1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,760 Speaker 1: Now, Jeremy Hutton Milford Asset Management is with me right now, Hey, Jeremy, 2 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: good evening hither Now, what did you make of the 3 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: COMMUS Commission clearing Contact Energy's acquisition of Manowa Energy. 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 2: It was somewhat surprising news this morning with the COMMICS 5 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:19,320 Speaker 2: Commission approving their acquisition ahead of schedule. So for reference, 6 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 2: Contact Energy, they're one of the big four electricity gent 7 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 2: tailors and they applied last year to acquire Manoa, who 8 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: are the fifth largest player in the generation market. So 9 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:32,480 Speaker 2: there is a key difference between generation and the retail market. Now, 10 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 2: a large generator el Gent Taylor acquiring a smaller player 11 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 2: on the surface could make people a little bit nervous 12 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 2: from a competition perspective. But the COMMAS Commission went away, 13 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 2: they did their analysis and review and they said today 14 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: that they were satisfied that the acquisition is unlikely to 15 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 2: lessen competition in the retail market and then also unlikely 16 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: to push up electricity prices for consumers. 17 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: So that would imply that increased regulation for the electricity 18 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: sectors low, Yeah. 19 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 2: I'd say unlikely. I mean the pressure is always going 20 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 2: to be on for more regulation, and the commist Commission 21 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 2: did point out in its release that they still have 22 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 2: some concerns about lack of competition in the market, and 23 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 2: there are still a number of reviews underway which the 24 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 2: Commist Commission is a part of. But under the law 25 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 2: and under competition law, if the Commission did their analysis 26 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 2: and they believed that the deal wouldn't reduce competition, then 27 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 2: they really have no option but to approve the transaction. Now, 28 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: what I will say is that politicians, they're always going 29 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 2: to have a view on this, and we are heading 30 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 2: into an election next year and the sector does become 31 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: very political, So I do expect a lot more commentary 32 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: on this competition in the run up to the election 33 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 2: next year. 34 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about main fright now. Main freights had 35 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: a very start, a strong start to the main mouth 36 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: what's going on. 37 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, so the main freight's year price that had been 38 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 2: hit really hard on fares of lower earnings expectations, and 39 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: that's primarily driven from reduced global growth and effectively the 40 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: Trump tariff turmoil. Now, main Freight they released a trading 41 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: update on Friday and it was a pretty emphatic rebuttal 42 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:13,399 Speaker 2: of some of these market expectations of a downgrade. Currently, 43 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 2: they're only seeing impacts in their Transpacific freight lane, so 44 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 2: that's the China to US freight lane that we're very 45 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 2: familiar with. In the US division as well, now there's 46 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 2: quite a small part of main Freight's earning, so it 47 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 2: doesn't move the dial too much. But most importantly their 48 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,679 Speaker 2: Crown Duel divisions, which is Australia and New Zealand, they're 49 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 2: not seeing any impact at the moment, and that was 50 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,399 Speaker 2: quite surprising to the market. It took it quite positively 51 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 2: and the share price was up thirteen percent. So if 52 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,519 Speaker 2: that contagion doesn't come down to the side of the 53 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 2: world so much and keeps limited to the US, then 54 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 2: the main Freight share price should continue to be very strong. 55 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: And then what about Briscoes. They had a trading update today. 56 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: I mean, they had been doing really well, but then 57 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: they've taken a has and Q one have they? 58 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, one of widely perceived is one of New zealand 59 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 2: leading retailers, and they reported their start of the year 60 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 2: sales numbers and you know, it just continued to highlight 61 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 2: to me how tough the retail market still live in 62 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 2: New Zealand. And then just you know, some of these 63 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 2: green shoots that we've been expecting, you know, continuing to 64 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 2: get pushed out, mainly in their homewere division. You know, 65 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,839 Speaker 2: they saw their sales down almost five percent versus last year. 66 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 2: But most importantly they just had some confidence in returning 67 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 2: or stronger profits in the second half of this year 68 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 2: and their forward guidance, and I think a lot of 69 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 2: other retailers in New Zealand will be holding out hope 70 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 2: for that as well. 71 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: Absolutely, Jeremy, thanks as always, this really good stork to you. 72 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: That's Jeremy Hutton, Milford Accid Management. For more from Hither 73 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks. It'd be 74 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.