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Speaker 1: Now Shane solely harbor asset management is with US right now,

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Speaker 1: has Shane? I hear that now on the US election,

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Speaker 1: right got the polls starting to look like it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a Republican dominated government and Trump's going to win.

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Speaker 1: How are the capital markets reacting to this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the polling is getting close, and I think you know,

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Speaker 2: we have gone from pricing in a Harris Democrat government

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Speaker 2: to starting the price of Trump Republican government. But this

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Speaker 2: is also thinking about this is going to be a

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Speaker 2: divided government, one party not controlling a presidency, House and Senate,

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Speaker 2: so that means that to some degree they can kind

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Speaker 2: of knock each other out or significantly modify the policy.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, the market's really focus on what does the

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Speaker 2: Trump government mean for tax, trade, tariff's, labor, immigration, those

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Speaker 2: sicky things, and we know that historically that are Republican.

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Speaker 2: When shi market likes it, there's a lot of tacks.

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Speaker 2: The US dollar teams to go up, and that's what

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Speaker 2: we've seen in the last few weeks. But we've also

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Speaker 2: seen long term government bond years in the US go up.

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Speaker 2: They've been going down. It's been one of the stories

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Speaker 2: for the last probably six months they're actually going down.

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Speaker 2: They've been going back up because people worry about what

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Speaker 2: does the tariff mean for inflation? So look, you know,

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Speaker 2: we think there's a lot to sort of watch for

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Speaker 2: at the margin. Even these tariffs are a risk for China, right,

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Speaker 2: and so some of the good policy announcements that China

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Speaker 2: have talked about big PEPs getting neutralized by the risk

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Speaker 2: of tariff. So yeah, one way to go. Getting quite

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Speaker 2: exciting though, and so yeah, the market's jumped from one

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Speaker 2: side of the ship to the other.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is getting quite exciting. Hey, back at home,

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Speaker 1: we're expecting to hear from both the governor and the

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Speaker 1: Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank this week. Are we

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Speaker 1: expecting much in terms of the.

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Speaker 2: Market, Well, I'll be Assistant governor out on Tuesday, ibenz

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Speaker 2: governor on Wednesday, and we the market are looking for

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Speaker 2: further indications on official cash rate cuts, and we'll go

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Speaker 2: what's priced in the markets, assuming there'll be a point

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Speaker 2: eight five eight, so just under point six percent cut

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Speaker 2: to official rates in November. That's kind of like I

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Speaker 2: normally we go twenty five basis points or point two five,

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Speaker 2: so more than a half a percent less than point

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Speaker 2: seven five percent, So the market is saying, yeah, it

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Speaker 2: needs to be more than half. Maybe not enough. Karen Silp,

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Speaker 2: Assistant Governor, spoke last week at a really well attended

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Speaker 2: City Group presentation on Australasian equities or in economies. She

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Speaker 2: did a good job, but she didn't give a lot away.

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Speaker 2: She talked it out. I might have done it. Almost

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Speaker 2: came close to a little jig when CPI figures showed

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Speaker 2: they got back to two point two, But I don't

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Speaker 2: know if she did the jig or not. She talked

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Speaker 2: about it. Look, you know residential properly real estate guys,

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Speaker 2: they might be getting excited about lower Mullers rates, but

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Speaker 2: I think we all know, and I know you've pointed

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Speaker 2: this out here there is it takes time for this

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Speaker 2: lower rates to work their way through the system. Could

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Speaker 2: take a year. So now we're looking at a reserve

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Speaker 2: bank who might be tempted to be about gradual because

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Speaker 2: of inflation is not quite in the target, but today

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Speaker 2: we had to be. And ZID are reporting New Zealand

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Speaker 2: job ads felt half a percent of the last month.

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Speaker 2: So the New Zealand economy, it's still slow and we

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Speaker 2: still need to see rate cups coming through. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, Hey, we are well into annual shareholder meeting season.

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Speaker 1: What are you expecting from the meetings that we're going

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Speaker 1: to have this week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, and your Shield of Meetings, they're in addition

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Speaker 2: to providing a great platform for shihelders to take companies

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Speaker 2: to account boards and management, they are quite an important

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Speaker 2: opportunity to get a snapshot on where the companies are

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Speaker 2: traveling in terms of profitability and also to get an

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Speaker 2: idea where the economy is. This week we've got eleven

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Speaker 2: companies with the annual Shield of Meetings. Wednesday we've got Ebos,

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Speaker 2: Fletcher Building, Freightways, Property of Industry. Tuesday we've got Chorus

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Speaker 2: Scatter up in winter, and Friday we've got Porta Terrara,

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Speaker 2: So we've got quite a cross section of different sources

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Speaker 2: of how is the economy going, how is your profitability traveling?

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Speaker 2: So yeah, actually a lot of scrutiny more than normal

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Speaker 2: because we are looking to see if we're at the

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Speaker 2: bottom yet, whether there's a turning point. So a lot

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Speaker 2: of focus on there and your Shield of Meetings this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good stuff. Hey, Shaneanks for running us through. We'll

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Speaker 1: talk to you next week that Shane solely as per usual,

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Speaker 1: on a Monday of Harba Asset managements.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks they'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow

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