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Speaker 1: With us now is Brad Awson in the Metrics Principal Economists, Hey, Brad,

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Speaker 1: good evening. Well, so the job market's tough, isn't it

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Speaker 1: It is, and we've continued to get further numbers that

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Speaker 1: suggest how tough it is. The latest figures for September

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Speaker 1: showing there are twenty nearly twenty one thousand fewer jobs

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Speaker 1: in the New Zealand economy in September twenty twenty four

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Speaker 1: compared to a year ago. You know, that's a pretty

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Speaker 1: tough hit. And also most about half of those job

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Speaker 1: losses coming through in Auckland, with around ten five hundred

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Speaker 1: odd jobs fewer in the largest city than a year before.

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Speaker 1: Those hits very much coming through. We've seen now no

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Speaker 1: jobs growth at all since about March this year, and

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Speaker 1: in fact we've either seen declines or things remaining flat,

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Speaker 1: so really continuing to add the pressure there when households

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Speaker 1: are of course trying to find jobs to pay for

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Speaker 1: life as it goes round, but fewer and fewer job

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Speaker 1: opportunities coming up. Brad. What sectors are being hit? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the biggest hit so far in terms of sectors has

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Speaker 1: been construction, around about just over ten thousand fewer jobs

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Speaker 1: in construction than a year ago. But then after construction

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Speaker 1: sort of smattering across the board, around seven thousand fewer

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Speaker 1: jobs and admin and support services and that includes labor,

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Speaker 1: higher and temporary roles. You've got six thousand odd fewer

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Speaker 1: roles across accommodation and food services. Again, we're not traveling

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Speaker 1: as much across the country and doing domestic travel, and

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Speaker 1: so that's taken a hit. Manufacturings down around five thousand,

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Speaker 1: professional services down nearly three thy eight hundred in retail

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Speaker 1: as well, So there's quite a lot of areas that

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Speaker 1: have very much been hit. Interestingly, and I think encouragingly,

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Speaker 1: the healthcare sector is the one area that has seen

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Speaker 1: some pre sustained jobs growth. Over ten thousand more jobs

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Speaker 1: in healthcare than a year ago, so that area really

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Speaker 1: holding us up. And so when do we expect to

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Speaker 1: hit five percent unemployment? Well, we'll have the numbers out

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Speaker 1: next Wednesday, which we expect at the moment will show

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Speaker 1: that five percent unemployment rate, and we think it will

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Speaker 1: then continue to increase just a bit more over the

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Speaker 1: next couple of quarters. We think that the unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: now is going to peak at around five point four

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Speaker 1: percent around mid next year, and it's just in their

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Speaker 1: awful period now. Heither we're between now and sort of

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Speaker 1: mid next year. As people are slowly but surely moving

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Speaker 1: off their higher fixed income mortgages through to those lower rates,

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Speaker 1: you'll start to get more and more people that are

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Speaker 1: still going to be losing their jobs until there is

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Speaker 1: more support, there's more stimulus coming into the economy. So

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Speaker 1: we're in a very tough, very tricky period for the

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Speaker 1: economy at the moment. Good stuff, Brad, Thanks so much, appreciated.

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Speaker 1: Brad Awsome, Infometric principle Economist. For more from Heather Duplessy

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Speaker 1: Allen Drive, listen live to news talks the'd be from

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