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Speaker 2: important items to households that are still increasing and increasing

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Speaker 2: at a rapid pace. So you look at the likes

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Speaker 2: of dairy, your milk costs, your cream costs, your cheese costs,

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Speaker 2: all of those are up. The likes of you your

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Speaker 2: other important stuff chocolate and coffee are also increasing. Olive oil,

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Speaker 2: you know, a little bit better in the last month

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Speaker 2: or two, but overall still high. So although I think

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Speaker 2: the pace of change is generally a lot less intense

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Speaker 2: when we are compared to when we had inflation really

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Speaker 2: running rampant, the fact is these costs are still increasing

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Speaker 2: and that's still sort of accumulative overall increase. That still

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Speaker 2: makes it tough. I think when households are looking at

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Speaker 2: their budgets that things haven't necessarily got cheaper. They just

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Speaker 2: haven't been increasing at the same pace.

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Speaker 1: But unlike previous times where costs were simply passed on

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Speaker 1: and supply chains were a problem and none of us

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Speaker 1: knew what the hell was going on with chocolate and

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Speaker 1: dairy and cocoa and coffee. And so we can explain

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Speaker 1: it because there's rationale. But you may not like it.

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Speaker 1: But there's a rationale behind it, though, isn't.

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Speaker 2: It There is? I mean, especially if you look at

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Speaker 2: some of those overseas supply issues the likes of your

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Speaker 2: coffee and your cocoa. I mean, people one still desperately

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Speaker 2: want that stuff. It's important in the morning and after

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Speaker 2: when you need a sweet treat at night, and has

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Speaker 2: been driven by the fact that there's just not as

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Speaker 2: much production out of some of those key distributors around

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Speaker 2: the world for the likes of dairy and even meat. Increasingly,

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Speaker 2: you do see that there are those further price increases

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Speaker 2: coming through. That's because global demand is strong, and again

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Speaker 2: that's a bit of a double edged sword. On one hand,

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Speaker 2: it's good for our exporters that they're getting those higher

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Speaker 2: prices on the international market, but it also means that

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Speaker 2: domestic prices generally have to push higher to try and compensate.

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Speaker 2: Otherwise exporters would send everything overseas and there wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: enough left at home. So there is again, I think,

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Speaker 2: a real challenge there. You're right though, that it is

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Speaker 2: a bit more explainable for households though, and you can

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Speaker 2: see this in the survey results this morning. That still

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Speaker 2: is sort of cold comfort. You can explain it, but

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Speaker 2: it still doesn't mean why life is any easy now.

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Speaker 1: I get that. Having said that, do we have a

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Speaker 1: mentality now where the cost of living is just a

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Speaker 1: thing because we've decided it is, even though there might

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Speaker 1: be evidence i e. Two percent that it's not what

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Speaker 1: it once was.

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Speaker 2: I think that's absolutely true. We've got a much keener

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Speaker 2: focus on and that's sort of what happens when it

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Speaker 2: gets out of control, and for a long time, no

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Speaker 2: one had to worry about it quite as much. I

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Speaker 2: think also, though, again, that the cost of living challenge

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Speaker 2: that a lot of households have is that I do

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Speaker 2: wonder if a lot of people are still waiting for

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Speaker 2: the cost to go back to what they were in

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, and just simply they won't. Everything is a

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Speaker 2: whole lot more expensive. But also we do concentrate a

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Speaker 2: lot more on higher prices or costs than lower and

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Speaker 2: we also don't take into account quite as much the

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Speaker 2: income effects. So yes, prices are higher, but people's incomes

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Speaker 2: have also increased what came through a bit more on

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Speaker 2: the survey though, and I think this is sort of

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Speaker 2: a bit of a trend for this year. Although you're

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Speaker 2: going to have more people that are going on to

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Speaker 2: sort of lower mortgage rates, you've got more people that

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Speaker 2: again are seeing lower inflationary pressures. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: they're a bit worried about their jobs still, and while

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Speaker 2: that persists, that's still going to weigh on the minds

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Speaker 2: of households. So everyone's pretty cautious. You throw in a

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Speaker 2: global trade war and I think everyone's just still a

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Speaker 2: pretty a lot on edge.

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Speaker 1: If you will, good on your Bradley good to having

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Speaker 1: on the program, as always got to trust him. I mean,

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Speaker 1: surely if you did a media survey on do you

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Speaker 1: trust Brad Olson, they what's to argue with.

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