Speaker 1: Gilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. This
Speaker 1: week marks one year since the twenty twenty three election.
Speaker 1: That election saw Labour's historic majority cut in half and
Speaker 1: started weeks of negotiations between National Act and New Zealand. First,
Speaker 1: about the shape of the government marking the anniversary. A
Speaker 1: one used Varian poll shows thirty percent of respondents believe
Speaker 1: the country isn't better shape than a year ago, while
Speaker 1: forty percent think it's worse. That divisive nature has been
Speaker 1: a cornerstone of this government, but is that having any
Speaker 1: impact on their policies? And what about the other side
Speaker 1: of the aisle? Today on the Front Page, Police commentator
Speaker 1: Ben Thomas joins us to analyze the last year in politics.
Speaker 1: First off, Ben, one year since the election, what was
Speaker 1: your reaction at the time to those results?
Speaker 2: Well, I was actually the National Party election night celebration
Speaker 2: for part of that night, and what struck me there
Speaker 2: was that the early results which showed that you know,
Speaker 2: suggested National and Act would be able to form a
Speaker 2: government by themselves, which had been the goal you know,
Speaker 2: at the beginning of the campaign. Seemed to be in view,
Speaker 2: and as the night went on and the vote margin narrowed,
Speaker 2: but as the sort of libations flowed, I don't think
Speaker 2: it really sunk in until the next day, and then
Speaker 2: really fully when the special votes were counted that actually
Speaker 2: New Zealand First would be needed as well. So, you know,
Speaker 2: maybe things haven't gone as smoothly as I think two
Speaker 2: out of the three coalition parties would have expected. It's
Speaker 2: seven to fifteen pm on election night, but I think
Speaker 2: that given the hand that they've been dealt in terms
Speaker 2: of a genuine three way coalition between three quite different parties,
Speaker 2: they're holding together pretty well. A year on. I think
Speaker 2: Winston Peters certainly had his eye on the way the
Speaker 2: votes were going as election night progressed, and you know,
Speaker 2: I guess is quite confidence was probably vindicated the next day.
Speaker 2: But in a way it sort of set the tone
Speaker 2: for New Zealand First participation in this government in that
Speaker 2: it's been significantly less bombastic than New Zealand First is
Speaker 2: on the campaign trail. You know, it's been very content
Speaker 2: to play that sort of statesmanlike role that Winston Peters
Speaker 2: tends to when he is the Deputy Prime Minister as
Speaker 2: he has been before. And interestingly enough, a lot of
Speaker 2: the friction into of the sort of outward presenting face
Speaker 2: of the coalition is actually coming from the Act Party.
Speaker 1: Well, of course there are three parties in this coalition.
Speaker 1: How well do you think National Act in New Zealand
Speaker 1: First have actually worked together in the past year.
Speaker 2: Well, I think that if you were comparing it against
Speaker 2: how people might have expected they work together, you would
Speaker 2: say it's been a huge success. And part of that
Speaker 2: is the way in which they've chosen to work together,
Speaker 2: which is traditionally in New Zealand with MMP it's kind
Speaker 2: of forced compromise on government parties. You know, the smaller
Speaker 2: party might say we want this, in the larger party
Speaker 2: will say, how about we meet you halfway and have
Speaker 2: this here. It's what it's almost like, you know, sort
Speaker 2: of an hr team building exercise that Christopher Luxon might
Speaker 2: have had it in New Zealand, the kind of brainstorming
Speaker 2: session where there are no bad ideas and so if
Speaker 2: the minor party says something they want something, they say yes,
Speaker 2: and and then the next party says, well we want this,
Speaker 2: and you just kind of add together these promises. So
Speaker 2: what you get is this huge, bulging agenda of work,
Speaker 2: some of it slightly contradictory, some of it overlapping, but
Speaker 2: all the parties, you know, feel like they're getting what
Speaker 2: they want. And in terms of sticking to those agreements,
Speaker 2: you know, not necessarily the matter is outside them, but
Speaker 2: in terms of what is in those pretty big, pretty
Speaker 2: detailed coalition agreements, I think all the parties will be
Speaker 2: very happy with the progress that they've made.
Speaker 1: Which of the three parties do you think has performed
Speaker 1: better overall?
Speaker 2: Look, I think they've all performed well in terms of
Speaker 2: making this very unusual, you know, first genuine three party
Speaker 2: coalition government work. And I think that they all have
Speaker 2: things that they can show their supporters. I think they've
Speaker 2: all been allowed to claim credit for different things. If
Speaker 2: there was a loser out of the coalition so far,
Speaker 2: you would probably say that to some extent it's National. Still,
Speaker 2: the broad policy program going forward is one that is
Speaker 2: in line with what National campaigned on. I suppose the
Speaker 2: Prime Minister himself has this situation where he doesn't quite
Speaker 2: get to kind of lead as you know, the kind
Speaker 2: of top dog in the same way that we've seen
Speaker 2: in the past. You know, there very much is this
Speaker 2: sort of you know, government of equals. You know, he's
Speaker 2: first amongst equals with David Seymour and Winston Peters, and
Speaker 2: so he hasn't necessarily been able to stamp the sort
Speaker 2: of authority on that role. And you see you see
Speaker 2: that in the sort of continuing ratings, and there hasn't
Speaker 2: been a lot of movement in the polls. Ordinarily, a
Speaker 2: large party would expect that it would go up in
Speaker 2: government as people kind of got used to it in
Speaker 2: that position. Here, you know, there's been ups, downs, overs
Speaker 2: and unders, but we're basically around about where we were
Speaker 2: on election made a year ago and so on terms
Speaker 2: of in terms of what you might normally expect in government,
Speaker 2: you would say that National has not has not had
Speaker 2: the same success that it's two other partners have.
Speaker 1: Do you reckon there have been any standout ministers in
Speaker 1: this government so far?
Speaker 2: I think like all governments, you know, there will be
Speaker 2: a number of standout ministers who actually do sort of
Speaker 2: the bulk of the work, you know, and carry carry
Speaker 2: a lot of load in terms of those public facing
Speaker 2: things and those really important portfolios. You could count the standouts.
Speaker 2: Chris Bishop has been very good, very busy advancing a
Speaker 2: very clear agenda on infrastructure and housing and RMA reform.
Speaker 2: Simeon Brown has been you know, pretty busy, not maybe
Speaker 2: not quite as sort of innovative, but you know, busy
Speaker 2: getting the work done. Erica Stanford's been identified as a
Speaker 2: standout by a lot of people. Some extremely overdue sort
Speaker 2: of education reforms which seem to be handled pretty deftly
Speaker 2: right now, and you know, one of those things that
Speaker 2: really does you know, impact on a lot of voters' lives.
Speaker 2: You know, they really see it at the coal face.
Speaker 2: David Seymour, Look, he's been very effective, as he usually is,
Speaker 2: a lot of controversy around his Treaty Principles bill, not
Speaker 2: as much attention on his Ministry of Regulation, which I
Speaker 2: think might actually end up being one of the more
Speaker 2: important policy sort of policy additions of this government. You know,
Speaker 2: it's already sort of getting to work and really could
Speaker 2: you know, impro improve the quality of regulation which actually
Speaker 2: does touch a lot of people's lives. Nikola Willis I
Speaker 2: think has really grown as a retail politician. You know,
Speaker 2: her political skills are excellent. She's managed to be a
Speaker 2: sort of safe pair of hands and a very very
Speaker 2: trying circumstance, really Finance minister with structural deficits kind of
Speaker 2: handed down from the last government. You know. Winston Peters
Speaker 2: again very statesman like, always conducts himself well as Foreign
Speaker 2: Affairs Minister Shane Jones, I think is another surprise. Has
Speaker 2: often been criticized in the past for a bit of
Speaker 2: a low work rate, you know, except when he's sort
Speaker 2: of reading the dictionary out loud to people. But you know,
Speaker 2: he's been extremely busy and really kind of getting things done.
Speaker 2: The Fast Trek Approval's Bill is really his baby. I
Speaker 2: think that would have surprised a number of people that
Speaker 2: the energy that he's come into government with.
Speaker 1: The first few months of the coalition government was kind
Speaker 1: of like a slash and burn of sorts, right, It
Speaker 1: just felt like they were undoing everything labor done. How
Speaker 1: has that worked out for them?
Speaker 2: Well, you know, that was an easy criticism to make
Speaker 2: of them. But at the same time, you know, how
Speaker 2: do you introduce your policies if there are but these
Speaker 2: new ones that have just been put in place by
Speaker 2: a previous government. So you know, I think they would
Speaker 2: see it as just like a kind of controlled burning
Speaker 2: of the undergrowth. In the bush. You know, that feeds
Speaker 2: the nutrients into the soil and it creates a climate
Speaker 2: where actually there can be new growth. So get rid
Speaker 2: of the Natural and Built Environments Act, which they disagreed
Speaker 2: with three Waters, legislation, fair pay agreements, all these things
Speaker 2: that labor really spent a lot of time, you know,
Speaker 2: just getting across the line in a legislative sense, but
Speaker 2: didn't embed in any way into the kind of practical
Speaker 2: reality of government. And I think the ease with which
Speaker 2: that was done is something that this government has taken
Speaker 2: on board. So they're moving very quickly with a lot
Speaker 2: of their reforms. And actually, if you can compare you know,
Speaker 2: what they have, what they've done and completed in one
Speaker 2: year compared to say the previous government or actually most
Speaker 2: previous governments, it's been very busy.
Speaker 1: Indeed, what are the highlights view in terms of what
Speaker 1: the act, what the government's actually pushed through.
Speaker 2: Look I think in terms of the big, big things
Speaker 2: affecting New Zealand in the future, which is really where
Speaker 2: we have to look at. You know, they came in
Speaker 2: a pretty bad situation, the kind of in that COVID
Speaker 2: sort of hangover, where inflation was very high. The government
Speaker 2: government borrowing had really blown out, and you know, policy
Speaker 2: mistakes that just haven't been addressed in the past were
Speaker 2: really catching up to us. I think, you know, the
Speaker 2: changes in the education will be some of the most important.
Speaker 2: You know, the kind of novel idea of teaching children
Speaker 2: to read and do maths as a priority. And then
Speaker 2: I think, you know, as I said, the ministry of regulation,
Speaker 2: I think will actually end up being you know, really important.
Speaker 2: Governments talk about sort of putting in place a business
Speaker 2: friendly kind of environment, and there are so many little
Speaker 2: rules and regulations that trip people up, and they've never
Speaker 2: really been addressed in a serious manner before. It's always
Speaker 2: been kind of ad hoc or gimmicky. So I think,
Speaker 2: I think that's an important reform. Again. Chris Bishop, I
Speaker 2: think his his work in terms of reforming and in
Speaker 2: terms of trying to get in place of framework where
Speaker 2: we can actually you have sustainable and affordable delivery of
Speaker 2: the infrastructure we need in New Zealand, the things that
Speaker 2: this government wants to achieve, particularly from the national side,
Speaker 2: but also act I think it will be a little
Speaker 2: longer before we start seeing the results. And those are
Speaker 2: the things like really setting concrete targets and being smarter
Speaker 2: about how government money is spent, so everything you know,
Speaker 2: from getting into the departments and you know, making them
Speaker 2: rewrite their contractual expectations of third party providers, setting targets
Speaker 2: for our departments, for bureaucrats to work towards. The Social
Speaker 2: Investment Model, which you know is an attempt to take
Speaker 2: kind of big data and use that to really isolate
Speaker 2: and get better spending. Those are things that could be
Speaker 2: extremely significant, but we're not far enough along to really
Speaker 2: see that they've made a difference yet.
Speaker 1: Well, according to the latest one used, Varyan pohl Kiwis
Speaker 1: believe the country is in a better place than a
Speaker 1: year ago. Forty think it's worse. What do you make
Speaker 1: of those results, Well, that's.
Speaker 2: Not surprising at all. I mean we've had I think,
Speaker 2: you know, since October, we've had what three more the
Speaker 2: periods of negative growth, quarters of negative growth. Announced inflation
Speaker 2: is a little better under control, but there have been
Speaker 2: big rates hikes and insurance hikes as well. So you know,
Speaker 2: people will generally see, you know, how well the country
Speaker 2: is doing through that lens, rather than through the elegance
Speaker 2: of a policy solution that has been announced at a
Speaker 2: press conference. They'll think about their hip pocket, filling up
Speaker 2: the car, that sort of thing. And look, you know,
Speaker 2: I think the government's been pretty honest about that and
Speaker 2: upfront that that's not something that they can change overnight.
Speaker 2: No government can. What they can do is put in
Speaker 2: place the sort of building blocks so that when a
Speaker 2: recovery happens, you know, people can take advantage of that.
Speaker 2: So you know, they will have their fingers crossed that
Speaker 2: the economy, you know, starts heading up, you know, hope
Speaker 2: hopefully with interest rate cuts, text cuts and with sort
Speaker 2: of inflation back in a manageable sort of banned.
Speaker 1: When do you reckon the expiration data is when you
Speaker 1: stop blaming the last government in their books.
Speaker 2: Look, if John Key, who's Christopher Luxon's mentor, is to
Speaker 2: be believed somewhere in the order of seven to eight years,
Speaker 2: you know, look, I mean there's already a bit of
Speaker 2: an expiration date on it. Because because of New Zealand
Speaker 2: First's present in this government, they can never really talk
Speaker 2: about the twenty seventeen to twenty twenty three labor government.
Speaker 2: They can only talk about the twenty twenty to twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three labor government. So you know, a lot of
Speaker 2: damage was done in a very short time. If you
Speaker 2: listen to this government now. But yeah, looks suddenly you
Speaker 2: get away with it in the first term. People are
Speaker 2: willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.
Speaker 1: Generally, it's fair to say that the antagonism and backlash
Speaker 1: towards this government came fairly quickly. You had Maulti dam
Speaker 1: protesting across the country about a week after the government
Speaker 1: was actually sworn in. Where do you rank this government
Speaker 1: in terms of its divisiveness, I guess now, or is
Speaker 1: that all David Seymour and is Treaty Principle's Bill.
Speaker 2: No, look, I mean in terms of the divisiveness issue,
Speaker 2: particularly to do with the treaty and multi ground relationships.
Speaker 2: That's a function of that really kind of I guess
Speaker 2: you call it additive or inclusive coalition agreement style that
Speaker 2: they have, which is where rather than kind of promising
Speaker 2: on things piece by piece or issue by issue, they
Speaker 2: just said, actually, we'll just take everything and combine it together.
Speaker 2: So what you ended up with was when these coalition
Speaker 2: agreements went live, what you saw was just this ray
Speaker 2: of policies that were to do with Crown Maori relationships
Speaker 2: and the treaty and generally trying to roll back those
Speaker 2: kinds of things, everything from ruling out a non existent
Speaker 2: referendum to change the country's name to Tuna, to the
Speaker 2: Treaty Principle's Bill. But then you know there's all these
Speaker 2: other things that you know when you see them written
Speaker 2: on the page. You know, if you're Ei, if you're Maldi,
Speaker 2: you can't help but think, well, this is a bit,
Speaker 2: this is a bit of an attack. And look it
Speaker 2: has continued and we will continue the you know, even
Speaker 2: leaving aside the Treaty Principle's Bill, which is a bit
Speaker 2: of a red hearing because New Zealand First and National
Speaker 2: have said there's no way it will go into law.
Speaker 2: But New Zealand First Security commitment to a review of
Speaker 2: a treaty clauses in legislation. Now, those are those are
Speaker 2: rights that you know that a crew to Maori, and
Speaker 2: you know that exists now that the government is proposing
Speaker 2: to sort of you know, narrow down or get rid of.
Speaker 2: So I think you know, in this sense, in the
Speaker 2: Crown Maori relationship sense, you know, this is certainly the
Speaker 2: most regressive government for at least twenty.
Speaker 1: Years, and when looking back on the last year in
Speaker 1: terms of scandals, I guess it's been quite It's been
Speaker 1: on the lighter side. I mean, you've had ministers like
Speaker 1: Melissa Lee and Penny Simmons stripped of their portfolios for
Speaker 1: poor handling of them. You've got lux And paying back
Speaker 1: his living allowance quite early on after initially asserting that
Speaker 1: it was his right. And then there were other kind
Speaker 1: of contentious bills like the fast Track one that's obviously
Speaker 1: gone through and reversing the smoke free ban, things like that.
Speaker 1: But has this government handled these issues quite well? And
Speaker 1: would you agree that it's been quite light on terms
Speaker 1: of I would have I would have seen I would
Speaker 1: have put money on there being more scandals. Given the
Speaker 1: amount of first time ministers we've got in cabinet, you would.
Speaker 2: Normally get your first Yeah, you normally think Locke in
Speaker 2: the first real scandal that's going to need a resignation
Speaker 2: is somewhere between a year and eighteen months in. So
Speaker 2: they're actually trekking pretty well, you know. Yes, certainly some
Speaker 2: of the newer ministers are perhaps not as deft or
Speaker 2: as sure footed as some of their more experienced colleagues.
Speaker 2: But at the same time, yeah, no real smoking guns
Speaker 2: that have emerged that you know, kind of career ending. Now,
Speaker 2: obviously there's a bit of a buffer there, particularly for
Speaker 2: the smaller party ministers, in the sense that the Prime Minister,
Speaker 2: as a matter of political reality, can't unilaterally fire them.
Speaker 2: You know, if you were Penny Simmons and you were
Speaker 2: Melissa Lee particularly demoted from cabinet, yes, you might feel
Speaker 2: you're pretty hard done by if you looked over at
Speaker 2: Casey Costello for instance. And the fact of the matter
Speaker 2: there is that Luxon wanted to sort of you know,
Speaker 2: stampers authority, show that he's the actively managing CE. But
Speaker 2: he only can do that with his own ministers without
Speaker 2: sort of causing a bit of an incident.
Speaker 1: And looking ahead, we've got two years left of this
Speaker 1: coalition government until we get to the next election. Can
Speaker 1: you give us some of your predictions.
Speaker 2: Well, look, I think part of the reason that it's
Speaker 2: worked so well so far and I think this will
Speaker 2: probably carry them through to the second year. Through the
Speaker 2: second year, is that just those agendas that they agreed
Speaker 2: to because of tough negotiating by New Zealand First and Act,
Speaker 2: the agenda is so full that it will only be
Speaker 2: sort of black swan events or really unexpected things that
Speaker 2: happen where there will be significant disagreements between the parties
Speaker 2: about what they're they're doing a legislative sense, in a
Speaker 2: policy sense that will be in reaction to things. So
Speaker 2: I actually think that, you know, and you know if
Speaker 2: you also sort of think that, you know, idle hands
Speaker 2: make work for the devil. Everyone's very busy, you know,
Speaker 2: there's a lot to get on with, and I think
Speaker 2: that that's working in the government's favor as well politically.
Speaker 2: You know. Look, I think that they will be in
Speaker 2: a position where they will be able to show all
Speaker 2: of their respective supporters some pretty big wins in a
Speaker 2: year's time, you know, touch would but I think the
Speaker 2: economy will be performing much better, and that is always
Speaker 2: a tail wind for a government. So look, I think,
Speaker 2: as Christopher Luxen might say in a report to his board,
Speaker 2: there is plenty of upside for this government.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Ben. That's it for this episode
Speaker 1: of the Front Page. You can read more about today's
Speaker 1: stories and extensive music at enzeed Herald dot co dot z.
Speaker 1: The Front Page is produced by Ethan Siles with sound
Speaker 1: engineer Patti Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the front
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Speaker 1: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.