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Speaker 1: Right now, we'll go to Paul Blocks from HSBC Chief Economists,

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Speaker 1: because there are no rush the Aussies to move on

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Speaker 1: the ocr there the Reserve Bank of Australia deciding today

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Speaker 1: to hold steady at three point eighty five. Paul good evening,

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Speaker 1: good a.

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Speaker 2: So no rush, no rush at all.

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Speaker 3: In fact, quite a surprise for the market because the

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Speaker 3: market was quite convinced that the RBA was going to

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Speaker 3: cut its policy rate today and it decided instead that

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Speaker 3: it's got a bit of time. And in particular it's

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Speaker 3: you know, noting that you know, they want to wait

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Speaker 3: and see what the next CPI, the quarterly CPI reading

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Speaker 3: looks like before they potentially deliver another cut. So they

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Speaker 3: were prepared to wait today and sit still and wait

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Speaker 3: for that all important information we get in a few

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Speaker 3: weeks time.

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Speaker 1: Is that front and well it must be frustrating for

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Speaker 1: people who thought they might be getting a little more

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Speaker 1: off their mortgage.

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Speaker 2: Well that's right.

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Speaker 3: If interest rates don't come down, it makes it a

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Speaker 3: bit tougher for people who've got mortgages. But I think

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Speaker 3: the main thing the Governor was pointing out in the

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Speaker 3: press conference and in the statement was that although inflation's

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Speaker 3: coming down in Australia. Yeah, corp inflation has only just

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Speaker 3: had one print where we've gotten into the target band.

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Speaker 3: So the last print was at two point nine percent.

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Speaker 3: They target two to three and so they want to

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Speaker 3: be really convinced that inflation's going to get to the

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Speaker 3: midpoint of that target band and they just haven't got

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Speaker 3: quite enough evidence to get them over the line for

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Speaker 3: delivering another cut as yet.

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Speaker 2: But she also pointed out that a lot of this.

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Speaker 3: Was timing rather than direction, and those were the words

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Speaker 3: the Governor used. That they still think they'll be delivering

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Speaker 3: more rate cuts, they just think that it's not quite

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Speaker 3: time yet to deliver the next one.

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Speaker 1: And the fact that the board voted six to three

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Speaker 1: in favor of the whole what does that tell you

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Speaker 1: about the next one.

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Speaker 3: It was quite interesting because the Reserve Bank has never

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Speaker 3: published board votes before. Obviously, we've got a new Monetary

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Speaker 3: Policy Committee here in Australia and this is a new

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Speaker 3: procedure that they will publish unattributed votes from the board.

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Speaker 3: So it tells you that there was a healthy debate

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Speaker 3: about the possibility of cutting and that obviously three of

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Speaker 3: the board members thought that they should cut and six

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Speaker 3: said they should hold. So it's, you know again sort

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Speaker 3: of this idea that it's really about timing rather than direction,

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Speaker 3: and it wasn't obviously unanimous story for the board members.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what is Michelle Bollock? Every time I see her perform,

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Speaker 1: she seems in charge, calm, measured thought. For what's the

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Speaker 1: impression of in the eyes of the Australian public.

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Speaker 3: Well, this is a new strategy from the RBA, if

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Speaker 3: you think about to give a press conferences. This is

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Speaker 3: a new thing that's been adopted by the RBA just

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Speaker 3: in recent times.

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Speaker 2: And so I think.

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Speaker 3: The Australian public, you know, is getting still getting used

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Speaker 3: to and markets are still getting used to what this

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Speaker 3: how this all works. The press conference is really designed

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Speaker 3: to speak about what happened that day and why they

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Speaker 3: decided what they've decided, and to speak to the Australian

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Speaker 3: people about about why that decision has been made. I

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Speaker 3: think the main thing is market participants are trying to

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Speaker 3: work out how much of it's a communication for them

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Speaker 3: versus a communication for the general public, and there can

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Speaker 3: be nuances that are different for those two groups.

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Speaker 1: Our Finance Minister over here on the out of the Testament.

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Speaker 1: Paul's been talking about text potentially texting Aussie banks a

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Speaker 1: bit more. Is that making any ways or news in

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Speaker 1: your area.

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Speaker 3: I haven't seen anything in Australia that much much about that.

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Speaker 3: We've got an RB and Z meeting tomorrow, obviously, so

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Speaker 3: this is you know, we've got a big central bank

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Speaker 3: week for the Antipodeans, and like the RBA, we expect

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Speaker 3: the RBNZ is likely to be on hold tomorrow as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: No, everyone's sort of in a cratch hold position, aren't they.

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Speaker 1: I mean, and the Fed doesn't want to go anywhere

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Speaker 1: because they're worried that inflation will take off again with

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Speaker 1: the tariffs and all that sort of stuff.

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Speaker 3: That's right, So the Fed is on hold at the moment,

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Speaker 3: and I guess they're watching all of the trade policy

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Speaker 3: developments and they're happening day by day at the moment.

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Speaker 2: So that's one of the features keeping the Fed on hold.

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Speaker 3: I think for RB and ZED that the story is

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Speaker 3: that there have been a lot of interest rate cuts

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Speaker 3: already delivered.

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Speaker 2: I think it's starting to lift growth in New Zealand.

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Speaker 3: And the other feature is that inflation started to pick

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Speaker 3: up a little bit recently, and I think that's likely

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Speaker 3: to keep the rb inst on hold tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think you might be right, Paul. Thank

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Speaker 1: you for that. Paul Block. Some HSBC chief economists with

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Speaker 1: us from Australia. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,

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