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Speaker 1: Hilda.

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Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The divided

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Speaker 2: nature of our politics has been spotlighted once again. A

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Speaker 2: fiery debate has seen Tabatti Mouldi's leaders suspended from Parliament

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Speaker 2: in the harshest punishment ever handed down to a politician.

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Speaker 2: It was a vote made along party lines, with the

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Speaker 2: government parties voting in favor of the Privileges Committee recommendations.

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Speaker 1: And the Left bloc voting against it, and.

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Speaker 2: That split was highlighted once again by two polls with

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Speaker 2: conflicting results showing who will win next year. Today on

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Speaker 2: the Front Page, we're joined by Newstalk z B political

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Speaker 2: editor Jason Walls to discuss the latest in politics, starting

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Speaker 2: with a scandal that has hit the Prime Minister's office.

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Speaker 2: First off, Jason, a staff investigation found the PM's former

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Speaker 2: deputy Chief Press Secretary, Michael Forbes, allegedly recorded audio of

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Speaker 2: sessions with Wellington's sex workers. Christopher Luxen was understandably fuming

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Speaker 2: when he fronted media last week about it. He said

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Speaker 2: there'd be a deep dive of investigation into the questions

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Speaker 2: raised by the scandal.

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Speaker 3: I have to say my sympathy is with the women

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Speaker 3: who raised these allegations and were made to feel unsafe

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Speaker 3: due to the actions of this person. I do want

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Speaker 3: to acknowledge and thank the staff and the beehive in

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Speaker 3: the Parliament who have worked alongside this individual and understandably

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Speaker 3: have found the news upsetting and distressing, and I'm committed

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Speaker 3: to ensuring that they have all of the support that

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Speaker 3: they need. I have zero tolerance for any behavior that

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Speaker 3: makes women or anyone feel unsafe, and this individual's conduct

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Speaker 3: fell unacceptedly short of the standards that I expect from

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Speaker 3: our people.

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Speaker 1: What questions do you think this raises?

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Speaker 4: Well, the number one question is why was the Prime

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Speaker 4: Minister's office not informed that there was a police complaint

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Speaker 4: laid against somebody that was applying for a job in

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Speaker 4: the prime Minister's office. The Deputy Chief Press sect is

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Speaker 4: an important role. They have access to a lot of information.

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Speaker 4: They're sorting out how the government communicates with the public.

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Speaker 4: So it's obviously of paramount importance that somebody like that

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Speaker 4: can be trusted. And the fact that this wasn't elevated

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Speaker 4: a as we now understand to then Police Commissioner Andy

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Speaker 4: costa and then he was not able to give it

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Speaker 4: to the beehive. Suggests that something has gone really wrong

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Speaker 4: in the system here. The importance is that the Prime

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Speaker 4: Minister's office needs to know about every part of a

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Speaker 4: staff member that is applying for their office, because it's

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Speaker 4: about safety of the information. I mean, it's not about

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Speaker 4: the character of the person per se, but it's about

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Speaker 4: if any bad actors are able to get any leverage

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Speaker 4: on somebody that works in the Prime Minister's office, then

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Speaker 4: that could be used for purposes which are not advantageous

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Speaker 4: for the country. We could put it that way. So

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Speaker 4: of course a's big issue that have been raised because

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Speaker 4: of the fact that the Prime Minister's Office was not flagged.

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Speaker 4: This issue was not flagged with them. Now it wasn't.

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Speaker 4: It was never elevated the police. It was a complaint,

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Speaker 4: no charges were laid. It's important to make that distinction.

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Speaker 4: But still the fact that there were people within the

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Speaker 4: government that were aware of the serious nature of the

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Speaker 4: complaint and that did not get passed onto the Prime

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Speaker 4: Minister's office, it shows that there has been a lapse

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Speaker 4: in the system.

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Speaker 1: To say the least, these types.

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Speaker 2: Of scandals have the potential to be quite damaging for

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Speaker 2: the party leader involved. Look at the Labour Party summer

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Speaker 2: camp sex assault cases one example. Do you think this

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Speaker 2: will have some kind of blowback for National or the

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Speaker 2: Parliamentary services.

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Speaker 4: Well, what it will do is it distracts from the

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Speaker 4: message and it means that the things that the government

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Speaker 4: want to be talking about, they won't be able to

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Speaker 4: be talking about them because this scandal will follow them.

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Speaker 4: I think people will quite rightly look at this and

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Speaker 4: say it wasn't the prime minister's fault. He was never

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Speaker 4: informed of this. But the problem is it's a fault

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Speaker 4: somewhere in the government and the Prime Minister is ultimately

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Speaker 4: responsible for that. And anytime you have any sort of

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Speaker 4: allegations of sexual impropriety around politics or around politicians, it

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Speaker 4: immediately becomes a scandal. And so there is really no

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Speaker 4: way of avoiding something like this.

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Speaker 2: I did see that he was pretty quick to say

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Speaker 2: if he didn't resign, he would be asked to leave.

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Speaker 2: That's something that famously he did not do recently, with

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Speaker 2: Husking in particular, a would you.

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Speaker 5: Have secked him if he hadn't offered to resign, Well,

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Speaker 5: hypothetical he did resign. No, I know that, but just

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Speaker 5: answer the question, well, would you have seck Well.

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Speaker 3: He didn't meet the expectations of a minister, so was

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Speaker 3: it a secable offense? Well, I think give him how

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Speaker 3: clear we'd been on the first instance about why.

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Speaker 5: Just answer the question. So this is why you get

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Speaker 5: yourself reputationally in so much trouble. Would you have secked him?

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Speaker 3: Yes or no. I could say he didn't meet the

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Speaker 3: expectators I have ministers, so you would have secked him.

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Speaker 3: I didn't need to because he.

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Speaker 4: Resigned, and he copped a lot of criticism for that,

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Speaker 4: and he eventually had to walk it back after days

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Speaker 4: of bad media coverage on that one. But it was

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Speaker 4: ultimately untenable. I mean, there is no way that he

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Speaker 4: could have said anything else than he would have been

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Speaker 4: sacked if he didn't resign. He did caveat by saying

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Speaker 4: that there would be a short investigation because New Zealand's

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Speaker 4: employment laws dictate that the reasons around firing somebody is

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Speaker 4: a little bit more stringent than other countries in the world,

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Speaker 4: so an investigation would have been needed, but as the

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Speaker 4: Prime Minister said, it would have been short and he

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Speaker 4: would have been fired.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to another big story. You can only describe.

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Speaker 2: The debate about debudy Maldi's suspension as chaotic.

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Speaker 6: Why don't you put your brain into gear, get some

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Speaker 6: words in your mouth and sat debating.

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Speaker 4: You can only keep your head buried in the colonial

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Speaker 4: sands of time for so long.

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Speaker 7: Having had the first two minutes, he's never shut up

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Speaker 7: ever since.

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Speaker 8: I say, two members of the government gets an absolute scrap.

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Speaker 1: What did you make of the debate?

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Speaker 4: Well, unfortunately I was watching it from up here in

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Speaker 4: Awakland because I was at the radio awards with you

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Speaker 4: hard Luck on the front page. You're always the winner

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Speaker 4: in my mind, now stop it. But it was watching

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Speaker 4: from Afar, watching Parliament TV. You did get a sense

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Speaker 4: of the emotion in the room. I haven't heard heckling

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Speaker 4: like that in some time, and if you're hearing it

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Speaker 4: on the internet live stream, it's probably about ten times

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Speaker 4: louder in person. And the assistant speakers had to stop

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Speaker 4: the debate a number of times because of the heckling. Now,

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Speaker 4: ultimately the sentence passed down by Parliament, and it's important

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Speaker 4: to say that parliament, because it was a vote by Parliament,

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Speaker 4: not the government. Was that they would be suspended for

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Speaker 4: twenty one days, that is Rawdi Waititi and Debbie Natti

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Speaker 4: Warepacker with seven days for Hannah Rapati might be clark.

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Speaker 4: But the opposition are affuming about this because they say,

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Speaker 4: although it is a vote of parliament, it was the

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Speaker 4: government parties that were the only one in support of

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Speaker 4: the twenty one days So therefore is it really a

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Speaker 4: vote of parliament if only the government parties are supporting

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Speaker 4: it and everybody else is in opposition. And that's the

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Speaker 4: lingering question here. But there were no surprises as to

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Speaker 4: how it played out in the House. I mean, Winston

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Speaker 4: Peters was had a bit of a shameful episode talking

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Speaker 4: about this quote unquote scribbles on Araudi Whiteity's face. And

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Speaker 4: this comes from the man that is talking about upholding

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Speaker 4: parliamentary standards and how those standards have been slipping. And

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Speaker 4: I think that he needs to take a good look

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Speaker 4: in the mirror and ask himself who is it that's

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Speaker 4: letting these standards slips, because something like that, despite the

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Speaker 4: context of what's going on, is not acceptable in the House.

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Speaker 7: The Mari Party are a bunch of extremists and Middle

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Speaker 7: New Zealm and Middle New Zealm and the Mari world

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Speaker 7: has had enough of them. In fact, in the pole,

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Speaker 7: in the in the last pole, the last twenty four hours,

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Speaker 7: the one that the one on the cowboy had who

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Speaker 7: hates colonialism, the one that's shouting down there, well, the

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Speaker 7: scribbles on his face, the god that got half theself.

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Speaker 7: Oh Hangman's nick.

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Speaker 1: Can't point of it. Well, it's both sides as well.

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Speaker 2: Aytt held up a noose at one point, which was

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Speaker 2: pretty out there. And like you say, Peters was the

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Speaker 2: one decrying the lack of standards in the House only

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Speaker 2: a few weeks ago. I guess the C word is

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Speaker 2: crossing a line, but scribbles is okay.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean according to Winston Peters that must be

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Speaker 4: the case. I mean it's very offensive. And imagine if

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Speaker 4: it was a Pakihart politician saying it, you know, there'd

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Speaker 4: be no end to the headlines. I mean, Winston gets

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Speaker 4: away with quite a lot just because of the fact

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Speaker 4: that he's been around for a long time, and people

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Speaker 4: tend to say it's just Winston being Winston, but I think, yeah,

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Speaker 4: Rahwiti has done some things in the House that have

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Speaker 4: been very unparliamentary, as has Debbie referencing what is alleged

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Speaker 4: to a being the gun signal or the gun hand

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Speaker 4: gesture that she made it, David Seymour that she denies making.

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Speaker 4: That you look at the footage, make up your own mind.

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Speaker 4: All of these things are very unparliamentary, so you just

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Speaker 4: need to really take a good look and you can't

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Speaker 4: accuse other people of letting down the standards if you

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Speaker 4: yourself as so often being the one that is letting

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Speaker 4: them down yourself.

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Speaker 1: What's the harshest punishment anyone's ever faced in terms of suspensions?

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Speaker 1: Do you reckon? It's fair?

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Speaker 4: It's a tough one, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: It's tricky because you don't want to make a precedent.

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Speaker 1: But also twenty one day.

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Speaker 4: Twenty one days, Robert Muldoon got three and it was

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Speaker 4: Robert Muldoon. You know, twenty one days is a long time.

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Speaker 4: But from the Privileges Committee, well, i should say the

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Speaker 4: National Act and New Zealand first members of the Privileges Committee.

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Speaker 4: But essentially their line was that they tea party Marty

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Speaker 4: have consistently time and time and again broken protocol, breached

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Speaker 4: the privilege of not just the House but of the

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Speaker 4: Privileges Committee. And something needed to be done. It couldn't

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Speaker 4: just be a slap on the wrist, or else it

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Speaker 4: would continue happening. So twenty one days was a shot

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Speaker 4: across the bow. I mean that shot probably punctured the

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Speaker 4: bow because it's more than just that. It's actually something

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Speaker 4: that's severely going to impact Tea Party Marty. But at

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Speaker 4: the end of the day, you know, twenty one days.

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Speaker 4: But I guess the bright side to this, as if

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Speaker 4: you could call it, that is for the next two

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Speaker 4: weeks parliament's on recess, so it doesn't really matter anyway.

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Speaker 4: It just essentially means there's one sitting week of Parliament

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Speaker 4: where they're not going to be there. And frankly and

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Speaker 4: Chris Bishop has made this point. TI Party Mary's absence

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Speaker 4: in the House has been noted. They're absent a lot,

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Speaker 4: so it might not even amount to being that much

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Speaker 4: of an issue for the House. There other MP's are

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Speaker 4: still there, they can still vote on things, and they

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Speaker 4: can still give speeches. It's just that the three MP's

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Speaker 4: or the two MP's by that time won't be able

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Speaker 4: to be physically present.

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Speaker 2: Do you reckon it was worth it for Tipati Marti though,

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Speaker 2: because it was the Hakka heard around the world, it

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Speaker 2: grabbed international headlines.

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Speaker 1: That has to mean something, doesn't it.

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Speaker 2: And quite frankly, a punishment this severe is only going

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Speaker 2: to embolden their supporters.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, the downside is the fact that they

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Speaker 4: don't get paid for twenty one days. But I would

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Speaker 4: imagine if you're TI Party Mari, I mean, you have

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Speaker 4: the coffers of your political party and that could be

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Speaker 4: dug into to supplement the pay over that time. But

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Speaker 4: you know, cost benefit and analysis on this one, how

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Speaker 4: much money would it take to get a pr strategy

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Speaker 4: that was as far reaching as what Tea Party Marty

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Speaker 4: was managed to do. I mean, I was in Peru

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Speaker 4: a couple of days after it happened for the EPEC

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Speaker 4: summit and people there were talking about it, you know,

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Speaker 4: and that's just sort of publicity that you can't buy.

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Speaker 4: So on balance, if you're a Tea Party Marty strategist,

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Speaker 4: you'd be saying this is victory.

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Speaker 2: So in amongst all this chaos, we've had a couple

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Speaker 2: of poles that are slightly contradicting TV and z's. One

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Speaker 2: us Varian Research poll gave it to the coalition last

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Speaker 2: week about twelve hours later are in Z's read research

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Speaker 2: Pole went in the other direction, Labor Greens into putty

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Speaker 2: Maori would have enough to win together.

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Speaker 6: National is down two points on thirty four percent, a

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Speaker 6: NOBS result after a NOBS budget, Labor takes a bigger four,

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Speaker 6: down three on twenty nine no new points, with still

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Speaker 6: no new policies. The Greens, though, after releasing its alternative budget,

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Speaker 6: jumps up too points to twelve percent. The ACT Party

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Speaker 6: meanwhile slides down one now on eight percent. But look

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Speaker 6: who's on the up. New Zealand First now nick and

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Speaker 6: neck with Act on eight.

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Speaker 8: Percent right, So we have got National in this poll

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Speaker 8: on thirty point seven points. That's down two point two

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Speaker 8: on our last poll in March. Labor has jumped ahead

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Speaker 8: of Nationals, so they're sitting on thirty three point two.

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Speaker 8: That's a slight increase of zero point nine. New Zealand

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Speaker 8: First is coming. They have bumped up one point nine.

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Speaker 8: That puts them on nine point one points in this poll,

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Speaker 8: while ACT has fallen two point eight down to six

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Speaker 8: points six points. Now the Greens and to Party Marti

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Speaker 8: they are both up. The Greens are up one point

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Speaker 8: six points to eleven point six while to party, Marti

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Speaker 8: has nudged up zero point five to five point five points.

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Speaker 8: Of course, that's just above that five percent three Shold

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Speaker 8: needed to return to parliament.

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Speaker 2: First of all, isn't this a bit of a sign

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Speaker 2: that political polls this far out from an election are

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Speaker 2: a bit of a crack.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And what there's design to do is give a

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Speaker 4: bit of a flavor of the electorate at that point

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Speaker 4: in time. So the fact that things jump around isn't

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Speaker 4: that surprising, the fact that we're in an MMP environment

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Speaker 4: and the two results were actually relatively close, I mean

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Speaker 4: they mirrored each other exactly the opposite way. But what

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Speaker 4: it does show there were some levels of consistency in there.

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Speaker 4: One of them was the Green Party. People actually liked

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Speaker 4: their alternative budget. I mean that's said. It lumped us

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Speaker 4: with eighty eight billion dollars of new taxes forty four

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Speaker 4: billion dollars of new debt, but you know, people like

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Speaker 4: the offering that it was free GP visits and a

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Speaker 4: universal basic income for university students and people on the benefit.

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Speaker 4: And Choe Swarbrick is probably seen through a lot of

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Speaker 4: the noise and she'll be happy with these numbers, and

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Speaker 4: it also shows that Winston Peters is riding high. I mean,

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Speaker 4: if you look at where Winston usually is at this

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Speaker 4: point in the electoral cycle, it's way lower. I mean

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Speaker 4: we're looking at two or three percent. Now he's at

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Speaker 4: eight and rising, and we're still eighteen months out from

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Speaker 4: an election. Winston's vote tends to rise the closer we

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Speaker 4: get to the election. Now he's not shackled with the

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Speaker 4: burden of being deputy Prime minister, expect to see campaign

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Speaker 4: Winston well underway.

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Speaker 2: And looking at these numbers, neither side is really pulling

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Speaker 2: ahead in a massive way. It all feels pretty even

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Speaker 2: at the moment. Do you see either of the main

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Speaker 2: parties breaking out in a big way, being able to

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Speaker 2: gather on their own or is it going to be

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Speaker 2: a really tight race next year?

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Speaker 4: No, I don't think that's going to happen. I think

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Speaker 4: we saw that with Jacinda Ardern once extraordinary circumstances with

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Speaker 4: the COVID nineteen pandemic and this sort of rally around

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Speaker 4: the flag mentality that happened at the same time. Unless

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Speaker 4: there is a major national disaster and Chris Luxon knocks

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Speaker 4: it out of the park or he really fumbles the

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Speaker 4: bag I don't think we're going to see something like that.

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Speaker 4: I think we've really starting to as a country mature

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Speaker 4: into MMP and the way that it works. And that

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Speaker 4: is a big question for Chris Hipkins because he's looking

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Speaker 4: at Tea Party Marty right now. A lot of people

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Speaker 4: do not like Tea Party Marty. They have their supporters.

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Speaker 4: But if you're a left leaning voter, there is polling

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Speaker 4: I've seen from David Farrier that suggests that if you're

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Speaker 4: a right leaning voter and you're national voter, you tend

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Speaker 4: to like the likes of Winston Peters and David Seymour

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Speaker 4: even though you're giving your vote to the NATS. On

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Speaker 4: the other side, if you're a labor voter, you tend

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Speaker 4: to not like Chloe Swarbrick very much, and you really

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Speaker 4: don't like Debbie Nadi Wapacker and at Awiti Waitititi. So

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Speaker 4: he's going to have to deal with that going forward.

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Speaker 4: And I think Matthew Houghton in his column on Friday

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Speaker 4: made similar points about the idea that at some point

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Speaker 4: Chris Hipkins is going to have to make a call

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Speaker 4: about who potentially would be his deputy Prime minister. Would

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Speaker 4: it be Debbie, would it be RAUDI, would it be

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Speaker 4: Chloe or would it be Matama? And I think there

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Speaker 4: are a lot of voters that would look at that

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Speaker 4: and say that's not my cup of tea. But if

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Speaker 4: you're looking at the other side and you've already seen

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Speaker 4: three years where the coalition government so far has held

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Speaker 4: it together, there hasn't been anything. You know, there's been

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Speaker 4: wobbles along the way, but there hasn't been anything too

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Speaker 4: majorly in terms of bust ups between the big three.

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Speaker 1: Do you reckon Chris Hipkins has the chops?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I do. I think that he's a good communicator.

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Speaker 4: I think that he's a good leader. It takes a

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Speaker 4: special kind of politician to be able to lead the

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Speaker 4: opposition in its first after government. There has been relatively

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Speaker 4: little infighting. Even if there is, we haven't heard about.

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Speaker 4: It is a really good sign for him. And he's

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Speaker 4: very good in the House. He has all the markings

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Speaker 4: of a prime minister, and he was a prime minister

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Speaker 4: for about six months. He probably chomping at the bit

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Speaker 4: together a long.

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Speaker 1: Ago this time.

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Speaker 2: And Jason, we're halfway through this term of parliament. How

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Speaker 2: do you think it's gone so far? And do you

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Speaker 2: have any predictions for the second half of the year.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I think if you're looking at it from

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Speaker 4: Chris Luckson's perspective, you'd be probably optimistic about how it's

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Speaker 4: been so far. I mean, I think one of the

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Speaker 4: great things that the Prime Minister was able to do

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Speaker 4: was this coalition agreement. I think it's one of the

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Speaker 4: great political master strokes that we've seen in some time.

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Speaker 4: Getting three parties around the coalition table was an absolute doozy.

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Speaker 4: And the fact that he's also allowed those coalition partners

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Speaker 4: to continue to be their individual parties. We're not seeing

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Speaker 4: some gray lump of a politician that David Seymour has become,

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Speaker 4: not stepping outside the line, afraid of saying something that

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Speaker 4: might offend the people that hold the Cabinet manual very tight.

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Speaker 4: He's still David Seymour, He's still got his personality in

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Speaker 4: the scene with Winston Peters, and we see that reflected

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Speaker 4: in the polls. I mean, there's a reason, as I

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Speaker 4: was saying before, Winston Peters is still sitting at about

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Speaker 4: eight percent, where in other years it's been closer to two.

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Speaker 4: He's been allowed to be Winston and Luxon has allowed

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Speaker 4: him to be Winston because he knows when we come

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Speaker 4: to the next election, he needs to form a coalition

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Speaker 4: and he needs to have the numbers across the House,

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Speaker 4: not just within national Thanks for joining us, Jason anytime.

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Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You

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Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

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Speaker 2: at enzed Herald dot co dot nz. The Front Page

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Speaker 2: is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is

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Speaker 2: also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The

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Speaker 2: Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 2: and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.