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Speaker 1: From general rate Monday morning, Grigsmith, how.

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Speaker 2: Are you good morning, Mike.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's job's number. That was a shocker, wasn't it.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely Yeah, all things considered, they'll have to say the

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Speaker 2: US in disease did held up really well last week,

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Speaker 2: and despite the scursion or PUS, which we'll get to

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Speaker 2: in a minute. But yeah, the US economy lost ninety

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Speaker 2: two thousand jobs in December. That's the worst in four

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Speaker 2: months and a big miss versus expectations for a gain.

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Speaker 2: It's the third time in five months jobs have declined.

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Speaker 2: And also the revisions might so jenuy was revised slightly lower,

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Speaker 2: but December was revised down by sixty five thousand to

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Speaker 2: a loss of seventeen thousand jobs. This weakness has been

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Speaker 2: brewing for a while. Unemployment rate that ticked up to

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Speaker 2: four point four percent, participation rate people looking for work

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Speaker 2: fell as sixty two percent. That's its licence twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, US workers are stepping back from the job.

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Speaker 2: There were a few mitigating reasons. Mike weather was one

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Speaker 2: or that affected leisure, hospitality, and construction. There was a

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Speaker 2: healthcare strike und about thirty one thousand physicians walked off

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Speaker 2: the job and made provider and the second lost job

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Speaker 2: the first time since January twenty two. And healthy has

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Speaker 2: obviously been a reliable source of jobs, says the government.

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Speaker 2: And of course there's been a clamp down there as

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Speaker 2: well with federal job cuts, immigration also having an impact.

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Speaker 2: And AI do we say productivity gains are driving leaner

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Speaker 2: staff levels, particularly in the tech sector and that's been

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Speaker 2: losing jobs for a year. Wages are actually strong long

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Speaker 2: term unemployment job jump there my every job was spelled

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Speaker 2: twenty five point seven weeks. It's the longest since December

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one. Basically, it's all contrast with recent data

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Speaker 2: decus the labor markets, finance footings that's not really happening,

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Speaker 2: and the consumers weakening as well, it seems retail sales

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Speaker 2: they were down point two percent January, So Mike, all

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Speaker 2: a bit tricky for the feed. Obviously we've got energy

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Speaker 2: prices rising as well, soak inflation. But markets, of course

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Speaker 2: their view, they've bought Ford expectations for rate cuts to

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Speaker 2: July and a greater chance of two cuts before year end.

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Speaker 1: Right, so where are we going with oil this week?

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Speaker 2: We said WEEKO is going to be a big swing factor,

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Speaker 2: and we've certainly got that in spade. So WTI crude

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Speaker 2: all up thirty five percent last week, up twelve percent

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Speaker 2: on Friday. It's now having nine was a barrel. Remember

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Speaker 2: it started around about sixty seven a barrel before the conflict.

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Speaker 2: We all know it's the straight up the moves. Twenty

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Speaker 2: percent of global all goes through there. That's not moving

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Speaker 2: millions of barrels being stuck there in the Gulf. So

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Speaker 2: you've got a right club cap by one point five

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Speaker 2: million barrels quate trimming output Qatar recons golf explorer is

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Speaker 2: going to have to declear force from dure. Some ships

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Speaker 2: might are getting through, but they're the ones identifying is

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Speaker 2: Chinese even when they're not. But obviously that's not a

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Speaker 2: trick that everyone can use. But yeah, ninety percent of

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Speaker 2: runs oil goes through China. It still needs revenues. That's

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Speaker 2: why they're probably getting a bit of a sight of through.

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Speaker 2: The Other issue, of course, as you mentioned, is insurance.

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Speaker 2: Now Trump has stepped up with this twenty billion dollar

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Speaker 2: reinsurance program. But yeah, we've got the monetary risk covered,

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Speaker 2: don't we, But the physical risk is still there, it seems,

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Speaker 2: so he's talked about the US Navy providing escorts, but

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Speaker 2: it's it's not really that practical. So before this all

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Speaker 2: kicked off yet around about sixty tankers using the straight

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Speaker 2: each day. The US Navy they've got over four hundred ships,

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Speaker 2: but only about fifty operation all of them are impoort

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Speaker 2: or on training, and they've got less than twenty in

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Speaker 2: the region. So yeah, near term it's looking a bit

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Speaker 2: tricky in terms of getting things moving all price. Of course,

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Speaker 2: that's going to have an impact for US. So I

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Speaker 2: see petrol prices are up and they're three bucks a

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Speaker 2: liter in some regions they could go high. Of course

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Speaker 2: we close marked and point in the Ministry of Business

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Speaker 2: and Innovation employments set over the weekend that were down

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Speaker 2: to around twenty five days of fuel supply. So of

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Speaker 2: course there will be other impacts as well, so mainfas

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Speaker 2: MD he said over the weekend, the price of everything

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Speaker 2: attached fuel will rise, including freight flights and every day.

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Speaker 2: Good so your fingers crossed. The Strait can get moving

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Speaker 2: so much.

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Speaker 1: Exactly now LIFTANSA, which was a very good result because

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Speaker 1: we can't get on a plane fast enough. How much

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Speaker 1: of the Middle East was in that announcement.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I absoute a bit of an out like the

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Speaker 2: actual result full result was strong, and we've been talked

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Speaker 2: about how global year travel was roaring. So four year

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Speaker 2: revenues up five percent to a record thirty nine point

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Speaker 2: six billion, hundred thirty five million passengers. Over the year

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Speaker 2: of praying profit that was up nineteen percent two billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: But year, they said a bit of an understanding, of course,

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Speaker 2: but the war in the Middle East has made the

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Speaker 2: outlook more and soon and heavy reliance on golf travel

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Speaker 2: is a geopolitical achilles Heel for the sector. So one

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Speaker 2: interesting observation they said that flights over the past week

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Speaker 2: to Asia and Africa have actually been surging, so they're

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Speaker 2: actually looking at putting on extra flights to destinations such

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Speaker 2: as Singapore, India, China and the light. But yeah, they're

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Speaker 2: certainly going to be feeling in their cost based like

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Speaker 2: a huge field of certain extent kennylines. But it certainly

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Speaker 2: doesn't remove the impact, just delays it a bit. So investors,

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Speaker 2: they erected last week Aline she is under prefer pressure.

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Speaker 2: Liftanswer itself was down about five five percent. United Airlines

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Speaker 2: and Britisher Ways owner were down seven percent in New Zealand,

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Speaker 2: down around eight percent last week. That's the lowest since

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Speaker 2: we shut the borders, so certainly having an impact. And

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Speaker 2: I suppose it also means Mike at some point as

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Speaker 2: a fees are going to rise and that's going to

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Speaker 2: start heading travelers as well.

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Speaker 1: And the numbers please.

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Speaker 2: So the US market actually had a pretty well all

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Speaker 2: things considered, given the conflicent. I think it's a bit

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Speaker 2: of a disconnect. Basically, I think investors the scenes as

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Speaker 2: a relatively short conflict and certainly not prolonged. So dal

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Speaker 2: Jones was down one percent four seven five oh one

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Speaker 2: on Friday, s and P one hundred P five hundred

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Speaker 2: was down one point three percent six seven forty, down

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Speaker 2: just two percent for the week. Naris dack two two

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Speaker 2: three eight seven, down one point six percent on Friday,

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Speaker 2: but down just one point two percent for the week.

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Speaker 2: Of companies like Microsoft on the up fort one hundred,

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Speaker 2: down one point two percent on Friday, nick A up

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Speaker 2: point six percent, ASEX two hundred down one percent. In

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Speaker 2: the X fifty, we were down point seven percent, down

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Speaker 2: one and a half percent for the week. Oil as

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Speaker 2: mentioned that was on the charge up twelve percent ninety spot,

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Speaker 2: ninety gold ninety bucks five one seven one. Currency markets Key,

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Speaker 2: we fairly fled against the US fifty eight point nine

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Speaker 2: eight against the Australian dollar, were slightly lower eighty three

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Speaker 2: point nine to three British pound fur even down point

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Speaker 2: three percent. Japanese gen ninety three point one, that was

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Speaker 2: up point two percent. This week, we've sue plenty going on.

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Speaker 2: We've got some manufacturing sales numbers, business PI visit arrivals

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Speaker 2: in New Zealand. We've got China trade data that will

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Speaker 2: be closely scrutinized. We've got inflation in the US GDP

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Speaker 2: as well. In consumer conference, we've got some company earnings

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Speaker 2: as well, Mike c Att, Peckard, Oracle, Adobe.

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Speaker 1: And Ali Baba.

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Speaker 2: Of course, all eyes are going to be on the

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Speaker 2: Middle East, and of course we let strake ITTs moment

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Speaker 2: go well.

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Speaker 1: Greg Smith from Generate Wealth and Key we save a

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Speaker 1: specialist for more from the Mic Asking Breakfast. Listen live

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Speaker 1: to news talks.

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Speaker 2: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast

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Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio