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Speaker 1: Joining me now is Shane Solely from Harbord Asset Management.

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Speaker 1: How are you, Shane? Hang on, I've got a fine chant.

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Speaker 1: I've got it all the way to the top. Here

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Speaker 1: here he is. That was my problem before, Shane.

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Speaker 2: How are you? Yeah, well you're a Francisco and really

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Speaker 2: well yourself.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good, thank you. Apologies. I was in it was

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Speaker 1: in a text queue there and I missed you at

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Speaker 1: the top. Now tell me. The Reserve Bank's next monetary

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Speaker 1: policy statement is due on Wednesday and it's widely expected

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Speaker 1: to keep the cash rate on hold. Is that right?

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Speaker 2: That's right, that's right, that's right. And today we've had

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Speaker 2: this injured a shadow board which is made up of

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Speaker 2: nine private sector economists, business people, academic so they've come

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Speaker 2: out and said, you know what, this grows sling is

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Speaker 2: a bit of slacking. The labor market place is falling back,

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Speaker 2: but not enough in their opinion for the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: and you yelling to start cutting rates. But interesting, there's

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Speaker 2: a couple of bit of contention in the group. There

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Speaker 2: is several members thinking that early next year it needs

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Speaker 2: to happen. In one board memberk she said, I should

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Speaker 2: be cutting now. So we're getting closer, and I think

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Speaker 2: interest rate market, so starting to think about it, you know,

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Speaker 2: the members when most people in the market, I think

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Speaker 2: about cuts, and if we look forward to July next year,

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Speaker 2: about one percy that cuts baked. So it's a little

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Speaker 2: bit of tough times for borrowers to come. But getting

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Speaker 2: near a turning point.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps we have been well forewarned about that though, haven't

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Speaker 1: we shame? I mean a lot of people are thinking

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Speaker 1: it's going to be sort of early twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Even, Yeah, and that's right. And so what we're seeing

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Speaker 2: globally is central banks getting to the end. They can

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Speaker 2: see that the medicine of higher interest rates is working,

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Speaker 2: but they just want to see it really get on

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Speaker 2: top of inflation. And so I think if you're a

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Speaker 2: central banker, you're going to wait. You're going to wait

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Speaker 2: for things to get particularly the heat coming out of inflation.

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Speaker 2: So but the economy is really coming down hard, we

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Speaker 2: will notice, we can see it. And that's going to

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Speaker 2: what's lead is going to lead this cutting cycle.

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Speaker 1: Do you think the bank might indicate a bit more

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Speaker 1: regarding the timing of any potential cut.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, great question for Jess, because I think this is

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Speaker 2: a thinking about thinking about where we might be thinking

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Speaker 2: about thinking about cutting rates. That is something that is

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Speaker 2: probably not necessarily baked in to capital markets, not into

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Speaker 2: infestrate full guys. And that's what we'll all be looking

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Speaker 2: for as a vest Is in the next few days.

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Speaker 2: Is on Wednesdays, there's some Hey, we're thinking about it.

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Speaker 2: We're starting to see that tighter interest rates, the restraint

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Speaker 2: on availability didn't really start to hammer home.

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Speaker 1: Contact Energy's share price took ahead today.

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Speaker 2: What happened, Jane, Yeah, Look, Contact has been a great

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Speaker 2: story from New Zealand and vests. They've done a good

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Speaker 2: job of growing their generation capability of the literacy generation.

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Speaker 2: But they're coming out today and cut their earnings for

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Speaker 2: GUS and it really comes down to a little bit

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Speaker 2: of technical stuff around this new portfolio of particularly geofilmal generation,

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Speaker 2: just some slow down in terms of when the new

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Speaker 2: generation geo thermal plant comes on. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: they don't have access to the gas that used to

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Speaker 2: be used to fill this generating requirements, so they've said

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Speaker 2: we've got to go buy electricity in the open market.

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Speaker 2: It's going to cost us more because we don't have

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Speaker 2: the GFM or plants we've got some outages coming through

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Speaker 2: and we just can't get excess to the guests, so

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Speaker 2: they've trimmed. Thereforecas On earning to put of a surprise.

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Speaker 2: Haven't seen next a little while from context, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: share price ended up down four percent today at eight

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Speaker 2: dollars seventy eight, so a bit of a surprise.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Shane, good to catch up with you.

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Speaker 1: That was Shane Soley. They're from Harbord Asset Management. For

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Speaker 1: more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to news talks.

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