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Speaker 1: Now we've got some positive trade news stats. New Zealand

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Speaker 1: data show that goods exports rose nineteen percent to seven

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Speaker 1: point six billion dollars in March just compared to the

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Speaker 1: same time a year ago. The monthly trade balance is

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Speaker 1: a surplus of nine hundred and seventy million dollars, which

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Speaker 1: came higher than expected. And Inframetrics principal economist Nick Brunsden

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Speaker 1: is with us, Hey.

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Speaker 2: Nick, good here you do.

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Speaker 1: I'm very well, thank you. Not what's driven it higher

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Speaker 1: than we expected?

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Speaker 2: A range of things in terms of that on the

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Speaker 2: product size, dairy prices are a lot better, so you know,

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Speaker 2: a basic boost and dairy price is account for about

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Speaker 2: half of that. The prices are good across all sorts

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Speaker 2: of things that we export. Quei route prices are pretty good.

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Speaker 2: Beef prices are holding up, high Land recovering, so that's

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Speaker 2: already helped.

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Speaker 1: Is there any indication that we are managing to diverse

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Speaker 1: by our trade a little bit away from China, which

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Speaker 1: is what we've been trying to do for a while.

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Speaker 2: There is a little bit, yep. So about half of

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Speaker 2: our trade goes to the big three China, Australia and

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Speaker 2: the US. Over the past year, we had a more

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Speaker 2: than twenty percent increase to some key partners, so the Netherlands, UK,

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Speaker 2: Indonesia and Canada. So that's really good. But I think

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Speaker 2: they've moved the dial from sort of fifty percent to

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Speaker 2: fifty two percent. So good stuff. But you know we're

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Speaker 2: going to need a lot more a lot more of

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Speaker 2: that diversification in the future.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's fair point. Well, how the Trump tariff's going

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Speaker 1: to change what we're seeing.

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Speaker 2: Here directly for US. I mean it's a hit, you know.

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Speaker 2: I think it's something that nine hundred million dollars for

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Speaker 2: New Zealand. The bigger hit will come sort of indirectly

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Speaker 2: through our trading partners. Obviously, China is the largest importer

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Speaker 2: of our goods and they're looking at one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent or depending on what day of the week.

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Speaker 2: It is a pretty big terror from the US. So ultimately,

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Speaker 2: if those terraffs make China poorer, they won't be buying

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Speaker 2: our great stuff.

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Speaker 1: Nick. Look, the thing is, I mean we're obviously going

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Speaker 1: to look at this and say, Yay, things are finally

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Speaker 1: on the up and and everything is looking good. But

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Speaker 1: the fact is, March is always a little bit better

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Speaker 1: as a month for US as a country, So should

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Speaker 1: we be should we be seeing this as the start

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Speaker 1: of a trend with just a monthly March blip.

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Speaker 2: So that even on an annual basis, the numbers are

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Speaker 2: pretty good. So we had a seven percent increase in

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Speaker 2: the year to March over the whole year, so that's good.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, the bigger picture is that global uncertainty that

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Speaker 2: we're seeing around around tariffs, around and sort of that

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Speaker 2: knock on to investment. We think that will sort of

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Speaker 2: push out New Zealand's recovery by a couple of years.

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Speaker 2: It's just it's not the kind of environment where anyone

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Speaker 2: really wants to invest. Everyone's kind of just sitting on

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Speaker 2: the sidelines, and that's going to push down growth. Brilliant stuff.

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Speaker 1: Hey, Nick, thank you very much, really appreciate Nick Brunsdon,

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Speaker 1: Infametrix Principle Economist. For more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive,

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