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Speaker 1: Husky. So today as we head on, if we haven't

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Speaker 1: already into the easter break, we'll get our latest inflation

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Speaker 1: read suggestion being it might be a little bit hotter

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Speaker 1: than we thought because certain things are going on in

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Speaker 1: the economy. So what figure are we expecting? What's to

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Speaker 1: tell us about the recovery moving forward? Asb ceo vertrria

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Speaker 1: short as with us Victoria, good morning to you, good morning,

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Speaker 1: and I am ailing to test you outside your wheelhouse.

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Speaker 1: But we're feeling fragile envioent, you know at the moment,

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Speaker 1: a little bit fragile.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think at the moment, we're certainly

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Speaker 2: waking up and each day a day feels like there's

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Speaker 2: something new. And the only certainty right now is that

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Speaker 2: this volatility is set to continue for a little while.

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Speaker 2: And that's certainly what we're hearing from our customers.

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Speaker 1: Infometrics this morning have suggested all of whats going on

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Speaker 1: in the world could knock one point four percent off

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Speaker 1: our GDP, in other words, from two point four percent

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Speaker 1: down to one. What does that mean for the country?

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Speaker 2: Do you think? Yeah, look, I think if I just

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Speaker 2: kind of step it through our by the way, our

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Speaker 2: fodis are a little lower than that in terms of

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Speaker 2: the impact on GDP, although you know we would say

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Speaker 2: that there are it's moving around a lot, right, So

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Speaker 2: the way that we think about inflation, you know, we're

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Speaker 2: expecting to see inflation edge up slightly and that will

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Speaker 2: be driven by tradable goods or things that we import,

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Speaker 2: but we think that domestic or non tradable will decline.

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Speaker 2: So net net, we think will still be in the

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Speaker 2: inflation range. We'll see tack up of that to perhaps

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Speaker 2: two point four, but then we do still think it's

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Speaker 2: going to float down towards set mid range on what

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Speaker 2: that means?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, sorry, what's neutral cash?

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Speaker 2: Right, So we're thinking that the ocr could now go

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Speaker 2: a little lower. Previously we were thinking above three, but

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Speaker 2: now we think it could be a below three neutral

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Speaker 2: or a little bit more. Astometory rates that are around

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Speaker 2: two points in five.

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Speaker 1: So how much of this do you think is about

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Speaker 1: literally what's happening versus what's happening in people's minds and

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Speaker 1: we're just freaking out of it, and that's got confidence

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Speaker 1: written all over it.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think certainly the business is the business. Generally

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Speaker 2: confidence had started to reappear, but We're now seeing a

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Speaker 2: lot of things go on hold, so there is it

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Speaker 2: is certainly dampening confidence generally. But when you have a

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Speaker 2: look at some customers in our top ten exporters to

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Speaker 2: the USO meat, dairy wine as example, they are having

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Speaker 2: to do some real work to scenario plan out alternative

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Speaker 2: markets but also where they might benefit as well.

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Speaker 1: This mortgage business that's going on at the moment, the

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Speaker 1: fixed rates are being chopped left, right and center. Does

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Speaker 1: that drive demand? Are we still looking to borrow as

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Speaker 1: money going out the door?

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Speaker 2: Look, I think where that's really paying through is in

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Speaker 2: home lending and also just interest rate relief. So this

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Speaker 2: morning I'm speaking of which this morning we announced another

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Speaker 2: drop to our rates, so you'll see rates in the

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Speaker 2: one and eighteen months down below five percent. Now what

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Speaker 2: that does is it provides a little bit relief, a

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Speaker 2: little bit of relief so that this inflation does take

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Speaker 2: up a bit, households should be able to withstand it,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's important.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff, Nice to talk to you, have a good

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Speaker 1: weekend as well asb CEO victory is short with us

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Speaker 1: those aforementioned one year at four nine nine, eighteen months

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Speaker 1: at four nine nine. That's a drop of twenty six

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Speaker 1: and twenty basis points. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,

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Speaker 1: listen live to News Talks at B from six am weekdays,

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Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio