1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Jamie McKay Country Hosters with us LO Jamie good Ay, 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: Heather and that fifty six cent dollars obviously helping exporters 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: in this country, including Zespri. How's the forecast looking for them? Well, 4 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: they've just released their November forecast, and the per tray 5 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: returns for all fruit groups from the latest forecast are 6 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,600 Speaker 1: up from the August one look at and these are 7 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: telephone book numbers sort of at a per hectare level. 8 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: Record returns in our forecast for all fruit groups of 9 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: zespri or keyw fruit, for example, a hectare and you 10 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 1: need to own one of these heather of some gold 11 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: will return you somewhere between one hundred and seventy nine 12 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: and one hundred and eighty six thousand dollars for hectia. 13 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: That's a fantastic return. I caught up with the chief 14 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: executive of Zespriy Jason to Break in Japan early today 15 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: on my show. So Zespre's got a record crop of 16 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: two hundred and fifteen million trays. They've found a home 17 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: for it right around the world. They've got really strong 18 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 1: demand in Europe and North America, and North America even 19 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: better now that Trump's dropped as tariffs. They've also had 20 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: a favorable exchange rate, as we mentioned fifty six US 21 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 1: sense and Zesbury will release its final forecast for the 22 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: twenty five twenty six season in February. But look like 23 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: a lot of the primary sector, it's an industry on 24 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: a high at the moment. Yeah, what's going on with 25 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: the dairy farmers. Well, it's interesting because you know, we're 26 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: hearing record returns for Zestbury or for keyw fruit red 27 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 1: meats at an all time high. Dairy. The jury's out 28 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 1: a wee bit because you know what happens when the 29 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: price gets as high as it has ten bucks and more, 30 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: the tap gets turned on right around the world. And 31 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: even Kiwi farmers themselves are guilty, and I don't blame 32 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: them at all. So, you know, like farmings like paint 33 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: by numbers in some ways, you put stuff in the 34 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: front end of a cow and out the back end 35 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: or near the back end, comes to milk. So when 36 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: you've got a ten dollar payout, you can afford to 37 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 1: supplementary feed them. And farmers did go chasing the high 38 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: payout at the end of last season, and that's almost 39 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 1: working against them now. So what we've seen with the 40 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: GDT auction last night or on Tuesday night, should I 41 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: say seventh consecutive drop, we're at a new fifteen month low. 42 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: ASB senior economist Chris Tennant Brown said, the early signs 43 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: were that milk production would be very strong this season. 44 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: They opened ASB with a very I guess conservative at 45 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: the time forecast of nine to seventy five. Fonterra, as 46 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 1: far as I know, is still sticking at ten bucks, 47 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,359 Speaker 1: but look the way it's going at the moment, weather 48 00:02:55,440 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: providing that ten dollars is certainly under threat. So Fonterra 49 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: will come out in early December. I think it's December 50 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: the fifth, and they will have a look at that 51 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,959 Speaker 1: milk forecast price for the twenty five twenty sixth season, 52 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: the futures market, interestingly is at nine dollars sixty two, 53 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 1: and perhaps more worryingly, although it's a long time out 54 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 1: and we've got a lot of water to go under 55 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: the bridge before then, twenty six to twenty seven season 56 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: is at eight dollars ninety three. And I can speak 57 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 1: for dairy farmers on this one. Ten bucks was a 58 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: great price. Nine to fifty is still a good price 59 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: when you start getting under nine bucks. Bearing in mind 60 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: dairy and Zed said the cost of production something like 61 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: eight dollars sixty, it becomes a wee bit more marginal. Jamie, 62 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: thank you very much. Good to talk to you. And 63 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: when I was going to say, we'll talk to you 64 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: again on Thursday, but it is Thursday, isn't it. Jamie McKay, 65 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: Host of the Country. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drave, 66 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: listen live to news Talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, 67 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.