1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: The elections coming November seventh. Of course Whins will refuse 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: to go into negotiations until the final official count lands. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: He's always done that. So anyway, by that stage, once 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: we finally get into some negotiation with something, we're going 5 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: to be close to Christmas, if not the new year, 6 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:17,479 Speaker 1: before we know who's going to lead the country for 7 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: the next three years. So Liam here is a political 8 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: commentator and joins me. Now, Liam, long time, no speak? 9 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: How are you? Good morning? 10 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 2: I'm very well, good morning to you. 11 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 1: So first up this this date. I said yesterday the 12 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: government just wants to wait for as many green shoots 13 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: as possible. Would you say that's the case. 14 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 2: That's exactly right. It's been the strategy the whole time. 15 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 2: You know, it's been a rough couple of years, and 16 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: I can tell you, as someone who's got a business 17 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: of myself, that it has been very difficult. Things are 18 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 2: turning it around. There has been a turning of the corner, 19 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 2: and unemployments predicted to a sort of checking down. So 20 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 2: I'm hoping that if they hear as much time as 21 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: possible that people will start to feel more and more confident. 22 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 2: So it's about of weight as it can be according 23 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 2: to you know, recent precedent. We're much more use to 24 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:18,399 Speaker 2: October elections in New Zealand, recent vintage. But they want 25 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 2: to buy as much time as possible for the economy 26 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 2: to improve as much as possible. 27 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, But at the same time we keep on 28 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: hearing that we will get election fatigue and then that 29 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 1: turns voters off and then people can be bothered because 30 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: they've had enough of it by the time we get 31 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 1: to November the seventh. 32 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 2: There's always a risk, and the risk is that if 33 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,680 Speaker 2: things don't improve, or if the government becomes more unpopular, 34 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 2: there's more time for that popularity or a road. So 35 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 2: I mean, there's there's no such thing as a sure 36 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: bet in Baltics, and they are taking a big bet 37 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 2: on the economy improving and that being the main thing, 38 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 2: the main driver of voters. 39 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: And we got somebody from Labour at the bump and 40 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: going oh over this next election, you're going to hear 41 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: a lot of disagreements between the coalition parties and I'm thinking, well, 42 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 1: of course you because this is the period of time 43 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: where they differentiate them differentiate themselves from each other. 44 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 2: Well, what's been really interesting is that you haven't seen 45 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 2: the minor party collapse that you normally see from a 46 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 2: coalition government or any type of government. Are the MMP 47 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 2: and that is because the wister Peters and David sea 48 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 2: Wall have been differentiating themselves constantly throughout the last two 49 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 2: and a half years. It's been very difficult for Christopher 50 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 2: Luxan and it's one of the reasons why National hasn't 51 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 2: sort of had the big bounce that governments normally have 52 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 2: at the end of their first term. It's because they 53 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 2: have Lutson and David c Will have figured out that 54 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,519 Speaker 2: the way to continue to maintain their party support while 55 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 2: government is to be as difficult as possible, to be 56 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 2: continued to be bad boys. And I think that this 57 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 2: is the first election where the minor parties of the 58 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: coalition are going in Losten pretty strong, so if that's true, 59 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 2: But it's been happening more already. 60 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 1: And Labor, I mean, what's going to happen with Labor? 61 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: I mean they don't want to work with to Pattimali. 62 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: They actually want to destroy to Palti Mari and when 63 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: all the seats they do want to work with the Greens, 64 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:18,679 Speaker 1: But in that case will they ever be able to 65 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: get enough seats. 66 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:24,239 Speaker 2: This is this is the big thing for National ifal 67 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 2: TPM quite politically toxic to the most of the voting population, 68 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 2: but quite popular with the hardcore of the left, and 69 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 2: that is a classic what we thought would call a 70 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 2: wedge in politics. And if National can tie Labour's fate 71 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 2: to that TPM, that is a potential big driver of 72 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 2: votes for National And the same way that the then 73 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 2: unpopularity of the Greens that's changed since been two thousand 74 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 2: and two. The Greens are quite unpopular in the United 75 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:03,839 Speaker 2: Future was able to ride that about sort of a big, 76 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: big bump in the polls. If National can in the 77 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 2: same way from time Labor to TPM, that's the type 78 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: of thing that might drive Centrius photos to National on 79 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 2: the basis that is there any way to keep TPM 80 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 2: out of government. So it's a big it's a big 81 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 2: f about this election. 82 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: Oh lots of and that's what makes elections fascinating them. 83 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time today. That's them 84 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 1: here Political Commentator. 85 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 2: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live 86 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,359 Speaker 2: to News Talks it'd be from five am weekdays, or 87 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.