Speaker 1: Hilda.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The divided
Speaker 2: nature of our politics has been spotlighted once again. A
Speaker 2: fiery debate has seen Tabatti Mouldi's leaders suspended from Parliament
Speaker 2: in the harshest punishment ever handed down to a politician.
Speaker 2: It was a vote made along party lines, with the
Speaker 2: government parties voting in favor of the Privileges Committee recommendations.
Speaker 1: And the Left bloc voting against it, and.
Speaker 2: That split was highlighted once again by two polls with
Speaker 2: conflicting results showing who will win next year. Today on
Speaker 2: the Front Page, we're joined by Newstalk z B political
Speaker 2: editor Jason Walls to discuss the latest in politics, starting
Speaker 2: with a scandal that has hit the Prime Minister's office.
Speaker 2: First off, Jason, a staff investigation found the PM's former
Speaker 2: deputy Chief Press Secretary, Michael Forbes, allegedly recorded audio of
Speaker 2: sessions with Wellington's sex workers. Christopher Luxen was understandably fuming
Speaker 2: when he fronted media last week about it. He said
Speaker 2: there'd be a deep dive of investigation into the questions
Speaker 2: raised by the scandal.
Speaker 3: I have to say my sympathy is with the women
Speaker 3: who raised these allegations and were made to feel unsafe
Speaker 3: due to the actions of this person. I do want
Speaker 3: to acknowledge and thank the staff and the beehive in
Speaker 3: the Parliament who have worked alongside this individual and understandably
Speaker 3: have found the news upsetting and distressing, and I'm committed
Speaker 3: to ensuring that they have all of the support that
Speaker 3: they need. I have zero tolerance for any behavior that
Speaker 3: makes women or anyone feel unsafe, and this individual's conduct
Speaker 3: fell unacceptedly short of the standards that I expect from
Speaker 3: our people.
Speaker 1: What questions do you think this raises?
Speaker 4: Well, the number one question is why was the Prime
Speaker 4: Minister's office not informed that there was a police complaint
Speaker 4: laid against somebody that was applying for a job in
Speaker 4: the prime Minister's office. The Deputy Chief Press sect is
Speaker 4: an important role. They have access to a lot of information.
Speaker 4: They're sorting out how the government communicates with the public.
Speaker 4: So it's obviously of paramount importance that somebody like that
Speaker 4: can be trusted. And the fact that this wasn't elevated
Speaker 4: a as we now understand to then Police Commissioner Andy
Speaker 4: costa and then he was not able to give it
Speaker 4: to the beehive. Suggests that something has gone really wrong
Speaker 4: in the system here. The importance is that the Prime
Speaker 4: Minister's office needs to know about every part of a
Speaker 4: staff member that is applying for their office, because it's
Speaker 4: about safety of the information. I mean, it's not about
Speaker 4: the character of the person per se, but it's about
Speaker 4: if any bad actors are able to get any leverage
Speaker 4: on somebody that works in the Prime Minister's office, then
Speaker 4: that could be used for purposes which are not advantageous
Speaker 4: for the country. We could put it that way. So
Speaker 4: of course a's big issue that have been raised because
Speaker 4: of the fact that the Prime Minister's Office was not flagged.
Speaker 4: This issue was not flagged with them. Now it wasn't.
Speaker 4: It was never elevated the police. It was a complaint,
Speaker 4: no charges were laid. It's important to make that distinction.
Speaker 4: But still the fact that there were people within the
Speaker 4: government that were aware of the serious nature of the
Speaker 4: complaint and that did not get passed onto the Prime
Speaker 4: Minister's office, it shows that there has been a lapse
Speaker 4: in the system.
Speaker 1: To say the least, these types.
Speaker 2: Of scandals have the potential to be quite damaging for
Speaker 2: the party leader involved. Look at the Labour Party summer
Speaker 2: camp sex assault cases one example. Do you think this
Speaker 2: will have some kind of blowback for National or the
Speaker 2: Parliamentary services.
Speaker 4: Well, what it will do is it distracts from the
Speaker 4: message and it means that the things that the government
Speaker 4: want to be talking about, they won't be able to
Speaker 4: be talking about them because this scandal will follow them.
Speaker 4: I think people will quite rightly look at this and
Speaker 4: say it wasn't the prime minister's fault. He was never
Speaker 4: informed of this. But the problem is it's a fault
Speaker 4: somewhere in the government and the Prime Minister is ultimately
Speaker 4: responsible for that. And anytime you have any sort of
Speaker 4: allegations of sexual impropriety around politics or around politicians, it
Speaker 4: immediately becomes a scandal. And so there is really no
Speaker 4: way of avoiding something like this.
Speaker 2: I did see that he was pretty quick to say
Speaker 2: if he didn't resign, he would be asked to leave.
Speaker 2: That's something that famously he did not do recently, with
Speaker 2: Husking in particular, a would you.
Speaker 5: Have secked him if he hadn't offered to resign, Well,
Speaker 5: hypothetical he did resign. No, I know that, but just
Speaker 5: answer the question, well, would you have seck Well.
Speaker 3: He didn't meet the expectations of a minister, so was
Speaker 3: it a secable offense? Well, I think give him how
Speaker 3: clear we'd been on the first instance about why.
Speaker 5: Just answer the question. So this is why you get
Speaker 5: yourself reputationally in so much trouble. Would you have secked him?
Speaker 3: Yes or no. I could say he didn't meet the
Speaker 3: expectators I have ministers, so you would have secked him.
Speaker 3: I didn't need to because he.
Speaker 4: Resigned, and he copped a lot of criticism for that,
Speaker 4: and he eventually had to walk it back after days
Speaker 4: of bad media coverage on that one. But it was
Speaker 4: ultimately untenable. I mean, there is no way that he
Speaker 4: could have said anything else than he would have been
Speaker 4: sacked if he didn't resign. He did caveat by saying
Speaker 4: that there would be a short investigation because New Zealand's
Speaker 4: employment laws dictate that the reasons around firing somebody is
Speaker 4: a little bit more stringent than other countries in the world,
Speaker 4: so an investigation would have been needed, but as the
Speaker 4: Prime Minister said, it would have been short and he
Speaker 4: would have been fired.
Speaker 1: Moving on to another big story. You can only describe.
Speaker 2: The debate about debudy Maldi's suspension as chaotic.
Speaker 6: Why don't you put your brain into gear, get some
Speaker 6: words in your mouth and sat debating.
Speaker 4: You can only keep your head buried in the colonial
Speaker 4: sands of time for so long.
Speaker 7: Having had the first two minutes, he's never shut up
Speaker 7: ever since.
Speaker 8: I say, two members of the government gets an absolute scrap.
Speaker 1: What did you make of the debate?
Speaker 4: Well, unfortunately I was watching it from up here in
Speaker 4: Awakland because I was at the radio awards with you
Speaker 4: hard Luck on the front page. You're always the winner
Speaker 4: in my mind, now stop it. But it was watching
Speaker 4: from Afar, watching Parliament TV. You did get a sense
Speaker 4: of the emotion in the room. I haven't heard heckling
Speaker 4: like that in some time, and if you're hearing it
Speaker 4: on the internet live stream, it's probably about ten times
Speaker 4: louder in person. And the assistant speakers had to stop
Speaker 4: the debate a number of times because of the heckling. Now,
Speaker 4: ultimately the sentence passed down by Parliament, and it's important
Speaker 4: to say that parliament, because it was a vote by Parliament,
Speaker 4: not the government. Was that they would be suspended for
Speaker 4: twenty one days, that is Rawdi Waititi and Debbie Natti
Speaker 4: Warepacker with seven days for Hannah Rapati might be clark.
Speaker 4: But the opposition are affuming about this because they say,
Speaker 4: although it is a vote of parliament, it was the
Speaker 4: government parties that were the only one in support of
Speaker 4: the twenty one days So therefore is it really a
Speaker 4: vote of parliament if only the government parties are supporting
Speaker 4: it and everybody else is in opposition. And that's the
Speaker 4: lingering question here. But there were no surprises as to
Speaker 4: how it played out in the House. I mean, Winston
Speaker 4: Peters was had a bit of a shameful episode talking
Speaker 4: about this quote unquote scribbles on Araudi Whiteity's face. And
Speaker 4: this comes from the man that is talking about upholding
Speaker 4: parliamentary standards and how those standards have been slipping. And
Speaker 4: I think that he needs to take a good look
Speaker 4: in the mirror and ask himself who is it that's
Speaker 4: letting these standards slips, because something like that, despite the
Speaker 4: context of what's going on, is not acceptable in the House.
Speaker 7: The Mari Party are a bunch of extremists and Middle
Speaker 7: New Zealm and Middle New Zealm and the Mari world
Speaker 7: has had enough of them. In fact, in the pole,
Speaker 7: in the in the last pole, the last twenty four hours,
Speaker 7: the one that the one on the cowboy had who
Speaker 7: hates colonialism, the one that's shouting down there, well, the
Speaker 7: scribbles on his face, the god that got half theself.
Speaker 7: Oh Hangman's nick.
Speaker 1: Can't point of it. Well, it's both sides as well.
Speaker 2: Aytt held up a noose at one point, which was
Speaker 2: pretty out there. And like you say, Peters was the
Speaker 2: one decrying the lack of standards in the House only
Speaker 2: a few weeks ago. I guess the C word is
Speaker 2: crossing a line, but scribbles is okay.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean according to Winston Peters that must be
Speaker 4: the case. I mean it's very offensive. And imagine if
Speaker 4: it was a Pakihart politician saying it, you know, there'd
Speaker 4: be no end to the headlines. I mean, Winston gets
Speaker 4: away with quite a lot just because of the fact
Speaker 4: that he's been around for a long time, and people
Speaker 4: tend to say it's just Winston being Winston, but I think, yeah,
Speaker 4: Rahwiti has done some things in the House that have
Speaker 4: been very unparliamentary, as has Debbie referencing what is alleged
Speaker 4: to a being the gun signal or the gun hand
Speaker 4: gesture that she made it, David Seymour that she denies making.
Speaker 4: That you look at the footage, make up your own mind.
Speaker 4: All of these things are very unparliamentary, so you just
Speaker 4: need to really take a good look and you can't
Speaker 4: accuse other people of letting down the standards if you
Speaker 4: yourself as so often being the one that is letting
Speaker 4: them down yourself.
Speaker 1: What's the harshest punishment anyone's ever faced in terms of suspensions?
Speaker 1: Do you reckon? It's fair?
Speaker 4: It's a tough one, isn't it.
Speaker 2: It's tricky because you don't want to make a precedent.
Speaker 1: But also twenty one day.
Speaker 4: Twenty one days, Robert Muldoon got three and it was
Speaker 4: Robert Muldoon. You know, twenty one days is a long time.
Speaker 4: But from the Privileges Committee, well, i should say the
Speaker 4: National Act and New Zealand first members of the Privileges Committee.
Speaker 4: But essentially their line was that they tea party Marty
Speaker 4: have consistently time and time and again broken protocol, breached
Speaker 4: the privilege of not just the House but of the
Speaker 4: Privileges Committee. And something needed to be done. It couldn't
Speaker 4: just be a slap on the wrist, or else it
Speaker 4: would continue happening. So twenty one days was a shot
Speaker 4: across the bow. I mean that shot probably punctured the
Speaker 4: bow because it's more than just that. It's actually something
Speaker 4: that's severely going to impact Tea Party Marty. But at
Speaker 4: the end of the day, you know, twenty one days.
Speaker 4: But I guess the bright side to this, as if
Speaker 4: you could call it, that is for the next two
Speaker 4: weeks parliament's on recess, so it doesn't really matter anyway.
Speaker 4: It just essentially means there's one sitting week of Parliament
Speaker 4: where they're not going to be there. And frankly and
Speaker 4: Chris Bishop has made this point. TI Party Mary's absence
Speaker 4: in the House has been noted. They're absent a lot,
Speaker 4: so it might not even amount to being that much
Speaker 4: of an issue for the House. There other MP's are
Speaker 4: still there, they can still vote on things, and they
Speaker 4: can still give speeches. It's just that the three MP's
Speaker 4: or the two MP's by that time won't be able
Speaker 4: to be physically present.
Speaker 2: Do you reckon it was worth it for Tipati Marti though,
Speaker 2: because it was the Hakka heard around the world, it
Speaker 2: grabbed international headlines.
Speaker 1: That has to mean something, doesn't it.
Speaker 2: And quite frankly, a punishment this severe is only going
Speaker 2: to embolden their supporters.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, the downside is the fact that they
Speaker 4: don't get paid for twenty one days. But I would
Speaker 4: imagine if you're TI Party Mari, I mean, you have
Speaker 4: the coffers of your political party and that could be
Speaker 4: dug into to supplement the pay over that time. But
Speaker 4: you know, cost benefit and analysis on this one, how
Speaker 4: much money would it take to get a pr strategy
Speaker 4: that was as far reaching as what Tea Party Marty
Speaker 4: was managed to do. I mean, I was in Peru
Speaker 4: a couple of days after it happened for the EPEC
Speaker 4: summit and people there were talking about it, you know,
Speaker 4: and that's just sort of publicity that you can't buy.
Speaker 4: So on balance, if you're a Tea Party Marty strategist,
Speaker 4: you'd be saying this is victory.
Speaker 2: So in amongst all this chaos, we've had a couple
Speaker 2: of poles that are slightly contradicting TV and z's. One
Speaker 2: us Varian Research poll gave it to the coalition last
Speaker 2: week about twelve hours later are in Z's read research
Speaker 2: Pole went in the other direction, Labor Greens into putty
Speaker 2: Maori would have enough to win together.
Speaker 6: National is down two points on thirty four percent, a
Speaker 6: NOBS result after a NOBS budget, Labor takes a bigger four,
Speaker 6: down three on twenty nine no new points, with still
Speaker 6: no new policies. The Greens, though, after releasing its alternative budget,
Speaker 6: jumps up too points to twelve percent. The ACT Party
Speaker 6: meanwhile slides down one now on eight percent. But look
Speaker 6: who's on the up. New Zealand First now nick and
Speaker 6: neck with Act on eight.
Speaker 8: Percent right, So we have got National in this poll
Speaker 8: on thirty point seven points. That's down two point two
Speaker 8: on our last poll in March. Labor has jumped ahead
Speaker 8: of Nationals, so they're sitting on thirty three point two.
Speaker 8: That's a slight increase of zero point nine. New Zealand
Speaker 8: First is coming. They have bumped up one point nine.
Speaker 8: That puts them on nine point one points in this poll,
Speaker 8: while ACT has fallen two point eight down to six
Speaker 8: points six points. Now the Greens and to Party Marti
Speaker 8: they are both up. The Greens are up one point
Speaker 8: six points to eleven point six while to party, Marti
Speaker 8: has nudged up zero point five to five point five points.
Speaker 8: Of course, that's just above that five percent three Shold
Speaker 8: needed to return to parliament.
Speaker 2: First of all, isn't this a bit of a sign
Speaker 2: that political polls this far out from an election are
Speaker 2: a bit of a crack.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And what there's design to do is give a
Speaker 4: bit of a flavor of the electorate at that point
Speaker 4: in time. So the fact that things jump around isn't
Speaker 4: that surprising, the fact that we're in an MMP environment
Speaker 4: and the two results were actually relatively close, I mean
Speaker 4: they mirrored each other exactly the opposite way. But what
Speaker 4: it does show there were some levels of consistency in there.
Speaker 4: One of them was the Green Party. People actually liked
Speaker 4: their alternative budget. I mean that's said. It lumped us
Speaker 4: with eighty eight billion dollars of new taxes forty four
Speaker 4: billion dollars of new debt, but you know, people like
Speaker 4: the offering that it was free GP visits and a
Speaker 4: universal basic income for university students and people on the benefit.
Speaker 4: And Choe Swarbrick is probably seen through a lot of
Speaker 4: the noise and she'll be happy with these numbers, and
Speaker 4: it also shows that Winston Peters is riding high. I mean,
Speaker 4: if you look at where Winston usually is at this
Speaker 4: point in the electoral cycle, it's way lower. I mean
Speaker 4: we're looking at two or three percent. Now he's at
Speaker 4: eight and rising, and we're still eighteen months out from
Speaker 4: an election. Winston's vote tends to rise the closer we
Speaker 4: get to the election. Now he's not shackled with the
Speaker 4: burden of being deputy Prime minister, expect to see campaign
Speaker 4: Winston well underway.
Speaker 2: And looking at these numbers, neither side is really pulling
Speaker 2: ahead in a massive way. It all feels pretty even
Speaker 2: at the moment. Do you see either of the main
Speaker 2: parties breaking out in a big way, being able to
Speaker 2: gather on their own or is it going to be
Speaker 2: a really tight race next year?
Speaker 4: No, I don't think that's going to happen. I think
Speaker 4: we saw that with Jacinda Ardern once extraordinary circumstances with
Speaker 4: the COVID nineteen pandemic and this sort of rally around
Speaker 4: the flag mentality that happened at the same time. Unless
Speaker 4: there is a major national disaster and Chris Luxon knocks
Speaker 4: it out of the park or he really fumbles the
Speaker 4: bag I don't think we're going to see something like that.
Speaker 4: I think we've really starting to as a country mature
Speaker 4: into MMP and the way that it works. And that
Speaker 4: is a big question for Chris Hipkins because he's looking
Speaker 4: at Tea Party Marty right now. A lot of people
Speaker 4: do not like Tea Party Marty. They have their supporters.
Speaker 4: But if you're a left leaning voter, there is polling
Speaker 4: I've seen from David Farrier that suggests that if you're
Speaker 4: a right leaning voter and you're national voter, you tend
Speaker 4: to like the likes of Winston Peters and David Seymour
Speaker 4: even though you're giving your vote to the NATS. On
Speaker 4: the other side, if you're a labor voter, you tend
Speaker 4: to not like Chloe Swarbrick very much, and you really
Speaker 4: don't like Debbie Nadi Wapacker and at Awiti Waitititi. So
Speaker 4: he's going to have to deal with that going forward.
Speaker 4: And I think Matthew Houghton in his column on Friday
Speaker 4: made similar points about the idea that at some point
Speaker 4: Chris Hipkins is going to have to make a call
Speaker 4: about who potentially would be his deputy Prime minister. Would
Speaker 4: it be Debbie, would it be RAUDI, would it be
Speaker 4: Chloe or would it be Matama? And I think there
Speaker 4: are a lot of voters that would look at that
Speaker 4: and say that's not my cup of tea. But if
Speaker 4: you're looking at the other side and you've already seen
Speaker 4: three years where the coalition government so far has held
Speaker 4: it together, there hasn't been anything. You know, there's been
Speaker 4: wobbles along the way, but there hasn't been anything too
Speaker 4: majorly in terms of bust ups between the big three.
Speaker 1: Do you reckon Chris Hipkins has the chops?
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I do. I think that he's a good communicator.
Speaker 4: I think that he's a good leader. It takes a
Speaker 4: special kind of politician to be able to lead the
Speaker 4: opposition in its first after government. There has been relatively
Speaker 4: little infighting. Even if there is, we haven't heard about.
Speaker 4: It is a really good sign for him. And he's
Speaker 4: very good in the House. He has all the markings
Speaker 4: of a prime minister, and he was a prime minister
Speaker 4: for about six months. He probably chomping at the bit
Speaker 4: together a long.
Speaker 1: Ago this time.
Speaker 2: And Jason, we're halfway through this term of parliament. How
Speaker 2: do you think it's gone so far? And do you
Speaker 2: have any predictions for the second half of the year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I think if you're looking at it from
Speaker 4: Chris Luckson's perspective, you'd be probably optimistic about how it's
Speaker 4: been so far. I mean, I think one of the
Speaker 4: great things that the Prime Minister was able to do
Speaker 4: was this coalition agreement. I think it's one of the
Speaker 4: great political master strokes that we've seen in some time.
Speaker 4: Getting three parties around the coalition table was an absolute doozy.
Speaker 4: And the fact that he's also allowed those coalition partners
Speaker 4: to continue to be their individual parties. We're not seeing
Speaker 4: some gray lump of a politician that David Seymour has become,
Speaker 4: not stepping outside the line, afraid of saying something that
Speaker 4: might offend the people that hold the Cabinet manual very tight.
Speaker 4: He's still David Seymour, He's still got his personality in
Speaker 4: the scene with Winston Peters, and we see that reflected
Speaker 4: in the polls. I mean, there's a reason, as I
Speaker 4: was saying before, Winston Peters is still sitting at about
Speaker 4: eight percent, where in other years it's been closer to two.
Speaker 4: He's been allowed to be Winston and Luxon has allowed
Speaker 4: him to be Winston because he knows when we come
Speaker 4: to the next election, he needs to form a coalition
Speaker 4: and he needs to have the numbers across the House,
Speaker 4: not just within national Thanks for joining us, Jason anytime.
Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
Speaker 2: at enzed Herald dot co dot nz. The Front Page
Speaker 2: is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is
Speaker 2: also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The
Speaker 2: Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,
Speaker 2: and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.